Hu Xi Handover: Peaceful Development Requires Democratic Validation

Hu Xi Handover: Peaceful Development Requires Democratic Validation
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 7, 2012

Summary: Tomorrow the Chinese Communist Party will convene its 18th National Congress. The old and new party and government leadership will undergo a four month long transition. The Hu-Wen team will exit the political scene. The Xi-Li team will carry the torch. Speaking about the past decade, Wen Jiabao told Xi and Li, "Without assurances of political reform. the fruits of economic reform will be lost." The irony is that Wen Jiabao's integrity is currently in question.

Full Text below:

Tomorrow the Chinese Communist Party will convene its 18th National Congress. The old and new party and government leadership will undergo a four month long transition. The Hu-Wen team will exit the political scene. The Xi-Li team will carry the torch.

The Hu-Wen regime's banner was "peaceful development." Over the past decade, people have begun to refer to Mainland China and the United States as the G2. It has become the world's second largest economy. It is the world's market as well as the world's factory. Economic development has quadrupled. Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted above the poverty line. The 2008 Beijing Olympics and the 2010 Shanghai World Expo freshened up Mainland China's image. Mainland China survived the 2008 global financial tsunami with little fuss. It swiftly rebuilt in the wake of the Wenchuan earthquake. It successfully docked the manned Shenzhou Nine with the Tiangong One. The Liaoning aircraft carrier is now operational. These are all evidence of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao's record of achievements in "peaceful development," internal and external. It was only in August of this year that the conflict over the sovereignty of the Diaoyutai Islands replaced the atmosphere of "peaceful development." The United States and Japan have a clear impression of Mainland China's "development" over the past decade. Most of the world give high marks to Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao's decade of governance.

But Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao have done little in the way of political reform. Economic development and political stability are to some extent mutually contradictory. On the one hand, economic development reduces political conflict. On the other hand, it stores up energy for future political conflict. The 2012 Bo Xilai incident underscores the need for political reform. In 2010 Liu Xiaobo won the Nobel Peace Prize. That underscored the political problems bedeviling the Mainland. Internet censorship cannot suppress awareness of tens of thousands of "mass protests" each year. These constitute a raging volcano. Hong Kong has reacted strongly to Article 23 of the Basic Law and to "national education." These and the highly anticipated direct elections of the Chief Executive in 2017 are seen as more than merely local matters. They remind the Chinese Communist Party that it must be vigilant and clear about its authoritarian rule and its democratic responsibilities. The CCP's "peaceful development" is taking place on the mouth of a volcano. Will the government's economic performance reduce political corruption and conflict? Or will it lead to increased political corruption and precipitate even greater conflict? Will the government be able to maintain a "harmonious society?" These have yet to undergo "democratic validation."

During the Hu-Wen decade, the CCP made major breakthroughs in cross-Strait relations. But it also had a major blind spot. The 2005 Lien-Hu Meeting put us on the road to peaceful development in cross-Strait relations. This was a world-changing event. The Hu-Wen regime set its sights on a "cross-Strait peace agreement" to be signed during its term of office. But this was not to be, partly due to hesitation on the part of the Ma administration in Taipei. Partly due to Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao's failure to make timely changes to their cross-Strait rhetoric. In order to achieve a "peace agreement," the two parties must first be on an equal basis. Without a "big roof China" framework, how can that happen? Over the past decade, the Hu-Wen regime's cross-Strait framework has indeed evolved in a progressive and pragmatic manner. It has evolved from "peaceful development" in 2005, to "one China, different interpretations" during the March 2008 Bush-Hu Hotline conversation. It has evolved from the "Hu Six Points" on New Years Eve 2008, to "relevant current provisions" (constitutional) in March 2012. Sadly it stopped just short of a "cross-Strait peace agreement." If one wishes to see farther, one must ascend to a higher level. The higher level is the "big roof China" concept.

Let us sum up the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao decade. It achieved "peaceful development." But it also enabled Bo Xilai and his ilk. On the one hand, cronyist corruption ran rampant. On the other hand, the "Chongqing mode" reflected the disparity between the rich and the poor, to the point where Maoist thinking almost made a comeback. Add to this the ticking bomb that is the "Wukan Village mode," and Hong Kong's aspirations toward democracy, which have become increasingly national in character. Clearly the Xi-Li regime will not be able to silence dissent the way it silenced Liu Xiaobo and Chen Guangcheng. It will not be able to prevent Internet users from circumventing the Internet police and the Great Firewall of China. Still less can it detect and prevent hundreds of "mass protests" everywhere. If the Xi-Li regime wants to maintain "peaceful development," and a "harmonious society," then "democratic validation" is unavoidable. As for cross-Strait relations, the core of "peaceful development" is "democratic development." This goes without saying.

Two personality traits of the newly inaugurated General Secretary Xi Jinping are consider highly relevant. One. His father, Xi Zhongxun was purged during the "Liu Zhidan Incident." During the Cultural Revolution, at age 16, Xi Jinping was "sent down" to Yan'an County Liangjiahe Village. Two. Xi Jinping has over 20 years of cross-Strait experience in the Fujian, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions, which were among the first to liberalize. Will his family experience make him more enlightened about political reform? Will his cross-Strait experience enable him to better understand democracy? That remains to be seen. Hu and Wen established new highs for "peaceful development." Xi and Li should be able to begin "democratic validation."

