Tsai Ing-wen's Ordeal Has Just Begun

Tsai Ing-wen's Ordeal Has Just Begun
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 12, 2011

A dispute has arisen within the DPP presidential primary, between the "all peoples faction" and the "party members faction." On the surface, this represents a surprise attack by "Old Fogie fundamentalists" against the party leadership, which is consolidating its hold on the party. The power struggle has impacted the DPP's policy toward Mainland China. Yesterday the "all peoples faction" enjoyed a breakthrough in the Central Executive Committee. But Deep Green elements have also made their move. They have clearly indicated they will not allow Tsai Ing-wen to adopt a more centrist cross-Strait policy.

The DPP is unlike the KMT. The DPP rose through hard struggle. Every DPP elected official is adept with both the pen and the sword. Annette Lu is highly eloquent. But even the office manager for Taiwan independence elder Koo Kuan-min, blasted Tsai Ing-wen as "very un-DPP like," "elitist," and "dictatorial." This is the way it has been ever since the Democratic Progressive Party was founded. But Tsai Ing-wen, who has been praised both inside and outside the DPP, may not be accustomed to such merciless public attacks. .

Two years ago, during the party chairman election, Koo Kuan-min and Tsai Ing-wen fought each other tooth and nail. This was followed by rule changes within the DPP. Tsai Ing-wen had never encountered so much resistance. Last year, by adopting Tsai Ing-wen's campaign strategy during the five cities elections, the DPP scored victories in Taipei City, Xinbei City, and Taichung City. Winning was everything. Theoretically the party leadership would hold small group discussions, nominate candidates, and begin recruitment.

Following the five cities elections, Tsai Ing-wen found herself riding high. Now however she faces an uphill battle for the presidential nomination. The media has mocked Annette Lu and Trong Chai as "Old Fogey fundamentalists." Neither compares with Tsai Ing-wen in intraparty authority or support. Next to Tsai Ing-wen, they lag far behind. Therefore, regardless of whether party members vote in the party primaries, Tsai Ing-wen is likely to lead by a wide margin. Nevertheless the "Old Fogey fundamentalists" have made their move. This means infighting will soon begin.

Annette Lu's call for party members to vote in the party primaries was defeated in the Central Executive Committee. But she is certain to shift the battleground to the January 22 meeting of the National Party Congress. By then, public polls will be conducted. Twenty-one sessions will be held, during which policy positions will be set forth. They will include proposals to postpone the presidential primaries until July. All these matters will be debated. The current party leadership wants to confirm the party's nominee by March. But the DPP includes presidential hopefuls such as Su Tseng-chang, Annette Lu, Trong Chai, and Koo Kwan-min, all of whom hope to postpone the presidential primaries until July. They want to drag the process out, in the hope that Tsai Ing-wen's lead can be diminished. If the DPP leadership digs in its heels, the party may find itself divided even before the election.

Suppose the nomination process is postponed, from March to July. Can the DPP trade time for space? Can the DPP reach an accord? Or will it merely prolong the struggle within the party? The presidential election may involve problems other than election procedure. The DPP has been in the opposition for four years, It must offer a new cross-Strait policy platform. But the "Old Fogey fundamentalists" have joined forces with Taiwan independence hardliners. The power struggle over the DPP primary process, may turn into a fierce battle over ideology.

If Tsai Ing-wen is determined to run, her every word and deed will be subject to Deep Green scrutiny. The "very un-DPP like" charge leveled against her suggests that the Deep Greens have already begun to question Tsai Ing-wen's "background." Given this atmosphere, will Tsai Ing-wen be able to set forth a pragmatic cross-Strait policy? She certainly will be put to the test.

In fact, the atmosphere of moderation the DPP generated during the five cities elections has already evaporated. Frank Hsieh has proposed "One Constitution, Different Interpretations." He wants specifically to eliminate the "One China Constitution" he once advocated. Taiwan independence elements and the party elite are joining forces. They are reluctant even to recognize the ROC Constitution. Under the circumstances, how can the DPP possibly offer a workable framework for cross-Strait exchanges during the presidential election?

This reminds one of the U.S. presidential elections. During the primaries, the DPP must appease Deep Green elements. But during the presidential election, it must move toward the center. The DPP leadership is consulting opinion polls, in the hope of avoiding this dilemma. Tsai Ing-wen faces a dilemma. Taiwan independence elements are menacing her. Polls may serve as a shield. But every DPP candidate must be approved by the Deep Greens, or solemnly affirm his or her commitment to Taiwan independence. After imposing such political purity tests, how much latitude does the DPP have to move toward the center? But if it fails to move toward the center, how can the DPP possibly return to power in 2012?

