His Last Hurrah: Su Tseng-chang Must Transform the DPP

His Last Hurrah: Su Tseng-chang Must Transform the DPP
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 28, 2012

Summary: Su Tseng-chang was, as predicted, the standout during the Democratic Progressive Party party chairmanship election. He won over half of the votes. He gained the lead and held it with little difficulty. But a strange thing is happening inside and outside the party. Will Su Tseng-chang be able to fulfill his role as chairman of the party? This question bears on his personal political future. It bears on the transformation of the DPP. It even bears on the political situation on Taiwan.

Full Text below:

Su Tseng-chang was, as predicted, the standout during the Democratic Progressive Party party chairmanship election. He won over half of the votes. He gained the lead and held it with little difficulty. But a strange thing is happening inside and outside the party. Will Su Tseng-chang be able to fulfill his role as chairman of the party? This question bears on his personal political future. It bears on the transformation of the DPP. It even bears on the political situation on Taiwan.

Five candidates took part in the recent party chairmanship election. Su Tseng-chang's resume was impressive and his support was solid. Given his lead over the other four candidates, he should have been a shoo-in. Instead, Su Tseng-chang found himself besieged by the other four candidates. The fog of war obscured the larger picture. Objections to Su Tseng-chang's political style, along with long-simmering factional grievances within the DPP, conspired against him. His rivalry with Tsai Ing-wen turned the party chairmanship election into a war against Su. In response, the Su camp resolved to win over half the votes, to prove just how much support he enjoyed within the party.

The other four candidates leveld two major criticisms against Su Tseng-chang. They said he was narrow-minded, not a team player, and lacked the ability to formulate any groundbreaking policy measures. Their criticisms became the theme of the campaign. Su assumes the chairmanship of the party this Wednesday. All eyes will be on him. Political opponents and allies alike will taking the measure of the man. They will be asking themselves whether Su Tseng-chang can silence his critics. Only then will they decide what to do next. His allies will be wondering whether to double down on their bets. Su Tseng-chang has high ambitions. His performance over the next two years will be critical.

Su Tseng-chang has long been domineering in his manner. Fellow party members have criticized him for this. This is his biggest stumbling block as the attempts his move to the next level. During the party chairmanship election debates, the other candidates blasted Su Tseng-chang's unilateral decision to run for Taipei mayor. They blasted him for resigning the party chairmanship before notifying the Central Standing Committee. The DPP has a long tradition of consensus. The nomination committee is highly respected. It accomodates members of various factions. Su Tseng-chang had no right to act on his own. Hopefully Su Tseng-chang will learn from his mistake. He should emulate Abraham Lincoln's "Team of Rivals." He should recruit supporters of perennial rivals Tsai Ing-wen and Frank Hsieh. Over time he may change peoples impression of him.

Other problems may be more difficult to resolve. How can Su Tseng-chang unify the party? What concrete policies can he champion to tranform the DPP into a responsible opposition party? During the debates Su Tseng-chang noted that support for President Ma Ying-jeou during his first term was weak. So why was Ma reelected, Su asked. Nearly 60% of the public believes Taiwan should be sovereign and independent, Su said. So why is the DPP unable to win more than half the votes? The key reason is that during its four years in the opposition. the DPP did nothing bu protest and object. It never offered any feasible policy alternatives. Voters on Taiwan are smart. They will not support a political party that says no just for the sake of saying no.

Consider the many recent policy debates. The Ma administration was bruised and battered by controversies over Clenbuterol treated beef imports, gasoline and and electricity price hikes, and capital gains tax proposals. The DPP smelled blood. Drunk with schadenfreude, it jumped on the protest bandwagon. But how will the DPP deal with these problems if it is in power? How will it handle Clenbuterol treated beef imports? How will it handle trade agreements with Washington? Can it really get away with cozying up to Washington whenever it is in power, then lashing out at it whenever it is out? Similarly, the DPP opposes nuclear power, even as it opposes electricity price hikes. It prefers to take the taxpayers' money and subsidize major users of electricity. If the DPP returns to power it would saddle our children and grandchildren with debt. For a party such as this to talk about "generational justice" is a joke.

To become a responsible opposition party is no easy task. The KMT waffled repeatedly over whether and how to impose a capital gains tax. The market complained, loudly. The Democratic Progressive Party recently met to discuss the capital gains tax as well. This too led to factional infighting. The party could not reach an agreement. Frankly, such a policy debate within the DPP is a good thing. Nothing under the sun is supposed to come easy. An opposition party that knows only how to say no, can never become the ruling party. The DPP must first talk turkey. Only then can it order convince voters it is ready to return to power.

This is a problem the DPP must face. It is one of Chairman Su's key challenges. Fortunately Su Tseng-chang won an absolute majority during the party chairmanship election. Even second place Su Huan-chih was not a representative of Deep Green forces. Together these two relative moderates accounted for 70% of the vote. Clearly pragmatists still have the upper hand, These comparatively rational party members will become Su Tseng-chang backers as he adopts a more centrist path.

