Su/Tsai Unity vs. Su/Tsai Rivalry

Su/Tsai Unity vs. Su/Tsai Rivalry
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 26, 2011

The DPP reached an agreement on the conduct of its presidential primaries. Immediately afterwards, speculation about "Su/Tsai unity" vs. "Su/Tsai rivalry" emerged. The DPP will decide who will be its presidential candidate, and who will be his or her running mate. The public however, is more concerned about the process, about how the presidential and vice presidential candidates will be determined. It is more concerned about whether the DPP will fully debate the party's policy path, and subject it to internal and external scrutiny.

Those calling for Su/Tsai unity are attempting to avoid such debate. They think Su and Tsai should not be subject to either a nationwide poll or participate in county and municipal level policy debates. They think the two should "engage in dialog, and nominate the candidates jointly." Doing so may allow them to sidestep "internecine warfare" and "Su/Tsai rivalry." But doing so will also undermine the DPP's campaign platform and policy path. The primary process enables a party to refine its campaign platform and policy path. Eliminating the process deprives a party of this opportunity. When the time comes, the presidential and vice presidential candidates will mouth a few platitudes. This will determine the party's campaign platform and even the nation's policy path. But such a policy path would have no support within the DPP. Nor is it likely to meet with approval of the larger society.

Annette Lu proposed a "three part primary." She wanted a thorough policy debate and full participation by party members. Frank Hsieh floated his "One Constitution, Two Interpretations." He too wanted the party primaries to include a debate over policy direction. The decision was made to hold a nationwide poll. Annette Lu lost her leverage. She may withdraw from the primaries. The shrewd but ill-fated Frank Hsieh trapped himself with his comment about "withdrawing from the public forum." Su and Tsai suggested "engaging in dialog, and nominating the candidates jointly." But the party has been deprived of the opportunity to refine its campaign platform and policy path.

Su Tseng-chang acted very differently recently than he did in 2008. In 2007, word spread that Su Tseng-chang opposed any Su/Hsieh ticket arranged by Chen Shui-bian. Su then declared he would turn down the vice presidential spot. He denounced Frank Hsieh, calling him "devious." He asked, "Who really betrayed the core values of the Democratic Progressive Party?" He said "Changing the subject will not change the facts." He blasted Frank Hsieh mercilessly. Su lost the primaries and retreated to the United States to lick his wounds. Then he said he would "campaign full force, but seek no office." He said he would "wait for the next tropical storm, and ride its currents." As we all know, Su expressed "respect for the big picture" and accepted the "Hsieh/Su ticket." Frank Hsieh became his "tropical storm."

Su Tseng-chang's situation today is very different from what it was in 2008. Rumors are the Su camp is not ruling out either a "Tsai/Su ticket" or a "Su/Tsai ticket." Su Tseng-chang said "The DPP must unite in order to nominate the strongest candidate," leading to speculation about what he really meant. Several opinion polls show Su Tseng-chang slightly ahead of Tsai Ing-wen. Given Su Tseng-chang's current situation, he could win a nationwide poll. But a deal could also put him in the position of running mate. In 2008 he immediately tried to deal Frank Hsieh a knockout punch. He left himself no room for retreat, and said he would refuse to be anyone's running mate. Today he behaved very differently. Su Tseng-chang has effectively put the ball in Tsai Ing-wen's court.

Some in the DPP are not optimistic about either a "Su/Tsai ticket" or a "Tsai/Su ticket." They consider such a "shotgun marriage" unlikely. Tsai Ing-wen's supporters believe that "Even a Chen Shui-bian/Annette Lu ticket could win." What they mean is that Tsai Ing-wen could choose anyone as her running mate and win. Why bother choosing Su Tseng-chang?

Consider the current situation. Su and Tsai are running neck and neck in the polls. This makes it difficult for either to eliminate the other. Tsai Ing-wen wants to dump Su Tseng-chang. But Su Tseng-chang is stuck to her like a tar baby. If Su Tseng-chang wins the nationwide poll, he could become Tsai Ing-wen's running mate. If Su Tseng-chang loses the nationwide poll, a victorious Tsai will still be subject to pressure from within the party. She may still be stuck with Su. That is, unless she can offer a more attractive candidate for the vice presidential spot.

We once pointed out that Tsai Ing-wen faces a "three part challenge." She faces "generational change, the presidential election, and a change in policy path. Among them, generational change is fundamental to the other two. Over the past two and and a half years, Tsai Ing-wen has negotiated several major hurdles. These include Chen Shui-bian, Annette Lu, and Frank Hsieh. She defeated Taiwan independence elements during the recent debate over the primary process. Now however, she is stuck with Su Tseng-chang. Will she be forced to compromise with Su on her "Platform for the Coming Decade?"

