Cross-Strait Progress Requires Innovative Thinking

Cross-Strait Progress Requires Innovative Thinking
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 14, 2012

Summary: The two sides must relate to each other on the basis of peace. They can expand economic exchanges. They can increase cultural understanding. But democracy is essential. The two sides must interact. They must implement democratic reforms. Only then can they talk about how to solve the "one China" problem. Only then can they put people at ease. Only then will the people have confidence in cross-strait policy.

Full Text below:

Let us take a long term historical perspective. We have the best opportunity in over a century to promote cross-Strait interaction. Yet we have reached a bottleneck. What we need now from authorities on both sides is boldness of vision, generosity of spirit, and decisiveness of action. They must plan their moves, break the current impasse, and create new opportunities.

Since President Ma Ying-jeou took office in 2008, the two sides have broken through many barriers. Direct flights, financial cooperation, opening up the island to Mainland tourism, signing ECFA, exchange visits between increasingly higher ranking officials, even talk of military cooperation. These show that cross-Strait interaction is moving in the right direction, that they are more and more far-reaching, and that non-governmental economic exchanges are thriving. But despite the optimism, dark clouds linger. The public on Taiwan remains uncertain of the Mainland, and this uncertainty is growing. The public is increasingly dubious about the government's Mainland policy.

There are several facets to these concerns. First, compare conditions on the two sides of the Strait. The Mainland economy has risen. It has become the second largest economy in the world. Its strength has increased. Mainland China's influence in the world has increased accordingly. Conversely, this has reduced Taiwan's breathing space. Taiwan businesses must rely on Mainland factories and markets. But economic reliance does not imply political confidence. The public on Taiwan has deep misgivings about the Mainland's lack of democracy and human rights. The greater the economic reliance, the greater the fear that we may lose our political sovereignty, and that our fate will be sealed. "Do not let Taiwan become the next Hong Kong" has become a political slogan. This ambivalence is often exploited by politicians. It has become a pretext to smear others as "Communists."

Secondly, consider Taiwan's predicament. The Mainland has risen. Over the past several years Taiwan has been undergoing painful economic transformation. Electronics is becoming a sunset industry. The new leading industry has yet to emerge. The government lacks direction. The people lack confidence. Unemployment is increasing. Salaries are falling instead of rising. The public watches as the Mainland rises. Under the circumstances, people cannot help but feel frightened. Add to this the opening of Taiwan to Mainland tourism. The enormous purchasing power of Mainland tourists has enabled Taiwan's tourism industry to boom. But it has also undercut the Taiwan public's self-esteem. The contrast in their economic status humiliates them. This adds to their distrust of the government.

Thirdly, the government lacks direction. Its current framework is purely negative. This includes its "no [immediate] reunification, no independence, and no use of force" policy, its "mutual non-recognition" stance, and its "mutual non-repudiation" stance. None of these can break the deadlock. None of these can advance cross-Strait relations or create a new way to relate. The government lacks clear policy principles. It lacks a sense of direction. No one knows where the government's current policy is headed.

Our side is in decline. The other side is in ascendancy. The public cannot help but worry that one day the Mainland will have unlimited economic power. Taiwan will then be unable to extricate itself. Such concerns are inevitable. Therefore the government's task is to be bold and resolute. It must formulate a thoughtful and principled Mainland policy. This will enable it to resist the Mainland's increasingly urgent calls for political negotiations. This will also increase cohesion among the public on Taiwan. It will persuade the people to find a way out of this dilemma together.

Consider the current cross-Strait situation. Economic exchanges began once ECFA was signed. Many provisions have been implemented. Cultural exchanges have been frequent and close. Beijing has proposed an ECFA style cultural agreement. But given the current cross-Strait situation, the cultural industry needs intellectual property rights protection for its cultural products. The issue of access can be addressed for the moment by ECFA. Therefore it is not a matter of urgency.

Hu Jintao proposed a "cross-strait peace agreement" at the 18th National Congress. He responded to issues advanced by the Ma administration during the recent presidential election. The government can give it priority. It can ease the pressure, enabling the two sides to establish a long-lasting framework for peace.

The Mainland economy has a powerful attraction. The highest priority of Cross-Strait policy must be to increase Taiwan's breathing space. We must reclaim the initiative. We must lay down certain principles for cross-Strait negotiations. Democracy is one of Taiwan's most important cornerstones. Therefore, we should posit a "democratic China" as a common goal for both sides of the Strait. Only after the Mainland adopts democracy can the two sides begin negotiations on cross-Strait reunification. This would provide Taiwan with much needed time and space. We could then wait for the Mainland to undergo democratic reforms and for its society to mature. One day the Mainland will adopt democracy and the rule of law. The people will have adequate protection for their human rights, including freedom of speech. They will enjoy economic development, humane care, and balanced development. They can then talk about cross-Strait reunification or independence. It will no longer be a problem.

