Three Major Reported Trends

Three Major Reported Trends
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
October 22, 2013

Summary: Changes on the Mainland and changes in Sino-US relations have taken place. The Mainland's Taiwan policy also shows signs of change. Xi Jinping spoke during the "Siew Xi Meeting." He said "The cross-Strait political divide cannot be passed down endlessly from generation to generation." After meeting with United States Secretary of State John Kerry, Wang Yi said the "Taiwan issue remains within the realm of control." These two statements indicate unprecedented Mainland confidence regarding cross-Strait relations. We on Taiwan must think carefully. When the Mainland's comprehensive national strength can no longer be denied, when the balance of power in US-China relations changes, how will we on Taiwan cope?

Full text below:

Most of the daily news is trivial. Most people are not interested in keeping up with it. They skim it and forget what they just read. But some developments that fail to attract public attention may have fatal consequences. They are like continuously dripping water that over time even cuts through stone. By the time people become aware of it, it is often too late to do anything about it.

Three recent reported trends are like this. They appear to be nearly irreversible. They may well determine Taiwan's fate. The public should pay attention and attempt to understand.

Since World War II, the US led nations in the first island chain of East Asia have remained in a standoff with the PRC and the former USSR. The ROC, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines have maintained an essentially stable strategic cooperative relationship. But in recent years the rise of Mainland China has led to structural changes. U.S. dominance in Asia has gradually diminished. In late 2011, while visiting Hawaii, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivered a keynote speech entitled, "The 21st Century will be America's Pacific Century." She declared that the United States would create a "Trans-Pacific System" in the Asian Pacific region, and continue to play a central role. Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta added that the United States has decided to strengthen its military presence in the Asian Pacific region, in order to prevent growing Mainland China military power from affecting U.S. vital interests in the region. The United States began promoting its "Return to Asia" policy. During his second term Obama renamed this the " Asian Rebalancing Policy."

The U.S. national debt crisis continues to worsen. The US federal government farcically shut down for 16 days. Next February 7, the total U.S. debt will be close to 18 trillion dollars. The US federal government will face yet another shutdown. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel could not resist complaining. The prolonged U.S. debt crisis has undermined Asian-Pacific nations' confidence in the U.S. Obama even stayed away from the APEC Leadership Conference in Indonesia. Mainland Chinese President Xi Jinping dominated.

Leaders in Beijing are using hard and soft diplomacy, as well as a policy of "friendship, security, and prosperity" to counter the U.S. Return to Asia strategy. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang took advantage of separate visits to Indonesia, Vietnam, and other countries. In particular, they are using the construction of the Sino-Vietnamese Railroad to establish a consensus and kickstart Sino-Vietnamese maritime, onshore, and financial cooperation. Li Keqiang's success prompted Vietnam to adopt a more balanced posture between the two powers

South Korea recently declared publicly that it would not join the U.S. missile defense system. President Park Geun-hye proposed a new strategic "Eurasian Program." He hopes to strengthen cooperation between China and Russia and other neighboring countries. The Indian Defense Ministry has publicly rejected the establishment of U.S. military bases in India. At the 2013 National Day ceremonies, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong delivered his address in Chinese for the very first time. This reflected Singapore's desire to strike a balance between the United States and Mainland China. Vietnam, Korea, India, and Singapore have made their choices. These choices will have a significant impact on strategic competition in Sino-US relations.

The second major trend involves the Third Plenary Session of the CCP Central Committee. It will trumpet Mainland China's economic and social reforms. The outcome of the session will determine the fate of the Chinese mainland for the next 10 years. It will undoubtedly affect the future of Taiwan. According to CCP protocol, the Third Plenary Session of the CCP Central Committee is held one year after the new leadership takes over. The session often announces major changes in the party's path. Mainland China has already taken on a very different look under the leadership of Xi and Li than it did under the leadership of Hu and Wen. The social atmosphere has also changed. Xi and Li have launched major anti -corruption campaigns. They have returned to the traditional values of the Chinese Communist Party. They have demonstrated self-confidence and strength toward the outside world. They have already won considerable public support. They have created an atmosphere of unity. They have create conditions favorable to the successful convening of the Third Plenary Session and the smooth passage of their proposals.

The Third Plenary Sesson cannot of course merely go through the motions. To be successful, Xi and Li must pass their plans for reform. As we all know, the CCP must undergo reform. Only reform can ensure Mainland China's sustained economic and social development. But reforms will affect vested interests. They will inevitably lead to revolt. Xi and Li must obtain sufficient public support. Only then can they resist vested interests.

Xi and Li have adopted an "economics turns right, politics turns left" strategy. The Third Plenary Session reform plans will focus on economics. We hope they will promote a market economy, financial liberalization, and internationalization. We hope they will foster private enterprise and micro-enterprises, promote tax reform, and reduce taxes. Political reform will be limited to administrative reforms, such as reduced government functions. The courts will no longer be monopolized by local leaders. Both economic and administrative reforms must overcome enormous political obstacles. Xi and Li have built up a considerable head of steam. Will they finally be able to implement their reforms? That remains hard to say. But Mainland China will surely undergo change.

