Trans-Pacific Partnership: Key to Free Trade Island

Trans-Pacific Partnership: Key to Free Trade Island
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 14, 2011

Summary: A crisis is an opportunity. But a crisis also creates opportunities. The Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) was once unknown. Only economic and trade experts had heard of it. But today many nations are in crisis. This has forced the TPP onto the international stage. Taipei is an important participant in the Asian-Pacific regional economy. But it has been unable to join the club, and is in danger of marginalization. The TPP offers Taipei an excellent opportunity to join. The government should make a concerted effort do so.

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A crisis is an opportunity. But a crisis also creates opportunities. The Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) was once unknown. Only economic and trade experts had heard of it. But today many nations are in crisis. This has forced the TPP onto the international stage. This has transformed the TPP into an Asian-Pacific trade and economic battlefield for Washington, Tokyo, and Beijing. The TPP has yet to be established. Taipei is an important participant in the Asian-Pacific regional economy. But it has been unable to join the club, and is in danger of marginalization. The TPP offers Taipei an excellent opportunity to join. The government should make a concerted effort do so. It should expand without and change within. It should resolve to create a free trade island.

The TPP was jointly promoted by four members of APEC: Singapore, Chile, Brunei and New Zealand. They felt APEC was too disorganized and too passive. They felt it stood in the way of a well thought out free trade agreement. In 2009, following the Asian financial crisis, Washington began taking part in the negotiations. Washington focused on the benefits of economic development and the threat of a rising Mainland China. Washington attracted new members, and led negotiations. This year's APEC leaders meeting is about to convene. Tokyo has long resisted free trade. But South Korea, the European Union, and the United States have signed FTAs. Japan's domestic industrial base is being hollowed out. These internal pressures have forced Japan to join. The world's first largest and third largest economies have simultaneously joined, and given the TPP a tremendous boost.

With powerful encouragement from the United States and Japan, the TPP now has 10 members. This will accelerate the development of the TPP, which now comprises one-third of the world's economy. U.S. President Barack Obama says he hopes an agreement can be reached next year. This is bound to encourage Asian-Pacific countries to join. Under the circumstances, the TPP is not merely a bully pulpit for the United States. It may also become a mini-WTO inside APEC. It may become a Free Trade Area in the Asian-Pacific (FTAAP). Beijing is the leader of ASEAN plus one (Mainland China), ASEAN + Three (Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea), and ASEAN plus Six (Mainland China, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Korea, India). This means the Asian-Pacific trading system will have two leaders, Mainland China and the United States. Will they check and balance each other? Or will they become one? These trends will affect the Asian-Pacific region. Mainland China does not oppose the TPP. But it stresses the importance of multilateralism. This means it has more to say on the matter. More importantly, under United States leadership, the TPP will probably become a platform for new generation international trade rules. Traditionally FTAs have emphasized the liberalization of trade in goods. New generation international trade rules emphasize the environment, labor, intellectual property rights, and other criteria, Obama has stated that the TPP has the potential to become a model for all future trade agreements, and not merely the Asian-Pacific region,

The TPP is taking a certain direction. This tells us that joining the TPP is essential for Taiwan, due to its high dependence on trade. It is essential for three reasons. First, it is essential to expanded trade, lowered tariffs, liberalized markets, and other measures conducive to Taiwan's exports, and reduce the cost of imports. Minister of Economic Affairs Shih Yen-hsiang bluntly declared that if members protect each other and open themselves up to each other but exclude Taiwan, we will find the going very hard. This was originally one of Taiwan's economic strategies. President Ma set up groups to promote an FTA. But little progress was made toward recognizing the Republic of China's sovereignty, due to harsh international realities. This is the second reason we must join the TPP.

The TPP is an agreement whose members were primarily supposed to come from APEC. Taipei has a moral and legal right to join. It is not entirely free from interference by sovereign states. Other governments have negotiated FTAs individually. By comparision, Taipei's status has led to different kinds of complexities and difficulties. Taipei and Beijing disagree about Taipei's participation in international trade organizations. But they have a shared framework, that enables Taipei's participation in TPP negotiations. They can consult with its ten member governments. This is an efficient and feasible way to prevent Taiwan's marginalization, therefore should not be taken lightly.

The third is the urgent need for industrial restructuring on Taiwan. Joining the TPP is the same as promoting FTAs. The hope is that others will open their markets to Taiwan, and that others will want Taiwan to open its markets to them. In sum, it is all about opening one's markets, and restructuring one's industries. The only difference is some FTAs are more open than others, The TPP is more open than most FTAs. It is considered a high quality, high threshold FTA. Will Taipei be able to join? This does not depend entirely on others. It depends more on ourselves. As Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office Director Wang Yi asked Taipei: "Do you really want to join?" He hit the nail squarely on the head.

The government has promoted FTAs for years. But it has never made the necessary changes to our industry. We have made little real progress in FTAs. Slow industrial restructuring is hardly the only reason. Another reason is idle industrial capacity. Therefore the government must not just talk about joining the TPP. It must gather its wits and marshal its forces. It must formulate a comprehensive plan to accelerate industrial restructuring, It must turn Taiwan into a true free trade island.