Speaking about the past decade, Wen Jiabao told Xi and Li, "Without assurances of political reform. the fruits of economic reform will be lost." The irony is that Wen Jiabao's integrity is currently in question.

胡習交接：和平發展需要民主驗證
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.11.07 01:46 am

中共十八大明日揭幕，黨政新舊領導班子將啟動約四個月的交接期，胡溫團隊退場，由習李體制接班。

胡溫體制的歷史標誌是「和平發展」。在過去十年中，中國開始與美國並稱Ｇ２，成為全世界第二大經濟體，以世界工廠兼為世界市場，經濟發展翻了四倍，數億人脫離貧窮線，二○○八年的京奧與二○一○年的上海世博刷新了中國的形象，又相對平順地度過二○○八年全球金融海嘯，再迅速從汶川大地震中復建，又完成神州九號與天宮一號的載人宇航對接，再有遼寧號航空母艦開始服役…；這些紀錄，皆留下了胡溫體制對內及對外「和平發展」的足印。一直到今年八月掀起釣魚台事件，「和平」的氛圍雖已被劍拔弩張所取代，但從美日的因應來看，卻也為這十年來中國的「發展」果實作了鮮明的註腳。因此，實事求是地說，舉世議論大多給了胡溫的十年治理相當正向的評價。

然而，胡溫在政治改革上卻幾乎仍是一張白卷。經濟發展與政治穩定之間存有一個弔詭：一方面經濟發展緩和了政治衝突，但另一方面也積蓄並升高了政治衝突的能量。二○一二年的薄熙來事件正是政治改革大缺口的大暴露，二○一○年劉曉波獲得諾貝爾和平獎，則是從這個大缺口所見到的政治病灶，網路管制的捉襟見肘及全年推估逾十數萬次的「群體性事件」，更是這個大缺口裡猶如火山熔岩奔流飛濺的真實景觀。此外，香港對基本法第二十三條及「國民教育」的強烈反撲，及二○一七年特首直選的預期；皆不能視為只是香港一地之事，而是提醒中共必須對其專制統治的民主債務應有全面的警覺與清償。在這個火山口上的「和平發展」，經濟績效究竟是降低政治腐敗及衝突的因素，或反而將是累積政治腐敗及衝突的成因，以致最後還能否維持「和諧社會」，這些皆是尚待「民主驗證」的未定之數。

胡溫十年，在兩岸關係上有大突破，但亦有大盲點。二○○五年的連胡會，將兩岸關係帶上「和平發展」的道路，這是扭轉乾坤的一手；但胡溫體制原以簽成《兩岸和平協議》為任內目標卻未完成，則一方面是由於台北馬政府的猶豫，另一方面更因胡溫未能及時作出更進一步的論述調整。因為，若欲簽定《和平協議》，勢須首先建立兩造簽約主體的對等地位；則若無「大屋頂中國」的思維，何以成事？十年來，胡溫體制的兩岸思維，由二○○五年的「和平發展」，至二○○八年三月「布胡熱線」的「一中各表」，又至二○○八年除夕的「胡六點」，再至二○一二年三月「吳胡會」的「現行相關規定（憲法）底線論」，其間確實出現了一種進取且務實的發展思維，惜乎卻止於尚欠臨門一腳的《兩岸和平協議》。欲窮千里目，更上一層樓；其實，樓上即在「大屋頂中國」之下。

總結胡溫十年，固有「和平發展」的成績，但如薄熙來案所反映者，一方面權貴腐敗已至不可思議的程度，另一方面「重慶模式」也反襯出貧富不均甚至已嚴重到民心希望毛式思維回潮的地步；再加上「烏坎村式」的未爆彈所在皆有，香港的民主訴求也愈來愈具全國性的示範作用；因而，舉目所見，習李體制未來不應再用對待劉曉波、陳光誠的方法來壓制異議，用網路警察去防堵翻牆的網民亦是堵不勝堵，每日各地數百起的「群體性事件」更是防不勝防；習李若欲維持「和平發展」、「和諧社會」的成果，「民主驗證」即是無可迴避的過程。至於兩岸關係，「和平發展」的核心思維是在「民主發展」，更是毋庸贅言。

新任總書記習近平的兩項人格烙印最受矚目。一、其父習仲勛因「劉志丹事件」被整肅，習近平則於文革時期在十六歲被下放到延安縣梁家河村。二、習近平在閩浙滬開放先行地區有長達二十餘年的兩岸經驗。因而，其家族經歷會不會使他在政治改革上較具開明思維，其兩岸經驗又會不會使他對民主及主體意識較能領悟省思，皆是可待觀察之處。若謂胡溫創造了「和平發展」的高峰，習李應是站在「民主驗證」的起點。

溫家寶為這十年給習李二人留下了一句話：「沒有政治體制改革的保障，經濟體制改革的成果就會得而復失。」然而，諷刺的是，溫家寶本人也正陷於嚴峻的清廉質疑。