Two Green Camp Suns: Winning and Losing Strategies

Two Green Camp Suns: Winning and Losing Strategies
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China)
A Translation
October 14, 2013

Summary: The KMT's prospects in the 2016 general election are grim. The DPP could make a comeback. It could regain power. Su Tseng-chang has called for a no confidence vote. This is an opportunity for the DPP to decide which sun it wants to keep. If the no confidence vote is successfull, and leads to the dissolution of the legislature, Chairman Su will have a major achievement under his belt. Tsai Ing-wen's chances will be diminished. But if Su treats the TISA debate lightly, can he really win the 2016 party nomination?

Full text below:

In 2012, the DPP lost its second consecutive bid for the presidency to the Ma Ying-jeou led KMT. For the past two years, a delicate balance of power has prevailed. This phenomenon is well known, but only tacitly acknowledged. The ruling and opposition parties know about it. So does the public. It is the "two suns phenomenon." Both suns shine in the Green Camp sky. Each attempts to outshine the other. The DPP risks being scorched in the process. In 2016, two years from now, perhaps even as early as next year's party chairmanship election, one of these two suns must defeat the other. One of them must regain political power on behalf of the DPP in a highly promising presidential election.

These two suns, as everyone knows, are Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen. Su Tseng-chang is currenly party chairman. Tsai Ing-wen currenly holds no party or government post. But Tsai Ing-wen has far more real world influence. Logically there ought to be only one sun in the sky. But currently there are two. The sun outside the system shines brighter and hotter than the sun inside the system. This is obviously not normal.

As time goes by, something will surely go wrong.

But the political sky is changing. The two suns scenario is quietly changing. Tsai Ing-wen appears to be the sole remaining sun in the Green Camp sky. Su Tseng-chang appears to be "ball lightning." He appears to be a moon with only reflected light. His rays grow steadily dimmer. They now shine feebly despite his desperate attempts to keep his flame alive through controversy.

Ma Ying-jeou won re-election in 2012. Even before he was reinaugurated, he mishandled a series of natural and man-made calamaties, including U.S. beef imports, gasoline price hikes, electricity rate hikes, capital gains taxes, and other political and public welfare issues. His bungling alienated the public and provoked a storm of criticism. Even the U.S. based CNN referred to President Ma as "This man." The media and pundits are not optimistic that the situation will improve during his term. His poll numbers are even more lackluster.

On the other hand, poll results show that loss of support for Ma Ying-jeou and the KMT does not equal increased support for the DPP. The KMT may be on life support. But a deathly pall hangs over the DPP as well. The DPP may curse and criticize. It may worsen the chaos. But the public does not consider the DPP rational and responsible, in either its words and deeds. Support for the ruling party has declined. But the opposition party has also failed to meet voter expectations. Its support cannot increase. DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang only knows how to lash out at Ma, how to throw obstacles in the way of Tsai, and how to pander to Ah-Bian. He has nothing constructive to offer. Needless to say, the voters are rapidly seeing through his act.

Voters are disappointed in Su. That does not mean they have given up on the DPP as a whole. The past year has been described as a "power vacuum" and a "sterile state." This has enabled Tsai Ing-wen to take the high road. This has enabled her to adopt high-minded positions on cross-Strait policy, ruling vs. opposition party confrontation, and public policy. This has naturally met with the approval of most voters. Over the past year, Tsai Ing-wen has been buttressed by feel-good voter sentiment. She has been energetically visiting academic institutions, university students, and business owners, both at home and abroad. Grassroots reaction has been positive. She has been able to offer timely proposals on the Number Four Nuclear Power Plant, on a proposed National Policy Conference, on 12 year compulsory education, on the ongoing conflict between Ma and Wang, and other major issues. This have differentiated her from Su Tseng-chang, and even forced Su Tseng-chang to follow in her footsteps.

The contrast is dramatic. Just one month ago, Su Tseng-chang convened a seminar on the merits of Chen Shui-bian's eight years in office. Meanwhile, Tsai Ing-wen invited Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe 's economic adviser Koo Tsao-ming to address "The Challenge of Abenomics," and its economic relevance for Taipei, Tokyo, and Beijing. He was the third heavyweight academic Tsai Ing-wen invited to Taiwan. Previous guests include former South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's global affairs adviser [Henry?] Sauermann, and Cao Yuan Zheng, chief economist for the Bank of China.

Tsai Ing-wen stubbornly refuses to recognize the 1992 consensus. But otherwise, she has differentiated herself from Su Tseng-chang. She is the Green Camp "sun" who has done the most homework regarding international relations and economics, the two issues most important to Taiwan and to swing voters. By contrast, Su Tseng-chang promoted the mass recruitment of underworld figures into the party. He used the Taipei Mayor's high approval ratings to block Tsai. He enabled the corrupt former President Chen Shui-bian to rejoin the party. He backed Ker Chien-ming, who is under indictment for exerting undue influence on the criminal justice system. He remains indifferent and silent on legislative reform. He resorts to rrickery to consolidate his position. He thinks only of lashing out at Ma. His attention is focused entirely on the 2016 general election and the party nomination.

Su Tseng-chang is making a show of demanding a no confidence vote. He ran from a debate on TISA. Is Chairman Su playing for keeps? No one knows for sure. But he cannot afford to run away once more. Su Tseng-chang has demanded a no confidence vote. He must remain politically accountable. Whether KMT legislators self-destruct is not the DPP's concern. But if DPP legislators defect come voting time, the party chairman will have to answer to the party as a whole.

