The Boao Forum, One Small Step for Cross-Strait Dialogue

The Boao Forum, One Small Step for Cross-Strait Dialogue
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 8, 2008

Although Vincent Siew has attended the Boao Forum for Asia five years in a row, he has never before been the focus of public attention. Probably even Siew himself never expected that this time, because he is Vice President elect of the ROC, and because the forum is being held on Hainan Island, his participation would be assigned special significance. Boao Forum spokespersons stressed that the forum "does not discuss politics." Indeed, the forum might not discuss politics. The problem is Vincent Siew's identity. To expect his trip not to be interpreted politically is well-nigh impossible.

That is why this year's Boao Forum is certain to be seen as a preview of future cross-strait interactions. It could be a window of opportunity, a chance to initiate a virtuous circle. It could also trigger mutual suspicion and controversy. It is a test not only of Vincent Siew, but of Beijing. It will also test the DPP, which has a little over a month left in its term.

As you can imagine, Vice President elect Vincent Siew's trip will be examined under a microscope. What kind of reception will he receive when he arrives on Hainan Island? Where will he be seated at the conference table? How he will interact with Hu Jintao? Will Hu and Siew meet separately? If so, how? What will our representatives talk about at the round-table? What level of representation will the mainland will send? Each of these questions will be subject to political analysis. Because of this, both the delegations led by Beijing and by Vincent Siew should conduct rehearsals. After all, this event is unprecedented. Even former Vice President Lien Chan's visit to the mainland does not compare.

Vincent Siew may insist that he is merely the Chairman of the Cross-Strait Common Market Foundation. But everyone will surely fixate on his status as Vice President elect and judge how he is treated on that basis. Although the purpose of the Boao Forum is to discuss economic and trade issues, the participants are all government representatives. The vast majority are attending in their capacity as heads of state. Hu Jintao is attending as General Secretary of the mainland government. Vincent Siew may be attending as an NGO chairman. But we all know that a month from now he will be sworn in as the Vice President of the Republic of China. For someone of his quasi-official status to attend a summit for international heads of state, and even appear on the same podium as high-ranking mainland Chinese officials, is something that hasn't happened in several decades.

Siew's ambiguous status has provided participants of this "quasi-summit" a great deal of room to maneuver. It has also provided commentators a great deal of room for interpretation. This is the fifth time Vincent Siew has participated in the Boao Forum. He knows better than anyone how he must comport himself. Everyone's attention is focused on Beijing, whose challenge is how to express good will towards Taipei. In any case, if cross-strait relations are to move toward reconciliation and dialogue, it is a step which must be taken. Outside observers should not expect too much from the Baoa Forum. After all, it is merely a platform for the exchange of views.

More interesting is the anxiety expressed by the DPP. One minute they are worried that Vincent Siew will be demeaned by the mainland authorities. The next minute they are asking Vincent Siew to demand membership in the WHO on behalf of Taiwan. As mentioned earlier, the Boao Forum is also a test of the DPP's mettle. This is when the Democratic Progressive Party ought to reexamine its political path and the reasons for its debacle at the polls. Judging by the DPP hierarchy's reaction to Siew's trip, the DPP is unwilling to adopt a more mature attitude. Instead it remains captive to its own ideological fundamentalism.

From Vice President Lu on down, everyone in the Pan Green nomenklatura continues to accuse dissenters of "betraying Taiwan." They continue to accuse dissenters of being "Communists." The DPP has not ruled out more extreme measures once the Boao Forum formally opens.

In other words, whenever the KMT takes practical action to promote cross-strait exchanges, the DPP attempts to turn everything into a struggle for unification vs. independence for "domestic consumption." If the DPP refuses to awaken from its delusion, it will be relegated to the role of a supporting player. It will have relinquished the spotlight to the KMT.

Frankly we dare not expect too much from the Boao Forum. After all, this is merely the first step in our search for cross-strait dialogue. Numerous thorny issues remain unresolved, The road ahead remains a long one.

