Reason vs. Emotion: The Two Yings

Reason vs. Emotion: The Two Yings
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 15, 2011

Summary: President Ma Ying-jeou must feel deeply frustrated. He has an impressive list of political accomplishments. But it apparently has no effect on his poll numbers, He watches helplessly as the opposition DPP's "Three Little Pigs" campaign gains momentum. Blue Camp momentum always seems to lag. Ma has probably repeatedly asked himself, "Why?"


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President Ma Ying-jeou must feel deeply frustrated. He has an impressive list of political accomplishments. But it apparently has no effect on his poll numbers, He watches helplessly as the opposition DPP's "Three Little Pigs" campaign gains momentum. Blue Camp momentum always seems to lag. Ma has probably repeatedly asked himself, "Why?"

Economic issues and the international climate may be beyond his control. But at least they are part and parcel of his cross-Strait policy, Ma Ying-jeou has methodically fulfilled his campaign promises, He continues to produce wonderful results, Even the international community is uniformly singing his praises.

For example, cross-Strait reconciliation has led to a diplomatic truce and expanded Taipei's international breathing space. Former Vice President Lien Chan was able to attend the APEC leaders summit. The "Northeast Asian Golden Triangle," comprising Taipei's Sungshan Airport, Tokyo's Narita Airport, Seoul's Gimpo Airport, and Shanghai's Pudong Airport, has begun operations, We have been invited to the World Health Assembly. We hve even signed a free trade agreement with Singapore and New Zealand, We have signed an open skies agreement with Japan. ROC citizens now enjoy visa-free treatment with many more countries. ECFA, through cross-Strait exchanges, has presented us with all sorts of opportunities. Look at the profits Mainland tourists have brought the tourism industry. Ma Ying-jeou has racked up a fine political record. At the very least, he has succeeded in his cross-Strait policy. Recently, when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attended APEC, she praised the progress made in cross-Strait relations over the past three years.

So why have these achievements not translated into popular support? The milkfish industry has benefitted from Ma's policy. So why do most fishermen persist in voting for Tsai Ing-wen?

There are two reasons. One is that although these achievements may be solid, they appeal only to reason. Voters may consider over them one by one. They may ask themselves whether these policies are to their benefit. But beneath it all, their feelings may be in turmoil.

By contrast, Tsai Ing-wen is riding a wave of grass-roots sentiment over the Three Little Pigs. This has generated a wave of emotions. This has fostered a feeling of comradeship, of fighting shoulder to shoulder in the trenches. This feeling of solidarity among "Little Pigs resisting the Big Bad Wolf" has moved Tsai and others. This is why Tsai's political momentum is so palpable.

Green Camp supporters have traditionally been united by feelings rather than reason. They may share the same historical grievances and communal traumas. They may come from the same underprivileged social classes. They may feel that treated unjustly by the monied elites. They may feel let down by the Ma administration. They may feel mistrustful. Once every four years their election ballots give them the unprecedented opportunity to force their rulers to kowtow. An increasingly intense wave of mob sentiment is providing zealous supporters the opportunity to vent their spleen. Everywhere Tsai Ing-wen's rallies are intense beyond expectation. Everywhere the piggy bank souvenirs are sold out.

The second reason is that Ma Ying-jeou's star power, which swept Taiwan's four years ago, has evaporated. The Chen regime was cast aside for its corruption. Ma Ying-jeou, with his squeaky clean image, became a star. The public invested its hopes for the future on him. But after three years in office, he has lost his charisma. Everyone still believes he is a good man. But he no longer inspires much enthusiasm among the public.

During the last election, Ma Ying-jeou's personal charisma papered over many of the Kuomintang's shortcomings. Now however, the veneer has been stripped away, The KMT has never been particularly adept at propaganda or mass movements, Now that its old familiar face is again visible, it finds itself alienated from grass roots voters, particularly the underprivileged. Under the leadership of Ma Ying-jeou, who operates strictly by the book, Ma's reelection campaign has been predictably lackluster. Add to this blunders committed by various ministries, and the enemy camp has had no shortage of campaign issues.

Reason vs. emotion. One uses his head. The other uses her heart. The impact of the former has clearly been inferior to the latter. But each side has its strengths and weaknesses. The final outcome will not be decided by any single factor.

Ma Ying-jeou's political achievements inspire little excitement. But at the same time, the emotions Tsai Ing-wen has stirred up provide no answers for cross-Strait policy. Public enthusiasm for the Three Little Pigs is impressive. But examine Tsia Ing-wen's campaign platform with a cool head, especially her cross-Strait policy prescriptions. How will she deal with Mainland China? How will she proceed with cross-Strait talks? How will she avoid interrupting existing exchanges and cooperation? How will she deal with the one China issue? She lacks concrete answers. She even lacks a clear policy direction. She has painted a bright future, by indulging in wishful thinking. Everything is smoke and mirrors.

This election is a tug of war between reason and emotion, Many people think with their heads, or their wallets. Ma Ying-jeou's policy prescriptions ought to be continued. If cross-Strait exchanges are interrupted, it will be a shame. But the political momentum achieved by tens of thousands of pigs is now sky high. When crowds shout in unison, when their blood boils, rational calculation is cast aside.

