Ganging Up on Su May Do Nothing to Help Tsai

Ganging Up on Su May Do Nothing to Help Tsai
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 14, 2012

Summary: DPP officials are indeed combative. They do not shrink from a fight. The current party chairmanship election is exactly as Su Tseng-chang recently described. What began as a "Stop Su" campaign has become an "Attack Su" or even "Gang up on Su" campaign. Will Su be elected party chairman? Whether he will be or not, Su Tseng-chang's legitimacy as either party chairman or presidential candidate has been seriously compromised. This was the most important strategic objective of the anti-Su elements within the party.

Full Text below:

DPP officials are indeed combative. They do not shrink from a fight. The current party chairmanship election is exactly as Su Tseng-chang recently described. What began as a "Stop Su" campaign has become an "Attack Su" or even "Gang up on Su" campaign. Will Su be elected party chairman? Whether he will be or not, Su Tseng-chang's legitimacy as either party chairman or presidential candidate has been seriously compromised. This was the most important strategic objective of the anti-Su elements within the party.

Given Su Tseng-chang's reputation and strength, anti-Su elements knew they could not bring him down. But they succeeded in two objectives. One. They proved that Su Tseng-chang was planning to run in 2016. Two. They argued that "Anyone planning to run for president must not serve as party chairman." After several debates, this became the consensus. Therefore, if Su Tseng-chang is elected, any personnel appointments, organizational restructuring, even words or actions, will be subject to close scrutiny. Being elected will be akin to being put into a straitjacket.

The DPP has never before demanded that a candidate for the party chairmanship sign an affidavit swearing not to run for president. Why has it established this unprecedented, ultra-high threshold for Su? The answer course has to do with the larger picture. Su Tseng-chang's personal style has become the focus of the election.

The political situation on Taiwan today is extremely strange. Ma Ying-jeou has yet to be inaugurated for his second term. Yet public support has plummeted. Worse still, a successor within the KMT has yet to be found. Vice President-elect Wu Den-yih has readied himself. Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng is strategically positioned. Xinbei City Mayor Eric Chu waits in silence. The KMT is about to undergo a reshuffle. The DPP knows which way the political winds blow. The current power vacuum offers the DPP its best chance for a comeback.

This is also true for the party chairmanship election following the party's defeat in the presidential election. Four years ago, the planets revolved around Tsai Ing-wen. Today, Su Tseng-chang is the target of a gang attack. Four years ago, Tsai Ing-wen was a martyr who sacrificed herself on behalf of the DPP. Today, Su Tseng-chang is an opportunist picking the ripest persimmons off the trees. Chaos reigns, precisely because in the hearts of DPP members, the timing is too perfect. They cannot abide Su Tseng-chang being the beneficiary of this opportunity.

Why is the DPP so anti-Su? It has to do with Su's personal style. Trong Chai blasted Su. He said Su ignored party rules during the 2010 five cities elections and nominated himself for Taipei mayor. Following the party's defeat in the 2005 county and municipal elections, Su resigned the party chairmanship. But he informed the media before he informed the DPP Central Standing Committee. Hsu Hsin-liang mocked Su, saying he lacked guts and shirked responsibility. He said Su was incompetent. He pulled no punches. He said Su ignores those who reason with him. He said Su was more suited to be a prosecutor or a judge. He said Su was unsuited to be a leader of the DPP. He said that requires human compassion and revolutionary spirit. Hsu's implication was that if Su won the presidency, he would refuse to share power with others. Tsai Ing-wen might be less experienced, but she is a people person. She knows how to share power. She is the one DPP heavyweights prefer to work with.

Green Camp people have learned that "investing in the DPP" is good business. In 2008 the Chen family corruption scandals erupted. The DPP found itself at its nadir. But even at its darkest moment, it received 42% of the vote. During the next several by-elections, Green Camp supporters remained loyal. The storm did nothing to dampen their enthusiasm. During the 2012 presidential election. they lost by six percentage points. Three more percentage points and they could have retaken the presidency. .

Since DPP members have Su, why bother with Tsai? If one is bullish on the DPP, one need not bet on Su Tseng-chang. Will DPP members support Su Tseng-chang? That is his problem. But is Tsai Ing-wen a sure thing? That is the DPP's problem.

Tsai Ing-wen and Su Tseng-chang are competitors. Relations between the two are strained. But apart from leadership style, the two are not that different. Hsu Hsin-liang blasted Su Tseng-chang for never putting forth a meaningful cross-Strait policy. Hsu said Su's calls for dialogue and exchanges with the Mainland were empty rhetoric. Hsu said Su dismissed Washington's policy toward Taipei as "just talk." But these criticisms apply equally to Tsai Ing-wen. Her cross-Strait policy is also double talk. She too has seriously misread Washington's attitude toward Taipei. Only after her campaign defeat did DPP leaders belated complain that she was attacked on all three sides by Washington, Beijing, and the KMT.