The third major trend pertains to cross-Strait relations. Changes on the Mainland and changes in Sino-US relations have taken place. The Mainland's Taiwan policy also shows signs of change. Xi Jinping spoke during the "Siew Xi Meeting." He said "The cross-Strait political divide cannot be passed down endlessly from generation to generation." After meeting with United States Secretary of State John Kerry, Wang Yi said the "Taiwan issue remains within the realm of control." These two statements indicate unprecedented Mainland confidence regarding cross-Strait relations. We on Taiwan must think carefully. When the Mainland's comprehensive national strength can no longer be denied, when the balance of power in US-China relations changes, how will we on Taiwan cope?

社論－從最近三大趨勢性新聞談起
稍後再讀
中國時報 本報訊 2013年10月22日 04:09

日常新聞非常瑣碎，一般人不太有興趣盯著進度每天閱讀，或著太過瑣碎，讀過就忘。但非常致命的是，有些不能吸引大眾眼球的日常性新聞，卻如同穿石水滴，一旦讓人察覺，往往已達到不可逆程度，屆時再「痛心疾首」已於事無補。

最近有3個趨勢性新聞就具有此一特質，而且似乎已接近不可逆階段，將對台灣的命運產生顛覆性影響，國人必須重視並了解。

自二戰結束後，美國領導東亞第一島鏈國家與中國大陸、蘇聯對峙，台灣與美國、日本、南韓、菲律賓始終維持大致穩定的戰略合作關係。但近年來，亞太形勢隨著中國的崛起，已經出現結構性變化，美國在亞太主導地位逐漸鬆動。美國國務卿希拉蕊於2011年底，在夏威夷以「21世紀將是美國的太平洋世紀」為題發表專題演講，宣示美國將在亞太地區建立「跨太平洋體系」，繼續扮演核心角色。隨後前國防部長潘尼塔亦強調，美國決定持續增強在亞太的軍事能量，以避免中國軍力的增長影響到美國在亞太地區的關鍵利益。美國開始推動「重返亞洲政策」，歐巴馬第2任期修正為「亞洲再平衡政策」。

隨著美國國債問題持續惡化，甚至演出聯邦政府局部關閉16天鬧劇，而且明年2月7日前，美國總債務將逼近18兆美元，聯邦政府又要面臨關閉的凌遲，國防部長海格爾忍不住抱怨，美債危機延伸，已重創亞太國家對美國信心。歐巴馬甚至放棄出席在印尼舉行的APEC年會領袖會議，讓中國國家主席習近平獨領風騷。

北京領導人卻以剛柔並濟的外交手腕和「睦鄰、安鄰、富鄰」的政策宣示，破解美國重返亞洲戰略。習近平與李克強趁勢分別訪問了印尼、越南等國家，尤其促成中越鐵公路建設共識，啟動中越雙邊海上、陸上與金融領域合作。李克強成功促使越南，在中美兩強間採取更平衡的政策。

南韓日前公開表示，不加入美國的飛彈防禦系統，朴槿惠總統同時提出「歐亞計畫」新戰略構想，希望與中國及俄羅斯加強鄰國合作關係。印度國防部亦公開拒絕美國在印度設立軍事基地，新加坡總理李顯龍在2013年國慶時，首度用中文講演，也反映出其在美中之間，運用平衡策略的用心與巧思。越南、韓國、印度、新加坡相繼做出選擇，將對中美戰略競爭關係產生重大影響。

第2件重大趨勢性新聞事件，是中共11月即將召開三中全會，將吹起改革號角，推動中國經濟體制與社會的轉型改革。這次會議的成果將決定未來10年中國大陸的命運，無疑亦將牽動台灣的發展。依據中共體制，歷屆三中全會都在新領導班子接任1年後召開，往往出現路線的重大宣示。習李領導下的中國已展現與胡溫時代大為不同的面貌，社會氛圍也有很大改變。習李接班後大力倡廉反腐、回歸中共傳統價值、對外展現自信與強勢作風，已贏得相當程度的民意支持，創造出團結的社會氛圍，為三中全會的順利召開與各項提案的順利通過創造良好條件。

不過，三中全會不能只是行禮如儀，必須通過習李改革大計，才算成功。眾所周知，中共必須改革，唯有改革才能推動大陸經濟與社會的持續發展。但改革牽動既得利益，勢必引起反抗，習李必須獲得足夠的社會支持能量，才能對抗既得利益的反抗。

從習李「經濟向右、政治向左」的施政作為觀察，三中的改革大計將集中在經濟層面，希望更向市場經濟傾斜、金融更自由化與國際化、更加重扶植民企與微型企業、推動稅改減輕民企稅賦等。政治方面則將限制在行政改革，如政府職能縮小、司法脫離地方一把手控制等。但據了解，無論經濟或行政改革，都遭遇很大的政治困難。習李已累積相當的能量推動改革，最後能否完全實現改革仍難預言，但中國肯定會改變。

第3個趨勢是兩岸關係的變動，隨著大陸內部情勢與中美關係的變化，大陸對台政策思維也出現一些改變跡象。習近平在「蕭習會」中說，「兩岸政治分歧不能一代一代傳下去」、王毅在美國會晤國務卿柯瑞後表示「台灣問題在可控範圍內」，這兩句話都流露出中國大陸領導層對兩岸關係前所未有的自信。台灣須審慎思考，當大陸綜合國力已非吳下阿蒙，美中關係平衡出現改變，台灣應如何應對？