A Crooked Triangle: Chen Shui-bian, Su Tseng-chang, Tsai Ing-wen

A Crooked Triangle: Chen Shui-bian, Su Tseng-chang, Tsai Ing-wen
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 28, 2013

Summary: A power struggle and policy struggle took place recently within the DPP, during its All Peoples Conference. What direction the party takes will depend in large part on the triangular relationship between Chen Shui-bian, Su Tseng-chang, and Tsai Ing-wen. As recent events have shown, this changeable scalene triangle might appropriately be termed a "crooked triangle."

Full Text below:

A power struggle and policy struggle took place recently within the DPP, during its All Peoples Conference. What direction the party takes will depend in large part on the triangular relationship between Chen Shui-bian, Su Tseng-chang, and Tsai Ing-wen. As recent events have shown, this changeable scalene triangle might appropriately be termed a "crooked triangle."

Last Saturday the DPP held its All Peoples Conference. Yet again, Tsai Ing-wen left early. She left a parting shot. Addressing Su Tseng-chang, she said "I am leaving early. This way the current chairman will feel less constrained." Addressing Chen Shui-bian, she said "I hope he (Chen Shui-bian) will make more of an effort, and allow the community to accept him, and sympathize with him."

Her tone suggested someone of higher status addressing someone of lower status, of someone more powerful addressing someone less powerful. Yet again, Tsai Ing-wen left early. This means "Su Tseng-chang was ill at ease." It also means Tsai Ing-wen is under no duty to endorse Su Tseng-chang. Tsai Ing-wen urged Chen Shui-bian to "make more of an effort." She said "the DPP's basic values and judgments regarding right and wrong must not be obscured." She was solemnly warning party members who support Chen Shui-bian that enough is enough, and to quit while they are ahead.

Tsai Ing-wen can be considered the biggest winner of the All Peoples Conference. One. So-called "party member balloting" was Su Tseng-chang's "political accomplishment." Tsai Ing-wen championed opinion polls that poll the entire population. In the end, 221 votes trumped 66 votes, and upheld opinion polls that poll the entire population. Two. Regarding "restoring Chen Shui-bian's party membership" Su Tseng-chang originally said he would respect the All Peoples Conference "public verdict." Later he changed his tune. He said "Chen must personally request restoration of party membership," and shelved the issue for later. This provoked Tsai Ing-wen's later statement, "The DPP's basic values and judgments about right and wrong must not be obscured." The shelving of this issue also reflected Tsai Ing-wen's original intent. Three. The "Resolution on Human Rights in the Taiwan Strait" was spearheaded by Tsai Ing-wen forces. This invokes the name of "human rights" in exchanges with Mainland China. It was passed on to the Central Executive Committee. But it reveals the Tsai faction's ambition to set cross-Strait policy.

During the recent All Peoples Conference Chen Shui-bian elevated his criminal prosecution from a matter of "inmate treatment" to what Annette Lu referred to as the "regrouping of political forces." Chen now demands "political vindication," and not merely "medical parole."

As matters stand, the All Peoples Conference will not grant Ah-Bian "political vindication." Even the proposal that "Chen must personally request restoration of party membership" remains controversial. Ah-Bian did not resign from the party. His party membership was revoked. Chen Shui-bian says he does not want to force the All Peoples Conference to vote on whether to restore his party membership. He says it has already indicated its goodwill, and that he is backing off. He said that if he personally requests restoration of party membership, touching off a firestorm, he will be subject to insults by anti-Chen elements, and the situation will worsen. Given this trend, Tsai Ing-wen would be Chen Shui-bian supporters number one target. This is immediately evident from Ah-Bian supporters' recent violent attacks against Tsai Ing-wen.

Tsai has attempted to reject Ah-Bian and defend against attacks by Ah-Bian from the very beginning. This is clear for all to see, But she also hopped on the party's "humane treatment" and "political persecution" bandwagons. She did not expect the Ah-Bian forces to be so insatiable. They raised the ante. They are now demanding "political rehabilitation" and the "regrouping of political forces." This forced Tsai Ing-wen to slam on the brakes. Chen Chih-chung asked, "Shouldn't we be asking Tsai Ing-wen to make more of an effort, and run for president once more in 2016?" But who does not know that Chen Shui-bian's demands for "political vindication" and a "regrouping of political forces" must be kept under the radar, assuming Tsai Ing-wen wishes to make a run for the presidency in 2016.

Within both the party and the community, Su Tseng-chang enjoys less support than Tsai Ing-wen. Su Tseng-chang's strategy is to pander to Taiwan independence elements, most of whom are Ah-Bian supporters. But opinion polls that poll the entire population renders this approach useless in the party's presidential primaries. Therefore, Su Tseng-chang has been forced to change tactics. Instead of attempting to prevail over Tsai during the the party primaries, he must now throw obstacles in the way of Tsai Ing-wen's policy path and election campaign. He must also attempt to make life difficult for Tsai Ing-wen in the event she is actually elected. Given Su Tseng-chang's current plight, assuming he is petty and narrow-minded, he may choose to position himself as a champion of DPP fundamentalism. He may refuse to help Tsai Ing-wen clear away obstacles to her election campaign or her ruling administration. People such as this are irrational and unreasonable. But the DPP has no shortage of them. Therefore if a different Su Tseng-chang emerges, one should not be surprised.

