Will Joining the TPP Take 10 Months, or 10 Years?

Will Joining the TPP Take 10 Months, or 10 Years?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 16, 2011

Summary: The "Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement" (TPP) is the focus of world attention. Ten APEC members have already announced their intention to join. They hope to conclude negotiations next year. Meanwhile, our own government has declared that it will do its utmost to make significant progress over the next five or six years, in the hope that it can join the TPP in 10 years. But can we really afford to wait 10 years?

Full Text below:

The "Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement" (TPP) is the focus of world attention. Ten APEC members have already announced their intention to join. They hope to conclude negotiations next year. Meanwhile, our own government has declared that it will do its utmost to make significant progress over the next five or six years, in the hope that it can join the TPP in 10 years. But can we really afford to wait 10 years?

The TPP is a large scale FTA. Japan recently announced its intention to join. Canada and Mexico have also expressed a desire to join. Twelve of the 21 APEC member nations have expressed a desire to join. They include the United States, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, New Zealand, Australia, Chile, Peru, Mexico, and Canada. Once they have joined, the TPP will exceed the European Union in economic magnitude. It will become the world's largest free trade zone. Taipei and Beijing have promoted ECFA and FTAs. Therefore this is a wonderful opportunity for Taipei to avoid marginalization. South Korea, the United States, and the EU have signed FTAs, giving them an advantage. This TPP provides Taipei with an opportunity to neutralize that advantage. TPP membership is supposed to be open to all APEC economies. This enables us to avoid the political repercussions of bilateral FTAs.

The TPP is manna from heaven. Yet we treat it like a hot potato, We insist that we need 10 years of preparation before we can sign. According to this timetable, we would join the TPP in 2021. It is not easy to predict what the global economy will be like 10 years from now, But according to WTO Secretariat statistics, an average of 23 FTAs have been signed each year over the past 10 years. Prior to 1995, the annual average was three per year. Therefore we can reasonable infer that by 2021 South Korea will have signed FTAs with Mainland China and Japan. It may even have joined the TPP. ASEAN has already completed its ASEAN plus Six economic integration plan with Mainland China, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Australia, and India. Asian-Pacific regional economic integration should be complete by the end of the coming decade. Taipei has two cross-Strait trade agreements. How many FTAs will it have signed by then? That is hard to say. Especially since the TPP already includes most of the partners we hope to sign FTAs with. How will our government explain why it is unwilling or unable to join the TPP, even as it attempts to sign individual FTAs? By 2021, we may have already fallen by the wayside.

Why must we wait ten years? The government says the TPP is a "high quality and comprehensive" liberalization agreement. It includes many provisions for zero tariffs. Therefore, for the time being, we cannot sign. But with the exception of the ASEAN countries, our government intends to sign FTAs with many other countries. Over 90% of these FTAs involve "high-quality and comprehensive" agreements and many provisions for zero tariffs. South Korea has offered the United States zero tariffs on 99% of its industrial products. Therefore if we cannot sign the TPP, neither can we sign FTAs. Neither can the Taipei/Singapore FTA go forward. This is the best example.

Secondly, some argue that parts of our agricultural sector need tariff protection. FTAs allow tariffs on some sensitive products. The FTA between South Korea and the EU allows tariffs on rice, hot peppers, and garlic. How many of these tariffs are allowed depends on other quid pro quo exchanges. Alas, our government has given up without a fight.

More importantly, such problems are not unique to Taiwan. Don't Vietnam and Malaysia's manufacturing sectors need help while they attempt to upgrade? Why are they able to sign high-quality and comprehensive FTAs and not demand 10 year buffers? The public on Taiwan has been worried about South Korea. It has been able to do things we could not. But even Vietnam and Malaysia have demonstrated determination and ambition lacking on Taiwan. How can we explain away Vietnam and Malaysia? South Korea and Japan's agricultural sectors are similar to ours. Yet they have already signed FTAs with the United States and the EU. They have already decided to join the TPP. What reason do we have not to keep pace? If we persist in this behavior, we will be perceived as a footdragger -- as someone fearful of being marginalized, but simultaneously unwilling to liberalize.

