Cross-Strait Industrial Cooperation Requires Vision

Cross-Strait Industrial Cooperation Requires Vision
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 3, 2011

Summary: Recently cross-Strait industrial cooperation has attracted considerable attention. On October 20th, the Seventh Chiang/Chen Summit announced "increased agreement on cross-Strait industrial cooperation." On October 28th and 29th, the First Cross-Strait Industry Forum reached a consensus on numerous issues. Yesterday, the Second Economic Cooperation Conference announced a preliminary agreement on industrial cooperation, and on plans for the future. Currently industries on both sides of the Strait face challenges such as recession, restructuring, and export competition, Industrial cooperation requires overall review and planning. Only this will meet everyone's needs.

Full Text Below:

Recently cross-Strait industrial cooperation has attracted considerable attention. On October 20th, the Seventh Chiang/Chen Summit announced "increased agreement on cross-Strait industrial cooperation." On October 28th and 29th, the First Cross-Strait Industry Forum reached a consensus on numerous issues. Yesterday, the Second Economic Cooperation Conference announced a preliminary agreement on industrial cooperation, and on plans for the future. Currently industries on both sides of the Strait face challenges such as recession, restructuring, and export competition, Industrial cooperation requires overall review and planning. Only this will meet everyone's needs.

In the short term, the debt crisis in Europe and high unemployment in the US have increased the risk of a second global economic recession. The United States and Europe face sharply reduced market demand. Imports from emerging market countries continue to slow. This affects these country's exports and economic growth. Mainland China's exports and economic growth have slowed significantly in recent months. Taiwan's main exports are susceptible to economic fluctuations. These exports include information technology and communications technology products. These products have borne the brunt of the recession. In the past, the government provided strong support for memory (DRAM) manufacturers and panel manufacturers despite countless losses. These manufacturers now totter on the brink of death. The two sides of the Strait have established a large-scale division of labor within the computer industry. The mobile phone industry and LED industry face serious problems with overcapacity and insufficient orders. Following the financial tsunami, both sides of the Strait vigorously supported green energy industries such as solar energy generation and electric cars. All these are in trouble. If they cannot survive these short-term difficulties, how can we talk about cross-Strait industrial cooperation?

In the mid term and long term, industries on both sides of the Strait face severe challenges. South Korea is Taiwan's main competitor in the international market. South Korea is aggressively signing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with other countries. FTAs between Europe and Korea, and the US and Korea, have been signed and are about to take effect. The impact on Taiwan's exports will be severe. Taiwan's most advantageous export market is the Chinese mainland. Korean products are a growing threat. The Chinese mainland is also undergoing rapid industrial upgrading. It is rapidly replacing Taiwan in the manufacture of components, intermediate raw materials, machinery, and equipment. The market share of Taiwan exports in the Mainland market continues to drop. Experts estimate that within five to ten years, over half of Taiwan's exports to the Mainland will be replaced by products from foreign countries, Taiwan faces an imminent industrial crisis.

Industries on the Mainland also face a number of factors, such as rapidly rising wage rates, real estate prices, raw material prices, and an appreciating RMB. Low value-added processing and export industries face intense pressure to upgrade, move inland, or move abroad. The Mainland's 125 Plan is a response to internal and external changes. It vigorously promotes industrial restructuring and modernization. It strongly supports the development of new strategic industries. This industrial policy is clearly in coopetition with industries on Taiwan, and adds to the complexity of cross-Strait industrial cooperation.

The environment for industrial development is harsh, Cross-strait cooperation requires a sense of direction and a need for prioritization. In the short term, cooperation should focus on helping industry respond to the recession. The two governments should help them cope with excess manufacturing capacity, reduce duplication of investments, and ensure the survival of the fittest. This will enhance the competitiveness of the economy and establish a foundation for the future. Flat panels, LEDs, and solar energy face a recession. These industries should be our top priority as cooperation projects, If cooperation on these industries yield concrete results, it will increase confidence in cross-Strait industrial cooperation.

In the mid term to long term, the two sides must fully understand that the only way to improve industrial competitiveness is to compete globally and follow the rules of the market. Therefore, the two sides should accelerate their move in the direction of free trade. The Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) attempts to establish a cross-Strait free trade zone, The long-term cross-Strait division of labor will enhance industrial competitiveness. Its impact will be critical. We have repeatedly called for follow up talks on ECFA. We must clear away the obstacles. We must draw up plans for a cross-Strait free trade zone. This is the main reason the Ma administration must not delay.

Accelerated signing of free trade agreements (FTAs) with major trading partners, and regional economic integration, are keys to industrial development. The Ma administration has announced its goal of joining the "Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership Agreement" (TPP) within 10 years. Taipei is actively seeking to sign FTAs with Singapore, New Zealand, India, the ASEAN countries, and even the U.S. and EU. But the key to success in these efforts, is Beijing's political concerns. Cross-Strait cooperation will endure only with cross-Strait integration and international economic support

We are moving toward global competition. South Korea and Japan are Taiwan's major rivals. Strategic cross-Strait industrial cooperation is an important market niche that can spell victory in the international market. The authorities on both sides of the Strait must approach the matter from the perspective of international industrial competition. They must identify the niche common to both sides of the Strait. They must encourage business owners on both sides of the Strait to form strategic alliances, to break through bottlenecks, and together build globally competitive, high-value industries.