Chen Chih-chung said "Tsai Ing-wen must also make an effort." He sounded the trumpets. Chen Shui-bian's counterattack has begun. If the conflict cannot be resolved, the "restoration of party membership" issue will become even more controversial during next year's All Peoples Conference. The 2016 general election will be even closer. The situation will become even more sinister. Given such developments, Su Tseng-chang will be at a greater disadvantage than ever. He will bear even greater responsibility. Tsai Ing-wen holds the upper hand. For her, suppressing Chen Shui-bian and promoting DPP cross-Strait policy reform is of greater urgency than it is for Su Tseng-chang. Su Tseng-chang is still pandering to Taiwan independence elements in a last-ditch attempt to prevail over Tsai Ing-wen. He knows he is weak, but is unwilling to set the ball up for Tsai Ing-wen. Therefore he is ambivalent about these issues. Su and Tsai might well end up in a lose-lose situation, Of course, this may be precisely what Su Tseng-chang is counting on.

Ah-Bian, Su, and Tsai form a crooked triangle. It is already crooked. The only question is how much more crooked will it get.

歪三角：陳水扁‧蘇貞昌‧蔡英文
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.05.28 02:43 am

經此次全代會，民進黨內部權力路線的鬥爭，相當大的一部分將取決於陳水扁、蘇貞昌與蔡英文的三角關係。事態顯示，這是一個變動不居的不等邊三角形，可稱為歪三角。

上周六民進黨舉行全代會，蔡英文「又」提前退場，且留下兩句話。一句話她對蘇貞昌說：「我早些離場，這樣讓現任主席主持得比較自在一點。」另一句話她對陳水扁說：「希望他（陳水扁）要多作努力，讓社會能接受他、同情他。」

這兩句話的口吻，皆透露出一種上對下、強對弱的口氣。蔡英文「又」提早離場，一方面是「蘇貞昌不自在」，另一方面當然亦在表示蔡英文不是蘇貞昌的背書者；至於蔡英文要陳水扁「多作努力」，並謂「民進黨清廉的基本價值及是非判斷不要被模糊掉」，這更儼然是要黨內的挺扁派適可而止。

蔡英文可謂是此次全代會的最大贏家。一、「黨員投票」是蘇貞昌的「政見」，全民調則是蔡英文的主張；最後全代會以二二一對六十六票的懸殊比數，維持了全民調。二、陳水扁「恢復黨籍案」，蘇貞昌原持尊重全代會「公決」的立場，後來改以「自請返黨」擱延此案；證諸蔡英文事後「是非判斷不能模糊」的表態，此案之擱延自亦符合蔡英文的本意。三、《台海人權決議文》的領銜者皆蔡英文之人馬，此案主張藉「人權」之名義與中國交流，雖移交中執會處理，但已透露出蔡系人馬欲主導兩岸政策之企圖。

經歷此次全代會，陳水扁已將其司法事件，由「受刑人處遇的議題」，升高至「重建政治勢力的議題」（呂秀蓮語）；他要的是「政治平反」，已不只是「保外就醫」。

依目前進度看，此次全代會未對扁作出「政治平反」，而「自請返黨案」亦有爭議（因為，扁不只是「退黨」，而是事實上已「除名」）。但是，陳水扁方面則認為未強求全代會表決「恢復黨籍」已表善意與退讓，而若「自請返黨」又生波折，則必認為遭到反扁者的戲弄羞辱，勢將更不善罷干休。勢若趨此，蔡英文將是「阿扁們」首選的箭靶；這從最近扁系對蔡英文的狂暴攻擊，可見一斑。

蔡一路走來拒扁防扁的「努力」有目共睹，但她也捲入黨內「人道處遇」、「政治迫害」的潮流中；只是未料擁扁勢力得寸進尺，將事態升高到「政治平反」及「重建政治勢力」的高度，這逼得蔡英文不得不踩煞車。陳致中說：「那是不是請蔡英文自己多作努力，再選二○一六？」其實又何嘗不知，必須將陳水扁的喉嚨壓在「政治平反」、「重建政治勢力」的水線以下，正是蔡英文若欲選二○一六所必須之「努力」。

此時的蘇貞昌，無論在黨內及社會上，聲勢均不如蔡英文。蘇貞昌的策略是向獨派（大多也是扁的支持者）靠攏，但「全民調」卻使此計在黨內總統初選上失去作用。因此，蘇貞昌如今的計謀，已不由自主地從「如何在黨內初選中勝過蔡英文」，轉向「如何增加蔡英文出線及當選的難度」，以及「如何使蔡英文即使當選也將面對困境」的方向思考。以蘇貞昌今日境地，倘若其心胸狹窄，他很可能會選擇在歷史上定位做為一個民進黨基本教義的護持者，而拒絕做一個替蔡英文清掃競選障礙或執政障礙的轎夫。這種類型的人雖是一般情理所難理解，但民進黨內最不缺這種人；所以，若多出一個蘇貞昌，也毋庸驚怪。

在陳致中「蔡英文也要努力」的號角聲中，陳水扁的反撲已經發動。事態如果不可開交，「恢復黨籍案」若在明年全代會以更加凌厲的聲勢再度登場亦非意外；彼時已更接近二○一四及二○一六選舉，情勢將更加險惡。在這樣的情境中，蘇貞昌愈是處於劣勢，其實愈應負起愈大的責任。因為，居於上風的蔡英文，對壓制陳水扁及引導兩岸政策轉型二事上皆有大於蘇貞昌的迫切性；但蘇貞昌一方面是仍欲以拉攏獨派與蔡英文作最後一搏，另一方面則明知自己勢弱而不願「作球」給蔡英文，所以對二事極盡曖昧。倘係如此，蘇蔡二人即不無可能落得兩敗俱傷的下場；或者，其實這也正是蘇貞昌打的算盤。

扁蘇蔡這個歪三角，已經歪了，唯不知將歪到何