Actually, when Ma Ying-jeou was elected during the previous election, it was also due to emotions. Many people were fed up with Chen Shui-bian's corruption. They projected their hopes and dreams onto Ma Ying-jeou. Doing so enabled Ma Ying-jeou, a member of a social minority, to be elected. But this mass enthusiasm has faded. Ma's political achievements may win people's minds, but they cannot win peoples hearts. As a result, Ma's political momentum is trailing. On the other hand, voters who vote their heads may be silent, but they are not necessarily less numerous than those who vote their hearts. In the end will feelings prevail over reason? Or vice versa? The people await the outcome with bated breath.

理性對決感性 左右雙英誰出線
2011-11-15 中國時報

馬英九總統一定覺得很嘔，做了這麼多政績，似乎完全無助於民調數字，眼看著三隻小豬捲起千堆雪，藍營氣勢卻始終拉抬無力，恐怕已經在心裡問了無數次的「為什麼？」

的確，經濟問題與國際大環境有關，未必完全操之在我，但至少在兩岸政策部分，馬英九已經按部就班實現其政見，並且連續交出了亮麗成績，連國際社會也齊聲說讚。

例如兩岸和解帶來外交休兵並打開台灣國際空間，前副總統連戰可以出席亞太經合會領袖峰會，「東北亞黃金三角」松山機場─東京成田─首爾金浦─上海航線也開了，台灣獲邀出席世衛大會，與新加坡、紐西蘭洽簽自由貿易協定，與日本的投資協定和開放天空協定也簽了，還增加了那麼多免簽證就可以去的國家，更別提ＥＣＦＡ和兩岸交流創造的商機，以及大陸觀光客為業者帶來的獲利，這麼多的業績，證明馬英九至少在兩岸政策上是成功了，美國國務卿希拉蕊日前就在ＡＰＥＣ贊揚兩岸關係三年來的進展。

但是，為什麼，這些政績不能轉化為支持的人氣？為什麼受惠的虱目魚業者，大部分還是要票投蔡英文呢？

有兩個原因，其一是，這些政績雖然十分確鑿，卻是訴諸於理性層面的認知，選民可以一項一項檢視，就利益面思考是不是希望繼續這種政策，但思考時心底激不起感情的迴盪。

相對的，蔡英文挾三隻小豬捲起的基層熱情，卻帶動了感情面的澎湃，凝聚了許多人的認同感，以及大家一起作夥打拚的同志感，這種團結一致小豬對抗大野狼的自我意識，既感動了自己也感動了他人，因此人氣熱度非常外顯。

其實傳統的綠營支持者，本來就比較是感情的結合，他們也許分享了同樣的歷史情結與族群創傷，也許都有社會弱勢者對權貴階級與既有體制的不平與積怨，也許對馬政府有共同的失望或不信任，四年裡唯有這一刻，選票給予他們前所未有能讓執政者俯首聽命的權力，而現在愈來愈熱烈的聲勢讓支持者的情緒更加興奮激昂，也讓蔡英文各地的場子熱到不行，小豬賣到缺貨。

第二個理由，很顯然的，馬英九四年前席捲全台的明星魅力已經消失。在扁政府貪腐令人唾棄後，形象清新的馬英九曾是眾望所寄的明星，但當家三年來，他的個人魅力幾乎消磨殆盡。大家仍然相信他是個好人，但他已不再能激起群眾的熱情了。

也因為如此，上次大選，馬英九的個人魅力掩蓋了國民黨的缺點，但現在由於這層粉飾不再，以至於那個一直和基層群眾─尤其是弱勢者─有距離、又不擅長文宣與群眾造勢的國民黨，隨之原形畢露，在講究制度循規蹈矩的馬英九帶領下，選戰當然激不起熱情。更別提各部會不時凸槌出狀況，提供敵營做文章的好題材。

理性與感性，一個用腦袋，一個用心動情，呈現出來的效果當然差很多。但雙方各有長短，不能僅以一面斷勝負。

馬英九的政績無法激起熱情，然而，同樣的，蔡英文掀起的熱潮，卻也不能解答其兩岸政策要如何面對現實環境。群眾在三隻小豬上展現的熱情固然令人感動，可是真正冷靜檢視蔡英文的政見，尤其在兩岸政策方面，到底如何面對中國大陸、如何繼續進行兩岸協商、如何不讓現有交流合作中斷、如何處理一中立場，不要說沒有具體答案，也沒有明確的政策路線，除了描繪一廂情願的美好願景之外，其餘彷彿霧裡看花。

這場大選，是一場理性與感性的拉鋸，不少人用腦袋（或口袋）務實思考時，會覺得馬英九的政績值得延續，兩岸交流如果中斷相當可惜；但看到萬千小豬聲勢沖天、在群眾齊聲高呼時，頓時又熱血沸騰起來，理智算計全被拋到一邊。

其實，馬英九上次當選，也是拜感性之賜，當時許多人受夠了陳水扁的操作，把感情與希望投射到馬英九身上，才會讓族群背景屬於少數的馬英九當選。現在群眾的熱情已退，而政績可以說服人卻無法感動人，所以人氣略遜一籌。不過理性的票雖然沉默，未必少於感性，最後到底是感性的聲音大，還是理性的選票多，讓人屏息以待。