In short, the successful elements of cross-Strait industrial cooperation, must be based on free trade and market rules. Only through global competition in the marketplace, can industries on both sides of the Strait create a win-win situation that offers hope for the future.

兩岸產業合作應有宏觀思維
2011-11-03 中國時報

近來兩岸產業合作問題受到很大關注，上月20日第7次江陳會發表《加強兩岸產業合作的共同意見》，28、29日首屆兩岸產業論壇達成多項共識，昨日經合會第2次例會亦總結產業合作階段性成果，並策勵將來。鑑於當前兩岸產業皆面臨景氣衰退衝擊、結構調整及出口競爭等多重挑戰，產業合作須從總體面進行整合檢討及規畫，才能切中需要，事半功倍。

從短期來看，歐債危機及美國失業率居高不下，導致全球經濟二次衰退風險升高，美、歐市場需求大幅減弱，自新興市場國家進口持續減緩，從而影響該等國家的出口及經濟成長。近月大陸出口及經濟成長均明顯減緩，台灣主力出口產品為易受景氣波動影響的資、通訊等高科技產品，因而更是首當其衝，過去政府極力扶持的記憶體（DRAM）及面板產業虧損累累，正面臨存亡絕續的關頭；在兩岸建立大規模產業內分工的電腦、手機、LED等產業也都面臨產能過剩、訂單不足的嚴重問題；金融海嘯後兩岸大力扶持的綠能產業如太陽能、電動車等亦淪為艱困產業。若短期難關都無法度過，豈有能力奢談兩岸產業合作？

從中長期來看，兩岸產業發展亦面臨至為嚴峻的挑戰。在國際市場上，台灣主要競爭對手南韓積極對外洽簽《自由貿易協定》（FTA），歐韓及美韓FTA完成簽署及陸續生效，對台灣出口的衝擊尤深。而台灣出口最具優勢的大陸市場，不僅受南韓產品與日俱增的威脅，而且因為大陸本土產業快速升級，在零組件、中間原料及機器設備供應方面，大量取代台灣製造產品，從而導致台灣出口產品在大陸市占率不斷下降。有專家估計5至10年內，台灣對大陸的出口超過一半將被大陸及其他國家產品所取代，台灣產業的危機正日益逼近。

大陸產業本身也面臨到工資大幅上漲、房地價及原材料價格不斷攀升、人民幣升值等多重因素衝擊，低附加價值的加工出口產業面臨強大的轉型升級壓力或被迫移往內陸或境外。大陸十二五規畫亦因應內外情勢變化，加大力道推動產業轉型換代，並大力扶植戰略性新興產業發展。此等產業政策方向明顯和台灣產業出現競合關係，從而也增添兩岸產業合作的複雜度。

面對嚴苛的產業發展環境，兩岸合作必須抓對方向並有優先緩急的順序。在短期，合作重點應在協助產業因應景氣衰退，兩岸政府的角色當在協助整合產能過剩的產業，減少重複投資，汰弱留強，以為景氣好轉後競爭力提升，打下基礎。如面板、LED、太陽能等面臨衰退產業可列為最優先合作的項目，若能見到具體成效，必能增強兩岸產業合作的信心。

在中長期，兩岸都須深刻體認：面向全球競爭，遵循市場法則，是提高產業競爭力的不二法門，因此，兩岸皆應加速朝自由貿易方向發展。《兩岸經濟合作架構協議》（ECFA）旨在建立兩岸自由貿易區，對兩岸產業分工及長期競爭力提升，具有關鍵的影響。我們已多次呼籲應加速ECFA後續4大協議的諮商，排除阻力，及早完成兩岸自由貿易區的路徑圖。這也是馬政府不能再繼續拖延的關鍵作為。

另一方面，加速和主要貿易對手洽簽自由貿易協定（FTA），融入區域經濟整合，亦是產業發展的關鍵。馬政府宣示台灣將以10年內加入《跨太平洋經濟夥伴協定》（TPP）為目標；台灣也正積極推動和新加坡、紐西蘭、印度、東協各國乃至美國、歐盟等洽簽FTA；但這些努力成功與否關鍵，繫於北京的政治考量。我們相信，唯有兩岸在參與國際經濟整合上相互扶持，兩岸合作才能可長可久。

在邁向全球競爭過程中，兩岸產業的策略性合作，是和南韓、日本等主要對手決勝國際市場的重要利基。兩岸當局須從國際產業競爭戰略切入，找出兩岸共同的利基，進而引導或鼓勵兩岸業者進行策略性聯盟，才能突破瓶頸，共同打造具全球競爭力的高值產業。

總之，兩岸產業合作的成功要件，必須建立在自由貿易及市場法則之上，唯有通過全球市場競爭的檢驗，兩岸產業才能共創雙贏，締造令人期待的發展願景。