How will the DPP reach an accord on the party's nomination process? How will it arrive at a viable cross-Strait policy in the face of such a dilemma? Can Tsai Ing-wen reassure the public? These questions have no easy answers, One might say that Chairman Tsai's ordeal has just begun!

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2011.01.13
蔡英文的嚴酷挑戰 才剛要開始
本報訊

民進黨總統初選的「全民調」與「黨員派」之爭，表面上這是由已經式微的公媽派，向鞏固領導核心的掌權派發動突襲，但是這場權力鬥爭卻牽動了民進黨內的中國政策路線走向，即使全民調昨日順利在中執會闖關，但是深綠陣營已經出手，擺明不可能讓蔡英文主導調整民進黨兩岸政策、朝中間路線邁進。

不同於國民黨，打天下起家的民進黨，個個都具文攻武略之才，不要說口才一流的呂秀蓮，即使是獨派大老辜寬敏辦公室執行長，都可以隨口批評蔡英文「很不民進黨」，玩「菁英獨裁」，這是自民進黨創黨以來司空見慣的場景，但是這一年來備受民進黨內外肯定的蔡英文，面對這些毫不留情的公開叫陣，可能還不見得很習慣。

畢竟，除了兩年前黨主席選舉，辜寬敏和蔡英文戰到最後一刻外，接下來的民進黨內規調整，蔡英文並未遇到太大的阻力，甚至去年的五都選舉，台北市、新北市、台中市三都，都依據蔡英文的原則，以勝選為最高目標，原則上由中央提名小組討論後，就逕行徵召。

五都選後，蔡英文聲勢高漲，但立即上場的卻是總統提名方式之爭。表面上，被媒體譏為公媽派的呂秀蓮、蔡同榮，無論是黨內實力、或受支持程度，和蔡英文比起來，絕對是瞠乎其後；因此，不論初選是否納入黨員投票，蔡英文都可能遙遙領先，但是，公媽派的出手，仍然預告著民進黨將進入內鬥階段。

呂秀蓮的黨員投票提案雖然在中執會敗下陣來，但她勢必轉移陣地到一月二十二日舉行的全國黨員代表大會提案。屆時除了全民調外，其他包括二十一場巡迴政見發表會、延後到七月再決定總統提名人等主張，也都要經過黨代表的討論，目前黨中央的掌權派傾向三月提名確定，但是民進黨內有意角逐總統大位的蘇貞昌、呂秀蓮、蔡同榮、辜寬敏等人，都傾向將時程挪後到七月再決定人選，藉著時間的拉長，看看如此能否暫挫蔡英文領先的聲勢。因而黨中央若是在這些議程上堅持己見，民進黨可能未選就先鬧分裂。

只是，時程從三月延後到七月，能否以時間換取空間，讓民進黨順利協調整合，還是民進黨黨內鬥爭的延長賽？尤其是，總統大選牽涉的可不只選舉辦法這些程序問題，已經在野四年的民進黨，必然要重新提出一套兩岸論述；但是，當公媽派與民進黨內的極獨勢力已經合流之際，民進黨初選過程中的權力之爭，卻有可能轉化成激烈的立場之爭。

蔡英文如果確定參選，她的一言一行都將受到深綠檢驗，從「很不民進黨」這樣的批評看來，深綠陣營已經發動開始檢討蔡英文的「血統」，這樣的氣氛中，蔡英文能不能提出一套務實的兩岸政策，看來是一場極大的考驗。

事實上，民進黨在五都選舉時擺出來的中間氣氛，近來已消失殆盡，謝長廷提出的「憲法各表」，即使刻意去掉過去主張的「憲法一中」，但獨派及黨內菁英群起攻之，如果連承認中華民國憲法都如此困難，民進黨有可能在總統大選時，提出未來兩岸交流的可行架構嗎？

和美國總統選舉一樣，民進黨即使初選時要討好深綠，但大選時必然要往中間走；民進黨中央會採取全民調，應該就是不想面臨這樣的矛盾處境。蔡英文的兩難是，獨派來勢洶洶，即使有全民調護身，民進黨候選人仍都要經過深綠驗明正身，或者對台獨立場做出承諾，歷經這樣的路線檢驗，民進黨還有多大的餘力往中間走？但不往中間走，民進黨二○一二有可能重返執政嗎？

如何協調黨內提名的遊戲規則，如何在兩難之局找出可行的兩岸政策，蔡英文的協調能力能否服眾，這些問題都沒有簡單的答案，可以說，蔡主席的考驗才剛要開始！