Regroup or Lose Half Your Fighting Effectiveness

Regroup or Lose Half Your Fighting Effectiveness
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 11, 2012

Summary: The Ma administration's governing team has been dogged by problems every step of the way. The DPP has threatened a vote of no confidence. The vote of no confidence will fail, But the ruling administration must regroup, The cabinet need not be dissolved. But half of its members must step down. Even if the president were to don two helmets, he could not pass his reforms, Is the KMT prepared to repeat the mistakes of 2000? Is it prepared once again to relinquish power to others?

Full Text below:

The term "rebellion" may be too strong. The term "riot" may be an exaggeration. But over the past 12 days, KMT legislators have repeatedly defected and refused to toe the party line. They defected on U.S. beef imports, twice. They held up the capital gains tax bill in the Rules Committee. They forced President Ma, in his capacity as party chairman, to make urgent telephone calls to the KMT legislative caucus. Ma said "The content may be negotiated. But the process must not stop." This tells us one thing. External chaos is not to be feared. Only internal chaos is. The KMT legislative caucus, the party, and the administration, must all be politically restructured.

Blue Camp legislators have held up the Executive Yuan's version of the capital gains tax bill. The Presidential Office and the Executive Yuan were completely left out of the loop. When Ma Ying-jeou learned about the situation, he made an urgent phone call to Premier Sean Chen, to Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-pyng, to KMT Secretary-General Lin Chung-sen, and to Policy Committee Convener Lam Chi. His instructions were to continue promoting the capital gains tax bill. He said it must be submitted to the Legislative Yuan Rules Committee. He said the public must not conclude that the administration isn't playing for keeps. In the Chungshan Committee Report he stressed that "The KMT's position has never changed, and its determination has never wavered." The next day, in the Central Standing Committee meeting, he invited Finance Minister Christina Liu to deliver a special report entitled, "the Significance and Benefits of the Capital Gains Tax." He even said "Ma Ying-jeou has always played for keeps!"

Ma Ying-jeou may be playing for keeps. But do KMT legislators support him as he plays for keeps? That has been repeatedly called into question. Several Blue Camp legislators blocked the bill, saying, "The KMT legislative caucus blocked the Executive Yuan proposal. This established a Guinness record This was clearly a vote of no confidence in Finance Minister Christina Liu. For Christina Liu this was a slap in the face. Other than step down, there is nothing else to do." The Blue Camp legislators surely realize that the introduction of the capital gains tax was not really a Ministry of Finance or Christina Liu initiative. The policy was part of President Ma Ying-jeou's post-reelection promise to "don a steel helmet and fight for reform." Tax justice is one of President Ma's major second term reforms. In other words, the face the Blue Camp legislator slapped was none other than President Ma's.

U.S. beef imports, gasoline and electricity rate hikes, and the capital gains tax have all undercut President Ma Ying-jeou's reputation. Blue Camp legislators are increasingly out of control. Gasoline and electricity rate hikes forced Ma Ying-jeou to call a late night press conference and announce that his single stage rate hike would be changed to a multi-stage rate hike. The capital gains tax also provoked a backlash within his won party. The "five man committee" was forced to meet at the Presidential Palace. The Ministry of Finance version had to be fine tuned before it could be sent to the Executive Yuan. Normally, they would have first consulted more parties. More importantly, when the Ministry of Finance sent its version of the bill to the Executive Yuan, a Legislative Yuan version had already been vetted by both Blue and Green Camp legislators. In other words, the Executive Yuan version might have been perfect. But once it is sent to the Legislative Yuan, it is normally reviewed alongside the Legislative Yuan's version.

Consider the Legislative Yuan proceedings. The capital gains tax is a major bill. Many people hold different views, A time-consuming debate is inevitable. Between submission to the Rules Committee and the Third Reading, there are bound to be twists and turns, The Ma administration could have used the review process to buy time. It could have improved communication and gained support. It submitted the case to the Rules Committee for review. But that does not mean the Third Reading can be successfully completed during this session. Suppose the Rules Committee shelves the bill as Ma said. This will make the public question the Ma administration's and President Ma's commitment to tax reform. The KMT legislative caucus held up the bill. Perhaps it did so as an expression of dissatisfaction with the lack of communication of the administration and the legislature. But this slap in Ma's face was also a slap in the KMT's face, The business sector opposes the capital gains tax. But many experts and NGOs have promoted this bill for years. The KMT legislative caucus won the hearts of the business sector. But it paid a price. It undercut its credibility regarding reform. Carelessness has hurt the presidential office, the Executive Yuan, and the party.

The KMT legislative caucus responded to the private sector. it even responded to political changes in the European Union, The resurgence of the left could lead to another economic crisis in the Eurozone. The KMT legislative caucus meant only to delay the bill. But it should have communicated better with the presidential office and the Executive Yuan. It should have eased outside concerns about a Blue Camp legislative rebellion. Strangely enough, the KMT legislative caucus did not give advance notice. When the Executive Yuan first heard about this development, it pretended nothing was wrong. It failed to offer a strong defense for its policy, It failed to toss the hot potato back at the Treasury, That evening its press release said, "The Ministry of Finance has been asked to communicate in a more proactive manner." As if the bill had been submitted to the Legislative Yuan by the Ministry of Finance. It ignored the fact that any bill, any budget must come from the Executive Yuan. Compare this to the proactive stance of the Executive Yuan during the U.S. beef imports controversy. Clearly the Executive Yuan has reservations about this bill. IN which case the first communication hurdle was not with the Legislative Yuan, but the Executive Yuan.

