Obama/Hu Secret Talks: Highly Unusual

Obama/Hu Secret Talks: Highly Unusual
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 20, 2011

On the 18th of this month, Mainland Chinese President Hu Jintao embarked on a state visit to the United States. It was the highest profile visit Hu Jintao has made during his term of office. It is also critical to the development of Beijing/Washington relations. Obama is currently besieged, both at home and abroad. Mainland leaders meanwhile, will soon undergo a changing of the guard. As a result, the spotlight is on Hu Jintao.

Before such visits commentators often make distinctions between appearance and substance. At Beijing's insistence, the visit has be classified as a state visit. Vice President Joe Biden and his wife will personally greet Hu at the airport. A string of high-profile meetings have been arranged. Washington apparently hopes to give Hu Jintao lots of face, in exchange for real concessions. It hopes to receive something substantive in return.

But Washington may be engaging in wishful thinking. After all, Mainland China has already risen. It can easily play the same game. Washington must adopt a mature attitude when considering Beijing's opinions and views. It cannot wave candy in front of Beijing, as if it were a mere child.

For example, prior to Hu Jintao's departure, he was interviewed by the U.S. media. He questioned the Fed's loose money policy. He spoke not merely on behalf of Mainland China. He spoke on behalf of the entire world. He criticized the U.S. for its vicious behavior at the expense of others. If Obama fails to offer a positive response, he will underscore the irrationality of an international trading system based on the US dollar.

Over the next few days, several points will be worth noting. First, President Hu Jintao will be in Washington for three days. He will attend a number of meetings and parties. Most of them are purely symbolic. But the most important one will be held on the evening of the 18th, upon his arrival. President Obama will hold a working dinner with President Hu in the White House. Only six people will attend. On the Washington side, they will include the president, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, and National Security Adviser Tom Donilon. On the Beijing side, they will include Mainland Chinese President Hu Jintao, State Councilor Dai Chenguo, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi.

According to the U.S. the arrangement is highly unusual, and provides a less formal environment in which Beijing and Washington can conduct a frank exchange. Before this, in order to ensure the success of the state visit, a series of high-level meetings were held between the two governments. But in view of the complex problems dogging the two governments, they may find themselves at loggerheads. If that happens, top leaders from both sides will have to reach a consensus at the last minute.

Next, during the meeting, the two sides will dispense with formalities. They will address each other directly on the issues that most concern them. For example, Washington has been pressuring Beijing on the yuan and the trade deficit. Barack Obama suffered a setback during the midterm elections. He is under enormous domestic pressure, Beijing is concerned about the change in leadership next year. Will it be able to maintain stable Sino-US relations over the next decade? These questions must be properly resolved. Otherwise they will undermine these leaders' political base.

In bilateral summits the world over, the watchword is "You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours." They must understand each others' plight. They must address each others' most pressing political problems. Only then can they achieve mutual trust. Only then can they this expanded trust be applied to other problems. During the working dinner on the night of the 18th, only six people will be present. This will maximize the chances of keeping the meeting confidential. This will allow them to make highly specific requests for assistance.

Another possibility of course, is that a quarrel may erupt behind closed doors. The two sides can lay their cards on the table, and avoid making their differences too explicit. If harsh words are exchanged during such bilateral meetings, they must often be made public. People can then see that their leaders refused to make concessions. Therefore the atmosphere during a private meeting is often more congenial than during a public meeting.

Finally, in Taipei, we frequently worry that Beijing/Washington summits will sacrifice our interests and security. This time Taipei is probably not the focus of the Beijing/Washington meeting. But whenever tensions arise between Beijing and Washington, Taipei is invariably a factor.

Some in the US have voiced criticisms. But fundamentally speaking, the U.S. government approves of current developments in cross-Strait relations. The most obvious indication was Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's January 14th speech on Sino-US relations. She publicly affirmed the historic economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) reached between Taipei and Beijing. Beijing also believes that cross-Strait relations are peaceful, and will not become a sticking point in Beijing/Washington relations.

The Taiwan issue is gradually becoming an East Asian issue. This year Beijing experienced tensions and frictions in its relations with neighboring countries. South Korea, Japan, and even Southeast Asian countries are worried about the rise of mainland Chinese military power. They hope the United States will again intervene in Southeast Asia. Under the circumstances, it will be difficult for Taipei to remain aloof. In other words, the importance of the Taiwan issue has diminished. Nevertheless Beijing/Washington relations, the Korean Peninsula issue, the Diaoyutai issue the South China Sea issue, have all made their appearance on the strategic radar.

The Obama/Hu summit has reached a consensus. Beijing hopes to put in in writing. It hopes to hold the United States to its word. The China-US Joint Statement will be made public. Washington has reluctantly signed off on it. It hopes to leave each side room for interpretation. The final text is still being scrutinized with a fine toothed comb. But the real bilateral agreement is not in the surface text. It is in the face to face secret talks held that night.