加入TPP：打造經貿自由島的關鍵一役
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.11.14

危機是轉機，危機也創造轉機。一個原本沒沒無聞，只有經貿專家聽過的「跨太平洋戰略經濟夥伴關係協定（Trans-Pacific Partnership，TPP）」，就在各國因應各自危機的考量下，一躍而上國際舞台，成為美國、日本及中國大陸互爭亞太經貿盟主的新戰場。尚未成形的ＴＰＰ，對同是亞太重要一員，卻苦無入門之徑而有邊緣化危機的台灣，無疑提供了一個絕佳機會，政府應以最大決心爭取加入，讓向外拓展、對內調整、打造經貿自由島畢其功於一役。

ＴＰＰ是由ＡＰＥＣ的四個成員新加坡、智利、汶萊及紐西蘭發起，一開始或是有感於ＡＰＥＣ的鬆散與無為，而擬訂立一個具規範性的自由貿易協定（ＦＴＡ）；二○○九年，著眼於金融海嘯後亞洲經濟發展利益及中國崛起的威脅，美國加入了談判，吸引了新成員，並主導了談判；今年ＡＰＥＣ領袖會議舉行前夕，向來對自由貿易保守以對的日本，眼看韓國分與歐盟、美國簽署ＦＴＡ及內部產業空洞化壓力，也宣布加入，使ＴＰＰ因同時擁有全球第一、第三大經濟體而聲勢大增。

在美、日兩強推動下，已有十個成員、經濟規模占全球三分之一的ＴＰＰ將加速發展，美國總統歐巴馬已表示，希望明年完成協議，勢將刺激亞太各國思考加入必要性。在此一情勢下，ＴＰＰ不只是美國重新取得亞太經貿發言權的平台，更可能成為ＡＰＥＣ區域內的小型世貿組織，向亞太自由貿易區（ＦＴＡＡＰ）邁進；它也使得亞太貿易發展體系，由現今中國大陸主導的「東協加一（中）」、「東協+三（中日韓）」、「東協加六（中日韓紐澳印度）」單核心，形成中、美分庭抗禮的雙軸心，未來是彼此制衡或融為一體，將影響亞太整合趨勢，目前中方雖不反對ＴＰＰ，但也強調多邊性，顯示尚有後話；更重要的是，在美國主導下，ＴＰＰ更可能成為新世代國際貿易規則的制定平台，從傳統ＦＴＡ聚焦的貨品貿易自由化，跨向環保、勞工及智慧財產權等規範，歐巴馬即明言，ＴＰＰ不僅有潛力成為亞太地區模式，更能成為未來貿易協定模式。

由ＴＰＰ的發展趨向可知，加入ＴＰＰ對貿易依存度甚高的台灣經濟至關重要，其必要性主要顯現於三方面。第一是要擴張貿易，降低關稅、開放市場等自由化措施有利於台灣的產品出口，而可相對降低進口成本；經濟部長施顏祥即不諱言，因為成員間互相保護又相互開放，如果不能加入ＴＰＰ，台灣會很辛苦。這原是台灣經貿戰略之一環，馬總統還成立ＦＴＡ小組推動，但受限於台灣主權認定的國際現實而少有進展，而此一限制正是必須加入ＴＰＰ的第二個原因。

依初始規劃，ＴＰＰ是一以ＡＰＥＣ成員為主體的開放性協定，使台灣擁有申請加入的正當性與合法性，儘管仍無法完全免除主權國家的干擾，但相較於逐一與各國洽商ＦＴＡ、建立不同模式的複雜度與困難度，以及兩岸間對台灣參與國際經貿組織的共識不足，台灣參與ＴＰＰ有既定的共同談判框架可循，並可同步開啟與十國的協商，效率高，可行性也高，實是突破台灣邊緣化困境的關鍵一役，不可輕縱。

第三個必要性則是台灣內部產業調整的急迫性。其實，加入ＴＰＰ與推動ＦＴＡ一樣，既希望他國對台灣開放市場，他國也會要台灣開放市場，其本質都是市場開放、產業調整的過程，所不同者在於不同的ＦＴＡ有不同的開放程度，ＴＰＰ的開放程度因高於一般ＦＴＡ，而被視為高品質、高門檻的ＦＴＡ，因而台灣能否加入，不完全受制於人，更是操之在己，一如大陸國台辦主任王毅對台灣想加入ＴＰＰ的質疑：「你們真的要加入？」這一問正問到了關鍵。

政府推動ＦＴＡ多年，但並沒有相應的產業調整計畫及行動，ＦＴＡ缺乏實質進展，豈僅是產業調整緩慢的結果，它更是產業發展怠速的原因。因此，政府加入ＴＰＰ不能再流於空談，而應藉此集智集力，全盤規劃一個加速推動產業結構的計畫，打造台灣成為真正的經貿自由島。