The two sides must relate to each other on the basis of peace. They can expand economic exchanges. They can increase cultural understanding. But democracy is essential. The two sides must interact. They must implement democratic reforms. Only then can they talk about how to solve the "one China" problem. Only then can they put people at ease. Only then will the people have confidence in cross-strait policy.

開創兩岸正向發展 需要新思維
    2012-11-14
    中國時報

　從長遠的歷史眼光來看，兩岸現在的交流與互動，應該是一百多年來最好的時光。然而，它也走到了一個瓶頸，亟需兩岸當局以大氣魄、大胸襟、大作為，規畫方向與步驟，突破當前僵局，開創全新契機。

　事實上，二○○八年馬政府執政以來，兩岸已突破相當多的侷限。直航、金融合作、開放陸客觀光、簽訂ＥＣＦＡ、層級提高的官員互訪、軍事合作的討論等，種種跡象顯示，兩岸的互動不僅朝向正面開展，且日漸深化，民間的經濟交流活動也充滿活力。然而，在這一片樂觀中，仍有烏雲慢慢籠罩，那就是台灣民間對大陸的不確定感愈來愈強，對政府大陸政策的疑慮也愈來愈深。

　這樣的疑慮來自於幾個方面。第一，兩岸形勢的對比。大陸經濟的崛起，已成為世界第二大經濟體，而隨著國力的增強，中國在世界的影響力日增，相對的也壓縮了台灣的生存空間，同時也迫使台灣的企業不得不倚賴中國大陸的工廠與市場。問題即在於，經濟上的倚賴，不等於政治上的態度。台灣人對大陸缺乏民主人權的種種危害，疑慮日深。經濟上愈是倚賴，政治上反而更害怕喪失獨立自主權力，成為被決定的命運。「不要讓台灣成為下一個香港」變成一個政治口號。這種矛盾心態，常常被政客利用，而成為各種抹黑抹紅的藉口。

　第二，台灣的困境。相對於大陸的崛起，台灣這幾年的經濟發展出現轉型的困境。電子產業走向黃昏，新興主導產業無法出現，整個政府缺乏主導的方向，民間信心喪失，失業上升，薪水不升反降。這種情勢下，人民看見大陸的崛起，不免感到心驚。再加上此時開放陸客來台觀光，他們強大的消費力，讓台灣觀光產業一片榮景，但也讓台灣人的自尊心在對比下感到委曲。這就更增加對政府的不信任。

　第三，政府缺乏方向感。現有的架構，其實都是「否定敘述」。包括「不統不獨不武」，從「互不承認」到「互不否認」，都只是解開了僵局，不能為兩岸的正向發展，開創新局。政府缺乏明確政策原則與方向，以致於無人知道現在的政策最後要走向何方？

　在此種「我消彼長」的對比下，民間不免憂心有朝一日被大陸無限的經濟力吸納進去，再無脫身餘地，疑慮必然產生。因此，政府當前之要務，乃是拿出魄力，擘畫一個有思想、有理念的大陸政策，一方面是抵擋大陸愈來愈急迫的政治談判壓力，另一方面是以此凝聚台灣共識，說服民眾，共同走出困境。

　考察當前兩岸情勢，經濟的交流在簽訂ＥＣＦＡ之後，許多子項目逐一展開，而文化交流方面也相當有活力，交流頻繁密切。雖然北京提出比照ＥＣＦＡ簽訂「文化協議」的倡議，但就兩岸現況來看，文化產業最主要的是智慧財產權保護及文化產品准入的課題，目前都可由ＥＣＦＡ解決，因此並無急迫性。

　反而是胡錦濤在十八大中所提出的「兩岸和平協議」，呼應馬總統在今年選前拋出的議題，政府可以優先予以考慮。因為它可以緩和壓力，為兩岸設定一個可長可久的和平架構。

　此時我們該思考的最重要策略是：在大陸經濟的強大吸力下，如何在政策上設定議題，為台灣爭取最大、最有利的空間。簡言之，我們必須化被動為主動，為兩岸的談判設定一些基本原則。而民主是台灣最重要的基石。因此，我們應該設定，「民主中國」是兩岸人民共同的目標，唯有在大陸達到民主之後，才可以進入兩岸統一的談判。如此一來，台灣就有足夠的時間與空間，等待大陸的民主改革與社會成熟。等到有一天，大陸已經完成了民主、法治，人民可以享有足夠的人權保障與言論自由，經濟發展與人文關懷也平衡開展，再談兩岸的統一或獨立，就不是一個困難的課題了。

　以兩岸和平為原則，以經濟持續深化交流，以文化達到深度了解，但以「民主中國」為必要條件，兩岸互助，進行民主體制改革，最後才談如何解決「一中」之後的問題。唯有如此才能讓台灣人民安心，讓人民對兩岸政策有信心。