What Exactly Does James Soong Want?

What Exactly Does James Soong Want?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 9, 2011

Summary: Many people are asking what exactly is James Soong thinking? What exactly does he want? What James Soong must do now, is settle down. He must re-evaluate his own legacy, and seek a lasting place for himself in history. One Green Camp talking head has already characterized him as a "Blue Camp Wang Ching-wei, and a Green Camp Wu San-gui." Is James Soong deluded enough to imagine that Tsai Ing-wen will work some sort of political miracle on his behalf?

Full Text Below:

Many people are asking what exactly is James Soong thinking? What exactly does he want?

Consider some possibilities. One. He wants to be president. Two. He wants to form a People First Party caucus in the Legislative Yuan. Three. He wants to be appointed Premier or SEF Chairman. Four. He wants to bring down Ma Ying-jeou and help Tsai Ing-wen get elected.

One. James Soong cannot possibly be elected president. Consider current election sentiment. Tsai Ing-wen commands at least 45% of the vote. Therefore if James Soong wants to be elected, it is not enough that he win more votes than Ma Ying-jeou. Ma Ying-jeou cannot win more than 10% of the votes. Only then can Soong surpass the 45% of the vote commanded by Tsai Ing-wen. Soong knows this is impossible, Therefore his goal is not be be elected president.

The Soong Camp began mobilizing in June. Its stated goal was to win three seats in the legislature in order to form a PFP legislative caucus. But if this is James Soong's real goal, why did he adopt such extreme rhetoric as "Reject Ma, Defend Taiwan?" After all, most of the Soong Camp's support comes from the Blue Camp. In single candidate voting districts, the "Reject Ma, Defend Taiwan" battle cry adopted by the "Orange Army" (PFP) is unlikely to win any votes. What's worse, the Soong Camp is deliberately fielding PFP candidates in voting districts where the Blue Camp is under threat from the Green Camp. The PFP is obviously not attempting to get its own candidates elected. It is merely attempting to undermine KMT candidates in order to help DPP candidates. it is merely attempting to reduce the number of seats held by the KMT in the legislature. It is merely attempting to create an election upset. Will James Soong's "Reject Ma, Defend Taiwan" strategy have a coat tails effect? Or will those riding Soong's coat tails get trampled to death? That remains to be seen. Fairminded observers have concluded that if Soong merely wanted to form a PFP party caucus, he could have used any number of other means. He had no need to march in lockstep with the Green Camp and shout "Reject Ma, Defend Taiwan." By adopting this strategy, PFP legislative candidates will probably run headlong into a brick wall.

Is Soong seeking an appointment to SEF Chairman or Premier following the election? The odds against any such appointment are astronomical. Even assuming such an appointment was in the offing initially, Soong's actions over the past few months have scotched any possibility of such an appointment today. Whether the Kuomintang wins or the Democratic Progressive Party wins makes no difference. Soong has so thoroughly discredited himself no one is going to appoint him to any position. Even if they were to appoint him to an important position, Soong is so far gone he would not be able to hold on to it. There is no need to conduct a poll to determine whether the public supports James Soong as Premier. The public will not tolerate James Soong as Premier. If the KMT prevails, it cannot possibly appoint Soong as Premier. By the same token, the "Bian/Soong Meeting" was unacceptable to the Green Camp in 2005. Soong has since discredited himself even further. How can the Green Camp possibly accept him now? Besides, given James Soong's character and image, how can Beijing possibly tolerate someone of Soong's ilk as "SEF Chairman?"

In sum, James Soong cannot possibly be elected president. If he merely wants to establish a PFP legislative caucus, he does not need to adopt such a radical stance. Over recent months he has thoroughly discredited himself. He has ruled out the possibility of anyone appointing him to a position of importance in the wake of the election. Therefore if James Soong persists in running for president to the bitter end, his only possible motive would be to "Topple Ma, and prop up Tsai Ing-wen." Given current election sentiment, as long as James Soong wins three to five percent of the vote, he may be able to ensure a Tsai Ing-wen victory.

James Soong truly has overplayed his hand. On the one hand, by shouting "Reject Ma, Defend Taiwan," he persuaded the DPP to help his petition drive. On the other hand, he draped himself in the flag in order to win votes from the Blue Camp. His was a stunning display of deceit and viciousness. Soong probably thinks he outsmarted everyone. But most Blue Camp and Green Camp supporters will merely view him with contempt. He has forfeited any role on Taiwan or in cross-Strait relations. He has shredded any vestige of credibility he might once have commanded. Rumors have emerged about possible KMT/PFP "consultations." But given James Soong's habit of deceit, who would dare risk "consulting" with him? Who would dare risk negotiating with him in good faith, only to be stabbed in the back?