Politicians always say "This is my last hurrah." But the 65-year-old Su Tseng-chang really is running out of time. In the two years to come, he must win over the many factions within the party. He must transform the DPP into an opposition party the people can trust. Achieving either of these goals is hard enough. Achieving both of is harder still. They are in many ways mutually contradictory. This is a tough challenge for Su Tseng-chang, who has no room for error. This truly is his last hurrah.

迎接最後一戰 蘇貞昌得讓民進黨轉型
2012-05-28中國時報

一如預期，蘇貞昌不但在民進黨黨主席選舉一役脫穎而出，而且贏得過半選票，讓他順利取得領導優勢。但是，在黨內外情勢詭譎的此刻，蘇貞昌能不能扮演好黨主席的角色，關乎他個人的政治前途，也關乎民進黨的轉型，甚而可能左右台灣的政治局勢。

在此次五人參賽的黨主席選舉之中，蘇貞昌具有傲人的資歷及實力，和其他四位候選人實力懸殊，勝選應該如同是探囊取物，但是蘇貞昌卻因遭受其他四人圍攻，而讓戰局顯得混亂；其間有蘇貞昌個人作風問題，民進黨長年派系恩怨，再夾雜蘇貞昌、蔡英文之爭，黨主席選舉變成「反蘇」大戰；因此，蘇陣營一開始的目標就是要拿下過半選票，以實力來證明自己在黨內的人望。

雖然如此，在競選過程中四位候選人對蘇貞昌的兩大質疑，分別是心胸狹窄、無法群策群力，及政策能力空泛缺乏開創性，則成為話題。他本周三就任黨主席後，必然是十目所視，無論是政敵還是盟友，都會隨時秤他的斤兩，看蘇貞昌能不能克服這些質疑，再來決定後續要戰要和，盟友也會決定是否值得後續投資。可以說，對志在大位的蘇貞昌而言，這一任兩年的表現，事關重大。

表面上看來，蘇貞昌向來有點霸氣的作風，備受黨內訾議，是他更上一層樓的最大阻力。確實，黨主席政見發表會時，其他候選人攻擊蘇貞昌自行決定參選台北市、及未向中常會請辭就宣布辭去黨主席，就是著眼於此；只是，民進黨向來有合議制的傳統，最受重視的選舉提名小組，往往容納各派系成員，蘇貞昌事實上不可能獨斷獨行；當然，蘇貞昌如果能更進一步、從這次選舉學到教訓，效法美國總統林肯組成「政敵團隊」，廣納素來不和的蔡英文、謝長廷人馬，長期還是有機會讓大家對其印象改觀的。

比較困難的是，蘇貞昌如何整合黨內眾意，提出具體政策，成為負責任的反對黨。就如蘇貞昌自己在政見發表會所說，馬英九總統第一任時支持度不高，為何還是連任？支持台灣主權獨立的民意曾高達六成，民進黨為何就是無法拿下過半選票？關鍵原因在於，在野這四年多，民進黨除了抗爭、反對外，從未提出可行的政策方案，精明的台灣選民，當然不會支持一個「為反對而反對」的政黨。

就以近日的諸多政策爭議為例，受困於瘦肉精開放、油電漲價、課徵證所稅等議題，馬政府焦頭爛額；民進黨見獵心喜，加入抗爭陣營，但如果換成民進黨執政，他們如何處理開放瘦肉精及與美簽訂貿易協議的兩難問題，不能說執政時親美，在野就變成反美；同樣的，民進黨既不要核電，卻不同意電價調漲，寧願拿納稅人的錢去補貼用電大戶，這樣的民進黨如果執政，怎麼可能不債留子孫！該黨談世代正義，豈非笑話一則！

確實，要成為負責任的在野黨，絕非易事，國民黨為了是否課徵證所稅、要怎麼課，一再游疑不定，市場怨聲載道；同樣的，民進黨黨團會議日前討論證所稅時，一樣引爆兩派內訌，黨版證所稅難產；坦白說，這樣的政策爭議對民進黨而言，卻是好事一椿，因為，天下沒有那麼便宜的事，只靠反對就能成為執政黨的，民進黨一定要經過政策討論整合的過程，才能說服選民，同意他們重返執政。

這是民進黨必須面對的難題，也是蘇貞昌擔任主席後的重要挑戰。幸運的是，這次黨主席選舉，不但蘇貞昌拿下過半選票，連第二名的蘇煥智，也不是黨內深綠陣營，立場比較溫和的大蘇小蘇加起來，囊括七成選票，可見民進黨內的務實派黨員仍占上風，這些相對理性的聲音，將是蘇貞昌走中間路線的最大後盾。

政治人物永遠會說這是最後一戰，但是對已經六十五歲的蘇貞昌而言，他真的有時間的壓力，這兩年不但要能讓黨內各派系心服口服，更要讓民進黨成為令人可以信任的反對黨，要達到這兩個目標的任何一項，都已是高難度，更何況，兩項目標之間經常是矛盾的；這是嚴苛的挑戰，但是蘇貞昌沒有犯錯的空間，因為這已是他最後的一次機會！