DPP leaders have their eyes on the presidency. They would rather support Tsai than Su. But as long as the DPP avoids cross-Strait policy, surging waters will separate it from its destination. It will not be able to pass. The party chairmanship election has revealed the candidates' political views. The candidates agree about "Stopping Su." But on cross-Strait policy they are at loggerheads. Deep Greens such as Trong Chai, Su Huan-chih, Wu Rong-i embrace hardline Taiwan independence. Su Tseng-chang maintains a deliberately ambiguous position. Only Hsu Hsin-liang has confronted the cross-Strait situation. Can such a DPP arrive at a consensus on cross-Strait policy?

This is the key that will determine whether the DPP will once again govern. "Stopping Su" may do nothing to "Support Tsai."
   
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2012.05.14
社論－卡蘇打蘇圍毆 未必就能拱蔡
本報訊

    　民進黨人士確實是會鬥、敢鬥，該黨這次的黨主席選舉，就如蘇貞昌自己所形容的，這是一場從「卡蘇」到「打蘇」、甚至是圍毆的選舉；最後，不論是否當選，蘇貞昌擔任黨主席進而角逐總統的正當性已經被嚴重摧毀，而這正是黨內反蘇人士最主要的戰略目的。

    　以蘇貞昌的聲望及實力，黨內反蘇勢力深知拉不下他，但是他們卻成功的達到兩個目標：第一、曝露蘇貞昌志在二○一六大位的企圖心，第二、「志在選總統的人，不適合擔任黨主席」，經過幾次辯論，成為黨的共識；因此，未來蘇貞昌一當選，他任何人事安排、組織調整甚至一言一行，都將受到高度檢視，形同是剛當選，就被戴上緊箍咒。

    　過去的民進黨，從未要求競選黨主席人士立下切結書、宣誓不角逐總統大位，這次為何史無前例為蘇貞昌立下超高門檻？這當然和整體大勢有關，蘇貞昌個人行事風格也因此成為選舉中的焦點。

    　台灣當前政治局勢異常詭異，馬英九第二任尚未就職，民意支持度已經重挫；更關鍵的是，國民黨內誰有能力接班仍然混沌不明，副總統當選人吳敦義蓄勢待發，立法院長王金平掌握有利位置，新北市長朱立倫默默蟄伏。國民黨面臨重新洗牌的時刻，深諳政治大勢的民進黨人士都了解，在此空虛時刻，正是民進黨重返大位的最好機會。

    　同樣是總統敗選後的黨主席，蔡英文四年前是眾星拱月，蘇貞昌此次卻是群起攻之；蔡英文當時是為了民進黨這個大我犧牲小我，蘇貞昌則被打成是柿子挑軟吃的投機分子。正因為在民進黨群雄心中，現在正是天下大亂、形勢大好的時機，由不得蘇貞昌撿便宜。

    　民進黨為何如此防蘇，當然和蘇的個人風格有關。蔡同榮批蘇，二○一○年五都選舉時不管黨的體制，自行提名參選北市；二○○五年縣市長敗選辭去黨主席，是先向媒體請辭才向中常會辭職；許信良不但貶抑蘇沒擔當、沒能力，更露骨的說，蘇不近人情，比較適任檢察官、法官，不適合領導有情有義有革命情誼的民進黨。這些批評意在言外的是：如果蘇贏得大位，是個不會共享天下的人；相對的，和這些老將比起來，蔡英文的政治年資雖然要少個零，但是她擅長合縱連橫，懂得分配權力，當然是民進黨大將比較屬意的合作對象。

    　當然，綠營人士慢慢學到的一件事是，「投資民進黨」確實是一門好生意。二○○八年扁家弊案爆發，民進黨情勢極度低迷，但最慘的狀況下，還是拿到四成二選票，接下來幾次補選，綠營支持者不離不棄，狂風暴雨也擋不住他們的投票意願；而二○一二總統大選，雖以六個百分點敗選，但只要來回三個百分點，今日的總統就是民進黨了！

    　因此，既生蘇、何生蔡，投資民進黨如果看漲，大家不一定要押蘇貞昌，這是蘇貞昌自己要面對的問題；但是，押寶蔡英文就沒問題了嗎？這才是民進黨真正要面對的問題。

    　蔡英文和蘇貞昌雖然是競爭者，關係緊張，但除了領導風格外，二人有其同質性，許信良批評蘇貞昌從未提出有意義的兩岸政策，和大陸交流的談話是一句空話，解讀美國對台政策是「隨便講講」。某種程度而言，這些批評也都適用於蔡英文，她談起兩岸政策，何嘗不像在打啞謎；她對美國政策更是嚴重誤讀，選戰後期才會出現如民進黨人士所形容的，他們是遭到美國、中國、國民黨三方夾殺。

    　民進黨諸將的盤算顯然是，大位當前，擁蘇不如擁蔡。但問題在於，只要民進黨仍然迴避兩岸政策，最後一哩的差距就還是滔滔大河、跨不過去。經過這次黨主席選舉，從諸位候選人政見可以看出，他們除了在「卡蘇」一事有志一同，在兩岸政策卻是南轅北轍，蔡同榮、蘇煥智、吳榮義都擁抱極獨、深綠，蘇貞昌保持模糊，只有許信良正視兩岸現狀；這樣的民進黨，未來有可能在兩岸政策上尋得共識嗎？

    　這才是民進黨能否執政的關鍵問題，「卡蘇」之後未必就能「拱蔡」！