Chen Guangcheng's Impact on Washington-Beijing Strategic Dialogue

Chen Guangcheng's Impact on Washington-Beijing Strategic Dialogue
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 4, 2012

Summary: The relationship between Washington and Beijing is currently the world's most important bilateral relationship. But it is also the most unstable. Just before the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue was to convene, human rights lawyer Chen Guangcheng precipitated an incident by seeking refuge at the U.S. Embassy. The incident reveals that the two sides differ more than they agree, and that is deeply worrisome.

Full Text below:

The relationship between Washington and Beijing is currently the world's most important bilateral relationship. But it is also the most unstable. Just before the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue was to convene, human rights lawyer Chen Guangcheng precipitated an incident by seeking refuge at the U.S. Embassy. The incident reveals that the two sides differ more than they agree, and that is deeply worrisome.

Just before the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue convened, the Wang Lijun incident occurred. The atmosphere was already rife with suspicion. Wang Lijun sought refuge at the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu. Interactions between the two governments are based on the principle of "a pre-existing relationship that must not be harmed." Washington did not grant Wang political asylum. Beijng did not criticize Washington, Vice President Xi Jinping is also scheduled to visit the United States.

But in fact Beijing was suspicious. Just how much inside information did Wang Lijun provide Washington? Bo Xilai was detained and interrogated. The 18th Party Congress is about to convene. This suggests the impact of the incident on the CCP leadership. Washington's involvement concerns Beijing even more.

Washington and Beijing are preparing for their fourth round of high-level dialogue. But the Chen Guangcheng incident erupted Not only did Chen choose to enter the embassy, the US Embassy colluded. As Beijing sees it, in the future every political dissident will seek asylum at a US embassy or consulate. Or else the U.S. Embassy will became a center for the promotion of political dissent, This is intolerable.

As Washington sees it, Chen Guangcheng and Wang Lijun are different. This may be an election year. But even if it weren't, the President of the United States cannot hand over a political dissident. Republican rival Mitt Romney is watching Obama like a hawk, seeking to find fault. Washington must provide assistance to Chen Guangcheng, Beijing knows this.

Over the past six days, the two sides conducted intense negotiations. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rushed to Beijing ahead of schedule, She wanted to resolve the Chen Guangcheng incident. She wanted to ensure that the dialogue was held. She wanted to prevent the dialogue from being hijacked. Chen Guangcheng was originally scheduled to leave the embassy on the afternoon of the 2nd, to seek medical treatment. Everyone assumed the crisis was over. Who knew Chen would suddenly insist he was leaving under duress? The current situation is unclear, Many questions remain. What is certain, is that this incident will cast a pall over the two-day US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. That is unfortunate. If differences over this incident means that other problems get ignored, it will be unfortunate indeed.

The first problem is that regularly scheduled dialogue between Washington and Beijing is held at the highest level, This began during the Bush administration, at Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's initiative, The dialogue was originally exclusively economic. But the number of issues multiplied. Other than summits between the two sides' heads of state, the annual dialogue is the most important venue for bilateral relations.

Washington expects much from the upcoming dialogue. Last week anonymous officials told the New York Times that Beijing may be willing to cooperate on Iran, North Korea, and even Syria, Washington hopes to strike while the iron while hot, In her opening speech, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went so far as to say that cooperation between the two sides could resolve many of the world's major problems.

In his speech, Hu Jintao also raised the issue repeatedly. He said Beijing and Washington should develop a "new major power relationship." He said the two parties should reject the conventional wisdom, which says major powers must clash, Each nation faces different conditions. The two sides should learn mutual respect, They should seek a new way to relate. He said "this planet has enough room" to accommodate the development of both the United States and Mainland China.

Just before the dialogue between Beijing and Washington, Washington held "2+2" security talks with Tokyo and Manila. These were of course directed at Diaoyutai in the East China Sea and against Huangyan Island in the South China Sea. Military tensions have increased between Beijing and Tokyo, and Beijing and Manila. Beijing put on a show of strength. On the 29th, three People's Liberation Army Navy warships, sailed through the Kagoshima Osumi Strait. They traveled from the East China Sea into the Pacific, Japan's defense ministry said this was very close to Japanese territory. It termed it an "anomalous incident." Mainland China's Defense Ministry responded, saying it was merely exercising its freedom of navigation, In fact everyone knows that it took place the day before the US-Japan Security Conference, It was no coincidence.

Five days before the dialogue, the White House wrote to congressmen, saying it was willing to consider the sale of new fighters to Taipei, Taipei has asked to buy F-16C/Ds several times in the past. But Obama has never approved their sales during his three years in office. He was willing only to help Taipei upgrade her existing F-16A/Bs. When the news broke everyone on Taiwan was skeptical. They assumed Obama was currying favor with Congress, that he was giving its members face. They assumed Obama's gesture could not be taken seriously, Some assumed Washington was merely using Taipei as a bargaining chip, They assumed it was merely a move to gain more cooperation in the dialogue.

As Taipei sees it, Washington and Beijing must communicate their differences. They need not guess what the other is thinking. The Asia-Pacific has plenty of room. All countries can coexist. The newly emerging countries need not crowd out the existing powers. The dominant powers need not intentionally suppress the newly emerging ones. .