Wu Poh-hsiung put it succinctly. The only possible outcome of the current election is the election of Ma Ying-jeou or Tsai Ing-wen. There is no third possible outcome. Most people understand this. James Soong understands this as well. If Soong remains in the running to the bitter end, it could lead to a Tsai Ing-wen victory. If that happens, what will he say to all those young people wearing shirts emblazoned with the ROC flag? If Tsai Ing-wen is elected, how can she possibly form a coalition government with James Soong, who said that "If Beijing's missiles attack Taiwan, it will be in defense of China's territory?" He has resorted to every trick in the book. Let us hope he has not put all our lives at risk.

What James Soong must do now, is settle down. He must re-evaluate his own legacy, and seek a lasting place for himself in history. One Green Camp talking head has already characterized him as a "Blue Camp Wang Ching-wei, and a Green Camp Wu San-gui." Is James Soong deluded enough to imagine that Tsai Ing-wen will work some sort of political miracle on his behalf?

宋楚瑜意欲何為
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.11.09

許多人都在問：宋楚瑜到底在想什麼？他到底要什麼？

能夠想像的選項是：一、他想當總統。二、想在立法院成立親民黨黨團。三、想當行政院長或海基會董事長。四、想拉下馬英九，助蔡英文當選。

首先，宋楚瑜絕無可能當選總統。以目前選情來看，蔡英文至少應有超越四十五％選票的實力；因此，宋楚瑜若要當選，非但要超越馬英九，且要將馬的得票壓低至十％以下，他始有可能超越蔡英文的至少四十五％而當選。這是宋楚瑜亦自知絕無可能之事，所以他的目標絕非當選總統。

六月間宋營開始動作之初，是以「當選三席立委／組成立院黨團」為目標；如果這就是宋楚瑜要的，則他當不必採「棄馬保台」如此偏激的路線。因為，宋營的主要票源畢竟是在泛藍，而在單一選區中，橘軍欲在「棄馬保台」的旗幟下勝出，恐非易事。再者，宋營特意挑幾處藍綠緊繃的選區提名，其意顯然不在自己人當選，而是要拉下國民黨的候選人，助民進黨候選人當選，以降低國民黨在立院的席次，便利選後操作。因而，宋的「棄馬保台」路線，究竟是「母雞帶小雞」或「母雞踩死小雞」，恐怕亦是尚待觀察。平允的評論是：如果宋要的只是「成立黨團」而已，他其實有其他許多路可走，不必非要與綠營同走「棄馬保台」之路；如今走上這條路，反而使立委參選人四處碰壁。

那麼，宋要的是在選後出掌海基會或任行政院長嗎？即使這種想像原本或有萬分之一成真的可能性，如今亦已因宋幾個月來的操作而化作泡影。因為，不論國民黨或民進黨勝選執政，皆不可能任用人格形象扭曲至此地步的宋楚瑜；而即使任用，人格扭曲至此的宋楚瑜也難安其位，不要看今日民調或有支持他出任閣揆者，但屆時民意絕不可能容他。莫說國民黨若勝選，已不可能任用宋；綠營在二○○五年不能接受「扁宋會」，難道如今能接受人格形象更加扭曲的宋楚瑜？再者，以宋楚瑜如此人格形象，北京又豈能以平常心面對這位「海基會董事長」？

綜上所論，宋楚瑜絕無可能當選總統；他若只是想組成立院黨團，則不必採如此偏激的路線；而他在這段期間將自己的人格形象扭曲至此地步，實可謂已經自我否定了選後主政者受其挾制而任用他出掌要職的可能；那麼，宋楚瑜如果執意參選到底，他唯一最可能實現之目的，就是「拉下馬英九／扶上蔡英文」。因為，照目前緊繃的選情來看，宋楚瑜只要獲得三至五％的選票，即可能保送蔡英文勝選。

宋楚瑜確實玩得太過頭了。他一手用「棄馬保台」拉民進黨為他連署；另一手想用背後兩排國旗裝去挖藍營的選票。這或許是令人瞠目結舌的權謀演示，卻也是一個猙獰人格的公開展演；宋也許自以為得計，卻必被藍綠雙方多數民眾所輕蔑，亦失去了未來在台灣及兩岸扮演任何重要角色的信任度。至於傳出國親兩黨仍待「協商」，但以宋楚瑜的詭詐反覆，誰敢冒著被他反噬的風險與他「協商」？

吳伯雄說得對，這次大選只有馬英九當選或蔡英文當選兩種可能，不會有第三種結果；這應是多數國人的共同見解，亦當是宋楚瑜所心知肚明。宋如果參選到底而造成蔡英文當選，他如何面對那些穿國旗裝的年輕人？而蔡英文若當選，她又如何能與曾經主張「北京飛彈襲台／是為捍衛中國領土」的宋楚瑜組「聯合政府」？這真是機關算盡，莫要誤了卿卿的性命！

宋楚瑜現在應當做的是好好沉澱下來，重新為自己的歷史評價找尋可大可久的定位。且聽綠營名嘴已將他稱作「藍營的汪精衛／綠營的吳三桂」，宋楚瑜還能妄想蔡英文若當選能為他帶來什麼政治奇蹟？