Elections are approaching. The KMT and DPP both have reservations about the TPP. They are both afraid to confront agriculture and non-competitive industries. Which party and which candidate is in power will make make no difference. No one will be able to evade responsibility. The decisions we evade today, we will regret tomorrow. Other countries are moving ahead at light speed, We cannot wait 10 years. Joining the TPP is something we should do within 10 months.

用十個月或十年加入TPP？
【聯合報╱社論】
2011.11.16 01:54 am

「跨太平洋夥伴協議」（TPP）成為舉世焦點，已有十個APEC經濟體宣布加入，欲在明年完成談判；於此同時，我政府卻宣稱，將儘量努力在五、六年取得重大進展，預計在十年內加入TPP。但是，我們真的還有十年可等嗎？

TPP是一個大型的FTA。加上近日宣布加入的日本，以及表達意願的加拿大、墨西哥，已經囊括二十一個APEC國家中的十二個（美、日、星、馬、汶萊、越南、紐、澳、智利、秘魯、墨西哥及加拿大）；其完成後的經濟規模將超越歐盟，成為全球最大的自由貿易區。按照過去政府推動兩岸ECFA及FTA的說法，這正是讓台灣迅速脫離邊緣化陰影的大好機會，更可一舉化解韓國因與美國、歐盟簽成FTA所享有的優勢。況且，TPP原本應當開放給所有APEC經濟體加入，因此無須擔心如洽簽雙邊FTA所涉及的政治問題。

但是這個天上掉下來的大好機會，我們卻似當成燙手山芋，宣稱尚須十年的調適準備，才能放心加入。按照這個規劃，台灣也許將在2021年加入TPP。要精準預測十年後的全球經貿模樣不容易，但依據WTO秘書處的統計，過去十年中，全球每年平均完成二十三個FTA（1995年之前每年平均三個），因此可以合理推斷的是，屆時如韓國已經完成與中國大陸及日本的FTA（甚至加入了TPP），而東協也已經完成與中、日、韓、紐、澳、印度等所謂東協加六經濟整合佈局。未來十年，亞太區域經濟整合應已完成；但台灣除兩岸經貿協議外，有幾個重要的FTA產生，卻很難評估。特別是由於屆時TPP應當已經涵蓋大部分我們有意洽簽FTA的對象，我國將如何解釋不願、無法加入TPP，卻要推動個別FTA的原因。所以，等到2021年，我們可能真的已經落在邊緣。

要等十年的原因為何？政府說因為TPP是「高品質，全面性」的自由化協定，零關稅比例極高，所以目前尚無加入的條件。但是除東協國家外，其他我國有意洽簽FTA的國家，他們過去完成的FTA也都是「高品質，全面性」協定，零關稅的比例一般都超過九成（韓國給予美國工業產品零關稅的比例，便高達99％）；因此若無法加入TPP，也等於不可能洽簽FTA。台星FTA沒有進展，就是最好的例證。

其次，亦有論點認為目前我國部分的農業部門，仍需要關稅保護。但任何FTA皆或有給予部分敏感產品不降稅的空間；韓國在韓歐盟FTA中便成功將稻米、辣椒及大蒜列為排除或不降稅的例外。當然這個空間的大小，將取決於其他交換條件優惠程度的高低，但現在政府的心態，似乎是未戰先怯，遑論正面爭取這個空間。

更重要的是，這些都不是台灣特有的問題。越南及馬來西亞的製造業，難道沒有輔導升級的需要？但為何他們可以迎向高品質FTA，不需要十年緩衝？過去大家都很關切為何韓國能，我們不能；但當越南、馬來西亞的決心與野心都已經超越台灣時，我們又該如何自處面對？再者，韓、日的農業結構與我國接近，但前者已經完成美、歐FTA，而後者也決定加入TPP。又是什麼理由，讓我們不能同步前進？如此發展下去，在FTA賽局中，台灣恐將被視為一個「不願邊緣化卻又不願自由化」的「奧客」。

大選在即，國、民兩黨似皆對TPP的表態有所保留，唯恐對手挾農業及弱勢產業相對抗。但是，未來不論是哪一黨、什麼人主政，都逃避不了這個「今天不決定，明天就會後悔」的抉擇；其他國家都在用光速前進，我們已經沒有十年可以等待，加入TPP應該是十個月就要完成評估之事。