讓博鰲論壇成為兩岸啟動對話的小起步
中國時報
2008.04.08　

蕭萬長可能自己都沒料到，他連續五年都出席博鰲論壇，從來都不是輿論焦點，這回卻因為多了準副總統的身分，再加上舉行的地點選在海南島，使得他這趟受邀出席，被賦予多重的意義，特別是「政治」上的意義。儘管論壇發言人強調論壇「不談政治」，事實上可能也真的談不了什麼政治。問題是蕭萬長多了這個身分，要說此行不被「政治解讀」，怕也是不可能的。

或許也就是因為這樣，這屆的博鰲論壇，勢必被視為是考驗兩岸未來互動的一次預演。它可以是一次啟動良性循環的機會之窗，也可以是引發彼此猜忌與爭議的關鍵試煉，它所考驗不只是蕭萬長，也將考驗北京當局，當然，它其實也在考驗執政只剩一個月多一點的民進黨。

可想而知，多了準副總統的身分，蕭萬長此行的所有「議程」，都會被放大檢視。從抵達海南島會有怎樣的「接機」規格？在會場中會被安排怎樣的座位？他與胡錦濤會怎麼互動？要不要特別安排單獨的「胡蕭會」？安排的形式又將如何？我方所主辦的圓桌論壇將要談些什麼？大陸會派何種層級的代表參加等等，這其中的每一個環節，都可能包含了被過度政治解讀的空間。也因為這樣，可預見不論是北京當局亦或是蕭萬長所率領的代表團，事前都應做過縝密的沙盤推演。只不過這個場景畢竟是空前的，它與當年連戰以卸任副總統身分赴中國大陸訪問，其實是不能比擬的。

講再白一點，不論蕭萬長怎麼強調此行他的身分只是「兩岸共同市場基金會」的董事長，大概所有人還是會以「副總統當選人」的角度，鎖定蕭萬長會怎麼「被對待」。雖說博鰲論壇在性質上是以討論經貿議題為主，但不諱言與會者皆為各國的官方代表，而且絕大多數就是元首本人出席，胡錦濤就是以中國國家主席的身分與會。蕭萬長掛著頭銜固然是基金會的董事長，但所有人也都知道一個月後，他將宣誓就職為中華民國的副總統，以這個未來完成式的「準官方」身分，出席類如元首高峰會性質的國際會議，甚至出現兩岸高層同台的畫面，回顧台灣過去幾十年的經歷，其實是相當罕見的。

這種藉由身分與角色的曖昧游移，所塑造的「準高峰會」場景，不僅提供了所有參與者很大的操作空間，也提供了所有評論者很大的詮釋空間。對蕭萬長而言，博鰲論壇是他已經參與了五屆的對話平台，該怎麼掌握分際不會有人比他自己更清楚。而對北京而言，怎麼藉由東道主的便利表達出對台灣的善意，大家也都在緊盯著看。無論如何，兩岸關係如果是要朝著和解對話的方向走，這一步終究是要踏出去的。外界也不必對博鰲論壇能達成什麼了不得的成果期待過高，畢竟這只是一個交換意見的平台而已。

比較有趣的倒是民進黨在這次博鰲論壇舉辦前夕所表現出的焦慮。一會擔心蕭萬長出席會被中共矮化，一會又建議蕭萬長應積極表達替台灣爭取加入ＷＨＯ的心聲。前面提過，在這次博鰲論壇舉行的前夕，同樣在接受試煉的還有民進黨。恰恰好此時的民進黨正在為敗選啟動路線討論，而觀察民進黨上下怎麼看待蕭萬長的這趟出訪，正好可以檢視該黨願不願意以更成熟的態度，逐步調整以往深陷意識形態的執著。

很遺憾，截至目前為止，從呂副總統以降，多數綠營精英還是祭出了「出賣台灣」的制式論述，還是在竭盡所能的扣紅帽子，甚至不排除在博鰲論壇在正式召開後，民進黨可能還會有更大的動作。

換言之，當國民黨以實際行動逐步啟動兩岸互動之際，民進黨想著還是怎麼在統獨鬥爭的戰線上進行「內部消費」。如果民進黨永遠都不願從這個迷障中走出來，恐怕也只能在這個議題上繼續充當配角，把這個戰場拱手讓給國民黨去單獨表現了。

不諱言說，我們對博鰲論壇並不抱太高期待，畢竟這只是兩岸尋求對話試探的一個起步而已，諸多棘手的難題都還未解決，未來的路還長著呢！