It began with gasoline and electricity rates hikes, and ended with capital gains taxes. President Ma wore a helmet, even as he flip-flopped all the way, Eventually Blue Camp legislators could rightly claim that the president conceded that the bill need not pass this session, and put it on hold. In essence, Ma Ying-jeou's own attitude forced legislators to work the problem out on their own. This in turn led to chaos in the legislature. In which case Ma Ying-jeou's leadership style and decision-making mode is what needs to be examined.

The Ma administration's governing team has been dogged by problems every step of the way. The DPP has threatened a vote of no confidence. The vote of no confidence will fail, But the ruling administration must regroup, The cabinet need not be dissolved. But half of its members must step down. Even if the president were to don two helmets, he cou8ld not pass his reforms, Is the KMT prepared to repeat the mistakes of 2000? Is it prepared once again to relinquish power to others?

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2012.05.11
再不重整戰力 不倒也垮大半
本報訊

    　說「造反」可能言重了，說「暴衝」或許也不至於；但是，國民黨立委在十二天之內，從美牛兩度跑票到程序委員會擋下開徵證所稅修法案，逼得馬總統以黨主席身分急電黨團，要求「內容可以討論，程序不要阻擋」，只說明一件事：不怕外亂，就怕禍起蕭牆，執政團隊從黨到政該重整步伐了。

    　行政院版證所稅案在立院程序委員會遭藍委暫緩列案，府院事前完全狀況外，馬英九得知後急電行政院長陳?、立法院長王金平、國民黨祕書長林中森、政策會執行長林鴻池，指示繼續推動證所稅案，務必付委，不要讓民眾以為政府「玩假的」，並在中山會報上強調，國民黨對於證所稅「立場沒有改變、決心從未鬆動」，隔天更在中常會邀請財政部長劉憶如專題報告「課徵證所稅之意義與效益」，他甚至說了一句，「馬英九從來不玩假的！」

    　馬英九或許真的不玩假的，但是，黨籍立委是否支持他玩真的，卻一再遭到挑戰。部分藍委在證所稅案被擋下後說，「黨團封殺行政院提案，創下金氏紀錄，無疑是對財政部長劉憶如投下不信任票，劉憶如被打了一耳光，除了下台之外，恐怕沒有第二條路。」藍委不會不知道，開徵證所稅案，嚴格說來並非財政部或劉憶如主動力推的政策，這個政策會出爐完全在於馬英九總統連任勝選後「戴著鋼盔拚改革」的宣示，租稅正義就是馬總統第二任的重大改革。換言之，藍委出手打的這一耳光，也打在了馬總統的臉上。

    　美牛案、油電雙漲政策到證所稅，重創馬英九總統的聲望，藍營立委益發肆無忌憚，油電雙漲逼到馬英九深夜舉行記者會宣布從一次漲足改弦更張為分階段調漲，證所稅案同樣是在黨內反彈並於總統府五人小組會議後，讓財政部方案送行政院後即先行微調，照正常，這個案子理應納入相對更多的意見；更重要的，早在財政部或行政院提出版本前，立法院藍綠立委早就提出不同的版本，換言之，不論行政院版本多麼完善，送進立法院之後，照正常程序就是要和立委版本併案審查。

    　從立法院議事程序分析，開徵證所稅是大案，各界意見甚多，耗費時日討論勢所必然，從付委到三讀，中間還有許多折衝時間，馬政府大可藉由審查過程以時間換取空間，並在這段時間擴大溝通，爭取支持，即使交付委員會審查，都未必表示這個會期能順利完成三讀，但若連付委程序都擱置，誠如馬英九所言，這會讓民眾懷疑馬政府、馬總統對租稅改革的決心。國民黨立院黨團透過「暫緩列案」，或許表達了他們對府院欠缺溝通的不滿，但這記耳光同樣打在國民黨臉上，工商界反對證所稅，但不少專家學者和民間團體多年推動此案，國民黨團遂了工商界的心，卻得付出反改革譏評的代價，輕重之間稍一不慎，就讓府院黨三方俱傷。

    　就算黨團有感於民間業者的反應，乃至歐盟諸國政治形勢變化，左派抬頭可能釀成歐元區再一波經濟風暴，有意緩列此案，也應與府院充分溝通，消弭外界對藍委造反的疑慮，奇特的是，黨團事前未照會，行政院第一時間聽聞此事也狀貌無事，既未為政策強力辯護，甚至直接把燙手山芋推回給財政部，晚間更直接以新聞稿表示，「責請財政部以更積極態度進行溝通」，彷彿此案係直接由財政部送進立法院，而疏忽了任何法案、預算都是從行政院出門的，對照美牛案時行政院的積極態度，很難不讓人懷疑包括行政院都對此案持保留態度，果若如此，那麼溝通的第一關還不在立法院，而在行政院了。

    　從油電雙漲到證所稅案，戴鋼盔的馬總統一路轉彎，轉到藍委可以理直氣壯以總統說這個會期可以不過而擋下法案付委，質言之，馬英九的態度造成立委揣摩的空間，進而釀成黨團亂象，那麼該檢討的還有馬英九的領導風格與決策模式。

    　一路數下來，馬政府的執政團隊每一個環節都有問題，民進黨揚言要發動倒閣，坦白講，倒閣不會成功，但執政團隊再不重整戰力，內閣不必倒也會垮掉一大半，就算總統戴兩頂鋼盔都無法進行改革，難道國民黨準備重蹈二千年之覆轍，再一次將政權拱手讓人嗎？