Perceptible Economic Improvements Require Local Employment and Social Welfare

Perceptible Economic Improvements Require Local Employment and Social Welfare
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 13, 2012

Summary: The public on Taiwan is wracked with anxiety. Individuals and businesses have lost hope for the future. The Ma administration has become the target of public criticism. But the public does not expect much from the opposition either. The entire nation has lost its sense of direction and optimism. It has been sapped of its vitality. This newspaper plans to publish a series of editorials suggesting the direction the economy and cross-Strait interaction should take. We hope administration officials will consider them and act upon them. We hope they will enable the public on Taiwan to overcome difficulties and find a way out of their current plight.

Full Text Below:

Preface: The public on Taiwan is wracked with anxiety. Individuals and businesses have lost hope for the future. The Ma administration has become the target of public criticism. But the public does not expect much from the opposition either. The entire nation has lost its sense of direction and optimism. It has been sapped of its vitality. This newspaper plans to publish a series of editorials suggesting the direction the economy and cross-Strait interaction should take. We hope administration officials will consider them and act upon them. We hope they will enable the public on Taiwan to overcome difficulties and find a way out of their current plight.

Between 1970 and 1980, the ROC government was forced to with withdraw from the United Nations. It was forced to break off relations with the United States. These were major setbacks. It was also hit by two energy crises. Its current plight does not begin to compare. Yet it was able to negotiate these crises. It survived these difficult times. It could do so because people were willing to work together and possessed an indomitable spirit. Contrast then with now. Conditions on Taiwan now are far better than they were back then. Public enthusiasm and industry vitality have not diminished. The problem is a lack of general direction and forward momentum.

Taiwan's survival and growth are rooted in its economy and democracy. Economic development must be sustained, and democracy must be consolidated. These are the two cornerstones of ROC national growth. The government must take into account both internal and external conditions. It must establish guidelines and a direction, policy objectives and priorities. It must build consensus through the democratic process. It must make clear where individuals and businesses on Taiwan are headed. It must offer a vision for the future, and a concrete blueprint for its realization.

The Ma administration has drawn up numerous policy plans, including the Golden Decade Plan and the Economic Momentum Promotion Plan. These may be well-intentioned. But they were drawn up behind closed doors. out of touch with the pulse of society. The result of its armchair strategizing has been policies whose impact remain imperceptible. They were full of sound and fury, but signified nothing. What Taiwan needs most is a change in direction, towards a more feasible way of doing things. It must start by addressing economic issues that bear on people's lives. People are suffering. Their real wages have regressed to what they were 14 years ago. Consumer prices are rising. Housing prices are soaring. The economy is declining. Their jobs are no longer secure. Young people in their twenties and thirties are having trouble finding jobs. Salaries are low. They are afraid to get married. Those already married are afraid to have children. They are afraid their pensions may dry up. They have no hope for the future. These economic circumstances can hardly be blamed exclusively on the "macroclimate."

Sustainable economic development must be consistent with public welfare and local Taiwan conditions. The economy has grown nearly 4% per annum over the past decade or so. The government must ask itself why real wages have not increased accordingly. Two years ago the economy improved. The growth rate was a record 10,88%. So why has it remained imperceptible to the public? The answer is that the economy is overly dependent on exports in the ICT and other industries. It is overly dependent upon Mainland factories, upon low-cost, low margin, OEM exports. As a result fluctuations in the economy lead to disconnects in employment, wages, and economic growth. Income disparities arise. Corporate social responsibility becomes decoupled from local Taiwan development.

The government must change its thinking about industrial development and economic growth. It must promote a new model that integrates job growth and public welfare. It must establish testable long-term and short-term goals and detailed plans for implemenation. It must supplement this with educational reform and human resources policies. It must rekindle public hope and enthusiasm. It must unite the power of change and progress. It must move toward a new economic vision. Its policies cannot be exhaustive. The ruling administration must have a clear sense of priorities. It must not muddy the waters. It must not announce today that it is doing this, then tomorrow that it is doing that. It must not change its direction from day to day. If it does, it will never reach its destination. It must establish a new direction for the economy. This is its most important task. Merely providing cheap land, tax incentives, and cheap foreign labor, cannot bring about change and hope.

Distributive justice is also essential for sustainable economic development. The gaps between rich and poor, urban and rural, North and South continue to expand. The tax system remains unfair. Housing prices are too high in the major cities. Social welfare resource allocations are inequitable. Central and local fiscal revenue and expenditure allocations are disproportionate. Closely related to these are concerns over hidden debt in national labor insurance, and pensions for military veterans, civil service employees, and public school teachers. These highlight the problem of resource allocation and generational justice. They endanger the country's fiscal health and long term economic growth. Without drastic reform, fiscal and economic crises will quickly emerge.

But the promotion of economic growth runs counter to scrimping and saving on public welfare. Tax reform and the redistribution of resources will inevitably lead to social and class antagonisms. Therefore the government must establish a direction for reform. It must establish priorities. This will enable economic revival and distributive justice to go hand in hand. It should consider convening a National Conference to deal with highly sensitive pension fund reforms and other fiscal and distributive justice issues.