The Chen Guangcheng incident shows that Washington and Beijing still have basic differences, But they do not preclude cooperation in other areas. The two powers collided with each other 40 years ago. They have stumbled along since then. The two sides know they cannot isolate themselves from each other, Taipei is also part of the Asian-Pacific region. Smooth Washington-Beijing relations are good for the Asian-Pacific region. Tensions the two, on the other hand, are bad.
   
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2012.05.04
社論－陳光誠事件 衝擊美中戰略對話
本報訊

    　美中關係是現在全球最重要的雙邊關係，但也是最不穩定的關係，就在年度中美戰略與經濟對話召開前，維權律師陳光誠進入美國大使館，顯示歧見超過了共識，兩國關係令人憂心。

    　在這次美中戰略與經濟對話之前，由於王立軍事件，雙方已經瀰漫著猜疑的氣氛；王立軍進入成都美國領事館，兩國的處理互動，本是秉持著「不能傷害既存關係」的共識，美國沒有給政治庇護，中方也不批評美方，副主席習近平也如期訪美。

    　但是實際上，北京卻懷疑，究竟王立軍告訴美國人多少內幕？從事後薄熙來被雙規，可以窺見在十八大之前，此事對中共高層的衝擊有多大，美國介入，更讓北京耿耿於懷。

    　就在美中兩國籌備第四輪高層對話，又發生了陳光誠事件，這次不僅是人主動進入大使館，大使館還出來接應；從中國的角度來看，如果未來政治上有不同意見的人，全都到美國使領館要求庇護，或者是美國大使館成了推動異議的中心，這是不能容忍的。

    　但是從美國來看，陳光誠與王立軍不同，即使不是在大選年，美國總統都不可能把政治異議者交出來，更何況共和黨的對手羅姆尼還在虎視眈眈的挑歐巴馬的毛病，美國必須要提供協助給陳光誠，中國要認清這一點。

    　六天以來，雙方密切談判，國務卿希拉蕊還兼程提前趕到北京，希望陳光誠事件圓滿落幕，不要因此妨礙對話召開，或是對話被此事件主導，原本二日下午陳光誠離開大使館就醫，大家認為事件可以順利落幕，想不到他又表示自己並非自願離開。目前情況不明，還有太多的疑問，但可以確定的是，為期兩天的美中戰略與經濟對話，將籠罩在此事件的陰影下。這一點頗令人遺憾，若雙方的歧見導致其他問題被忽略，實屬不幸。

    　首先是美中間的固定對話，以這個形式的層級最高，原本在小布希政府時，財長鮑爾森倡議時，還僅是經濟對話，但有鑒於相關問題越來越多，越來越擴大，目前除了元首高峰會，每年一度的對話，已經是推動兩國關係的重要項目。

    　美方在此次對話召開前，抱著很高的期待。據匿名官員一周前告訴紐約時報，中方近來在伊朗、北韓，甚至敘利亞問題上都有合作的跡象，美方希望能夠打鐵趁熱，希拉蕊國務卿甚至在開幕致詞時都表示，兩國合作可以解決全世界主要問題。

    　胡錦濤在致詞時也多次提到，大陸與美國應該發展「新型大國關係」，他說兩國應該打破大國必會衝突的傳統邏輯，兩國國情不同，雙方應學會相互尊重，開闢發展關係的新路徑，並指「這個星球有足夠大的空間」容得下美中兩國共同發展。

    　在中美對話之前，美日與美菲連續舉行了「2+2」安全會議，這當然是針對之前在東海「釣魚台」，以及南海「黃岩嶼」，中國分別與日本與菲律賓間發生的軍事緊張。中國也還以顏色，廿九日三艘解放軍海軍艦艇，經過鹿兒島的大隅海峽，從東海駛往太平洋，日本防衛省認為離日本國土非常之近，是「異例事件」，中國國防部則回應是航行自由，其實大家都知道這在美日安全會議前一天發生，絕非偶然。

    　甚至在對話召開前五天，白宮致函國會議員時表示，願意考慮出售新戰機給台灣，過去台灣多次要求出售F-16C/D，但歐巴馬三年多任期內都未同意，最多只願意協助台灣將現有的F-16A/B升級。消息一出，台灣各界都表存疑，大多認為這是為了討好國會，給議員面子，訊息不能當真，還有人認為這是美國把台灣當成籌碼，好藉此在對話中換得中國更多的合作。

    　對於台灣來說，我們樂見中美溝通歧見，沒必要任意猜測對方的企圖，亞太有足夠的空間，可以讓所有國家共存共榮，新崛起的國家不用排擠既存的強權，而現在主導的強權無須刻意打壓。

    　陳光誠事件顯示，美中兩國間的基本歧異仍然存在，但是這並不妨礙雙方在其他領域的合作，畢竟兩國開始接觸以來，跌跌撞撞也走了四十年，雙方都體認離不開對方，對於同是亞太一份子的我們，美中兩國關係的順當平穩是亞太之幸，兩國關係緊張則是亞太之禍。