Will Su and Tsai reach an agreement prior to any nationwide poll? Or will they await the results of a nationwide poll before making separate plans? This question concerns who will be the presidential candidate, and who will be the running mate. It also concerns whether Su and Tsai can conduct a primary debate within the party and the larger community. Can they arrive at a new policy path with the participation of the larger public?

蘇蔡合體或蘇蔡角力
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.01.26

民進黨總統候選人初選辦法議定，立即傳出「蘇蔡合體」或「蘇蔡角力」的二種說法。其實，民進黨最後總會決定由何人出線及如何搭檔，但國人較關注的是在正副總統候選人的產生過程中，民進黨能否經充分辯論以淬煉出真正經歷內外激盪積澱的政策路線。

「蘇蔡合體」的主張，就是要迴避這樣的淬煉及激盪；甚至認為，蘇蔡二人不應經歷「全民調」及「一縣一市的廝殺」（政見辯論會），而應「對談／共推」；然而，此種主張雖可避免「對殺／互殘」的「蘇蔡角力」，但也將使民進黨的競選綱領與治國路線，失去了藉初選機制淬煉及積澱的過程。屆時，只消正副總統候選人嘴皮子翻兩下，就算是決定了大選及治國的政策路線；但這樣的政策路線在民進黨內沒有根，也不可能期望它在國家社會結出果來。

呂秀蓮主張「初選三部曲」，重點即在進行深刻的政策辯論及引入黨員參與；而謝長廷拋出「憲法各表」，也在欲將初選主題導向政策辯論。如今決定「全民調」，呂秀蓮已失槓桿，可能退出初選，而智多命舛的謝長廷又被「退出論壇」套住；倘若蘇蔡再經「協調／共推」而形成「蘇蔡合體」，則此次初選即失去經內外淬煉激盪而形成政策路線的機能。

蘇貞昌此時的動作與二○○八年大相逕庭。二○○七年，很早就傳出蘇拒絕陳水扁「蘇謝配」的撮合，接下來蘇公開宣布「不任副手」，並以「奸巧」、「誰真正背叛民進黨核心價值」，及「轉移焦點不能改變涉案事實」狂轟猛批謝長廷；至蘇初選落敗赴美療傷，又說「全力輔選／不要位子」，「等待下一個熱帶氣旋，乘風而起」；最後的結果則已眾人皆知，蘇以「顧全大局」，接受了「謝蘇配」，謝長廷成了他的「熱帶氣旋」。

然而，此時的蘇貞昌卻與二○○八大不相同。蘇陣營傳出「蘇蔡配」、「蔡蘇配」皆不排除的說法；蘇貞昌更說「民進黨要團結推出最強的候選人」，引人遐想。何況，最近發表的幾次民意調查，蘇貞昌尚微幅領先蔡英文。以蘇貞昌如今的態勢，既可在「全民調」中求勝，亦可在協調後屈居副手；這與二○○八年他一出手就非要把謝長廷打趴、且不給自己留退路的手法（不任副手）已不可同日而語。蘇貞昌形同把球拍到了蔡英文的球場裡。

然而，民進黨內有人不看好「蘇蔡配」或「蔡蘇配」，認為二人連當「怨偶」都很難；且支持蔡英文者認為，「連陳水扁配呂秀蓮都能當選」，意謂蔡英文找誰搭檔都行，何須蘇貞昌來配？

但就當下情勢言，蘇蔡兩人民調差距不大，將使兩人皆不易完全甩掉對方。蔡英文即使有意甩掉蘇貞昌，但蘇貞昌卻已黏上了蔡英文。蘇若在「全民調」勝出，他極可能找蔡英文為副手；而蘇若在「全民調」敗，勝出的蔡在黨內壓力下也未必能甩掉蘇，除非她能舉出比蘇更具說服力的副手。

我們曾經指出，蔡英文面對的是「世代交替／總統大選／路線轉型」的「三合一工程」；其中，世代交替更是其他二者的根本。二年半來，蔡英文繞過了扁呂謝等重大關卡，此次初選制度的議決又打敗了獨派，現在她卻似乎卡在蘇貞昌的手上，難道要與蘇共擬《十年政綱》？

蘇蔡將在「全民調」之前合體？或經「全民調」分出軒輊後再作打算？這不僅關係到誰出線及如何搭檔的問題，更關係到蘇蔡二人能否在黨內及社會上進行初選辯論，淬煉出一個經全民激盪積澱的新政策路線。