Democracy is another cornerstone of Taiwan's survival and growth. Is the most effective weapon against Beijing's reunification tactics. Mainland China has risen. Taiwan must promote cross-Strait peace and development and establish cross-Strait free trade. Cross-Strait economic integration has accelerated. But the government must assure the public that it is committed to maintaining Taiwan's economic primacy. It must assure them that Taiwan will not become "Hong Kong-ized." The government must offer a clear vision of cross-Strait peace and development. This will avoid unnecessary doubts and internal opposition. Once cross-Strait policy goals are clear, a new climate will emerge. Social cohesion will be significantly enhanced.

In short, a new direction will increase forward momentum. This is the first task of the ruling administration. It is also the way out of our current policy quagmire.

有感經濟 須結合在地就業與生活福祉
    2012-11-13
    中國時報

　前言：近來台灣社會充滿焦慮感，人民和企業對未來茫然失措，馬政府成為眾矢之的，但民眾對反對黨也沒有太多期待，整個國家失去方向與動能，元氣渙散；本報從經濟方向、兩岸互動與再現領導力，規畫系列社論提供宏觀建言，盼執政者深思並有所作為，帶領台灣突破困境，走出一條路來。

　在一九七○至一九八○年代，台灣曾經歷退出聯合國、中美斷交等重大挫折，又遭遇兩次能源危機衝擊，處境危殆非今時可比，但台灣卻能履險如夷，安度難關，其關鍵就在於全民有共同努力的方向與不屈不撓的奮進精神。相較之下，今日台灣各種條件遠勝過去，人民的熱情及企業活力亦未消失，問題核心是須找回台灣發展的方向與前進動能。

　台灣生存發展的根基在經濟和民主，經濟永續發展及民主不斷深化，是構築國家發展方向及台灣願景的兩大基石。政府的職責要審酌內外大環境，指引國家大方向，擬定施政目標和優先順序，並透過民主程序，凝聚共識，讓人民和企業很清楚的認知台灣要往哪裡走，未來的願景是什麼，具體實踐藍圖為何。

　馬政府提出很多施政規畫例如「黃金十年」計畫、「經濟動能推升方案」等，或許立意良好，但閉門造車，和社會脈動脫節，以致流為紙上作業及形式大於實質的「無感」施政。事實上，台灣現在最需要的是找出改變的方向與具體可行的做法。從攸關民生的經濟問題切入，人民切身之痛是實質薪資退回到十四年前水準，又面對物價漲、房價飆，更擔心景氣差、工作不保；二、三十歲的年輕人找工作困難，薪水又低，不敢結婚，結婚又不敢生孩子，將來還怕沒有退休金可領，對未來沒有希望，而這樣的經濟情境豈全是外在大環境不佳所致！

　經濟永續發展必須和人民福祉及台灣這塊土地結合在一起。政府須徹底反省何以十多年來平均每年近四％的經濟成長率不能反映到實質薪資增加？何以前年景氣好轉、經濟成長率創下一○.八八％佳績，但人民依然無感？問題癥結就在過於依賴資通訊等產業出口，依賴「以大陸為工廠」，依賴低成本、低毛利的代工出口模式，造成景氣波動加大，就業及薪資和經濟成長脫節，所得分配差距擴大，企業社會責任和台灣本土發展脫鉤。

　政府唯有徹底改變這樣的產業發展與經濟思維，提出一套能夠結合在地就業及人民生活福祉的新成長模式，訂定可供檢驗的長短期目標及有力配套作為，並輔以教育及人才政策改革，才能重燃人民的希望和熱情，凝聚改變與進步的動力，朝向新的經濟願景邁進。施政無法同時間面面俱到，執政者必須想清楚輕重緩急、不可繼續模糊以對，今天宣布要做這個、明天又改變政策，天天轉彎，永遠也到不了目的地。尋找、確立經濟的新方向，是「重中之重」的台灣發展課題。若只是在提供廉價土地、租稅優惠、增加廉價外勞等枝節問題上打轉，絕不可能帶來改變與希望。

　分配正義是維繫經濟永續發展另一重要環節。台灣貧富、城鄉、南北差距持續擴大，和稅制不公平、都會區房價過高、社福資源分配扭曲及中央和地方財政收支劃分不當等，息息相關；最近引發全國關切的勞工保險、軍公教退休金及國民年金等隱藏性債務，不僅凸顯資源分配及世代正義問題，更危及國家財政及經濟持續發展。若不大刀闊斧改革現狀，財政及經濟危機將快速浮現。

　但是，推動節衣縮食的福利削減和拚經濟背道而馳，稅制改革及資源重新分配更難免引發社會及階級對立，因此，政府須確立改革大方向，並訂定優先緩急順序，讓經濟再造和分配正義能併行不悖。召開國是會議處理高度敏感的各類退休基金改革及相關財政及分配正義等課題，應是可考慮的積極作為。

　民主是台灣生存發展的另一基石，也是台灣面對北京對台統戰的最有效利器。中國大陸崛起後，推動兩岸和平發展及建立兩岸自由貿易關係，是台灣必須走的正確道路，但是，在兩岸經濟加速統合的過程中，政府須讓人民知道如何致力維持台灣經濟的主體性，不會走向「香港化」；政府更須清楚地告訴人民兩岸和平發展的願景在哪裡，避免不必要疑慮與內部對立。兩岸政策方向與目標清楚明確，自會有煥然一新的氣象，社會凝聚力也會大幅增強。

　總之，指引台灣發展新方向，激發前進的動能，是執政者首要之務，也是步出當前施政泥淖的關鍵一步。