歐胡會三對三密談 十分不尋常
2011-01-20 中國時報

中國國家主席胡錦濤已在十八日展開對美國國是訪問，這將是胡錦濤任內最高規格的訪問，此也正值中美關係的發展關鍵，歐巴馬此刻內外交逼，而大陸領導人換屆在即，都讓胡錦濤此行備受矚目。

訪問前，許多人評論時，往往傾向以「面子」、「裡子」來區分，在中國的堅持下，定位為國是訪問，從副總統拜登夫婦親往接機開始，安排一連串的高規格待遇，美方似乎希望給足胡錦濤面子，來換取中方實際讓步，賺得裡子。

但這某種程度上所反應的是美方的一廂情願；大陸畢竟已經崛起，足以與美國分庭抗禮，美國必須要以成熟的態度，來面對中國提出的意見與看法，不是以拿糖哄小孩的心態來處理。

胡錦濤行前接受美國媒體訪問時，質疑聯準會的寬鬆貨幣政策，就是很好的例子。他不僅代表中國，而且是代表世界各國發言，批評美國以鄰為壑的惡性手段，歐巴馬如果沒有積極回應，只會凸顯美元主導國際經貿體系的不合理。

在未來幾天當中，有幾方面是值得注意的：首先，胡錦濤在華府的三天，安排了幾場會談與宴會，大部分都是象徵性儀式，但是最重要的是十八日剛抵達的晚間，歐巴馬總統將在白宮的總統私人住宅，與胡主席舉行工作晚餐，參加的人員只有六位，美國是總統本人、希拉蕊國務卿、以及國安顧問唐尼倫，中方除了胡錦濤之外，還有國務委員戴秉國與外交部長楊潔篪。

據美方表示，這個安排「十分不尋常」，提供一個在「不那麼正式」的中美會談環境下，進行坦承的對話。在此之前，為了要讓國是訪問順利成功，兩國高層已經來回會晤好幾次。但是有鑑於兩國間問題之複雜，在某些癥結雙方肯定相持不下，需要最後一刻，由雙方最高領導人拍板，才能達成共識。

其次，特別要指出在這場會議中，雙方將破除客套，直接就彼此最關切的議題進行對話。像美國一再施壓的人民幣與貿易逆差，因為歐巴馬期中選舉挫敗後，承受莫大的國內壓力，而中國所關心的，是明年領導人換屆後，未來十年中美關係能否維持穩定，這些議題沒有妥善解決，會動搖兩國領導人各自的政治基礎。

換句話說，全世界這類的雙邊高峰會，都是「你搔我的背、我搔你的背」，了解對方的困境，替對方解決最困擾的政治問題，才能達到相互的信任，擴散到解決別的問題。在十八日晚間的工作晚餐，只有六個人與會，最能夠保密，彼此也最能提出具體協助要求。

當然另一個可能是關起門吵架，雙方把醜話講在前面，避免分歧表面化；可是在雙邊會晤中，講硬話狠話，往往必須公開，好讓老百姓看到自己的領袖是不妥協的，所以私下見面的氣氛，往往要比公開會面氣氛要好。

最後，對於台灣的我們，往昔每每會擔心在中美高峰會上，台灣的利益與安全會被犧牲；但我們認為這回台灣問題不會再是中美之間的焦點，但是中美之間的緊張，台灣問題仍然是其中的一部分。

雖然部分美方人士有雜音，但是美國官方基本上是肯定目前兩岸關係的發展，最明確的跡證就是，國務卿希拉蕊十四日發表美中關係演說時，公開肯定兩岸達成歷史性的「經濟合作架構協議（ＥＣＦＡ）」，大陸方面也認為兩岸平靜，不會成為中美關係中的焦點問題。

但現在台灣問題卻出現與其他東亞問題結合起來的趨勢。這一年來，大陸與周邊國家的關係出現緊張與摩擦，無論是南韓、日本乃至東南亞國家，都擔心大陸軍力崛起，希望美國能夠重新介入東亞局勢，在這種背景之下，台灣很難完全置身事外。換句話說，台灣問題的重要性雖然降低，但是在中美關係裡，卻與朝鮮半島問題、釣魚台問題、南中國海問題，一起浮現在戰略雷達之上。

歐胡高峰會所達成的共識，中方希望形諸文字，好牽制美方行為，目前將會以《中美聯合聲明》的文件形式表現出來，美方雖然勉為同意，但希望保留各說各話的空間，最後的文字，仍在逐字逐句推敲，但是真正雙方的約定，不會在表面文字，而在那個晚上的促膝密談。