The KMT's prospects in the 2016 general election are grim. The DPP could make a comeback. It could regain power. Su Tseng-chang has called for a no confidence vote. This is an opportunity for the DPP to decide which sun it wants to keep. If the no confidence vote is successfull, and leads to the dissolution of the legislature, Chairman Su will have a major achievement under his belt. Tsai Ing-wen's chances will be diminished. But if Su treats the TISA debate lightly, can he really win the 2016 party nomination?

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2013.10.14
社論－綠色兩顆太陽 比路線論輸贏
本報訊

    　民進黨自2012年總統大選第二度遭到馬英九領導的國民黨擊敗後，至今近2年來，始終存在一個微妙的權力生態；不但朝野政壇對此現象心照不宣，整個社會也心知肚明，那就是所謂的「兩顆太陽」高掛在綠色天空，互放光芒比熱力。不待民進黨被烤焦，這兩顆太陽勢須在2年多後也就是2016年前、甚至是更早的明年黨主席改選時，扮演后羿，射落對方，代表民進黨問鼎重奪政權、極有希望的總統大選。

    　這兩顆太陽，大家都知道，一個是黨主席蘇貞昌，另一個是現在沒有黨政職務、也沒有體制上的權力，但實質影響力絕對是有過之而無不及的蔡英文。本來照理在天空中，應該只有1顆太陽，可是現在卻有兩顆太陽，而且是體制外的太陽比體制內的太陽，還要亮、還要熱，這顯然不是正常的現象，時間一拖久，一定會出事。

    　不過，以現在政治天空的變化和表現來看，兩顆太陽的異象已經悄悄地、但也是明顯地出現了位移，綠色天空中似乎只剩下蔡英文這顆光芒不斷增強的太陽，蘇貞昌這顆「電火球」則像1顆借光的月球，光芒越來越弱，只能無力地閃爍著，拚命想製造議題維持熱度。

    　從馬英九在2012年再獲勝選以來，還沒有就職連任，就因為處理一連串天災人禍，包括美牛進口?B油電雙漲、證所稅開徵等政治、民生事件略顯荒腔走板、疏離民意，頻遭批判，連美國CNN都以「這個人」稱馬總統；到現在，媒體、名嘴都不看好亂象會在其任內好轉，各路民調更不見起色。

    　另一方面，從各種民調結果來看，馬英九和國民黨在內政上的失分，並沒有帶來民進黨相對的得分，國民黨固然是一蹶不振，民進黨竟然也是死氣沉沉，只知猛罵狂批，亂上加亂，民意並未看到理性、負責任的言行。在這種執政黨支持度下降，但在野黨卻無法承擔選民希望、聲勢難以上升的失落中，民進黨主席蘇貞昌滿腦子除了打馬、防蔡、拉扁，沒有任何一點建設性主張或前瞻性作為，當然很快會被選民看破手腳。

    　但選民對蘇貞昌失望，並不等於對整個民進黨的放棄，正因如此，被形容為這1年多來「因為權力真空，處於無菌狀態」的蔡英文，對兩岸關係、朝野政局、公共政策，反而可以更超然，當然更能爭取廣大選民的認同。這1年多來，蔡英文挾著選民對她持續保溫的好感，勤訪國內外，與學術單位、大學生、企業老闆、基層民眾積極互動，對核四、國是會議、12年國教、馬王政爭等重大議題、公共政策，也都能適時提出巧妙而與蘇貞昌有所區隔，乃至迫使蘇貞昌不得不跟進的看法。

    　一個鮮明的對比是，1個多月前，蘇貞昌召開了陳水扁執政8年功績研討會，同一時間，蔡英文則邀請日本首相安倍晉三的經濟顧問辜朝明，以「安倍經濟學的挑戰」為題，對台、日、中經濟議題進行對話；這也是繼韓國前總統李明博全球事務顧問索爾曼、中國銀行首席經濟學家曹遠征後，第3位受蔡英文邀請來台對談的重量級學者。

    　這不僅顯示綠營「兩顆太陽」路線中，除了都不承認「九二共識」外，已漸露區隔，蔡英文從國際、經濟這兩大台灣當前最迫切課題發功著力，積極爭取兵家必爭的中間選民；對照蘇貞昌，黑道集體入黨風波、北市長高民調卡蔡、主導迎接貪汙總統阿扁回鍋入黨、對涉嫌司法關說的柯建銘刻意迴護、對健全國會之改革冷漠不言，權謀保位，一心打馬，其目光完全聚焦黨內1張2016大選門票。

    　而今蘇貞昌又大動作倡議倒閣，前有服貿協議辯論落跑紀錄，蘇主席這回玩真玩假，難免啟人疑竇。落跑秀可一不可再，蘇貞昌既然倡議倒閣就該負起政治責任，國民黨立委會不會自我了斷不干民進黨事，但民進黨立委要是跑掉1票，身為黨主席的總該對全黨有個交代罷。

    　2016大選，各界看衰國民黨，民進黨捲土重來，重獲執政在望，這個時候蘇貞昌提出倒閣案，倒是民進黨要留下哪顆太陽的契機，倒閣成功，解散國會，蘇主席大破大立，蔡英文的機會自是日趨渺茫。但如與服貿辯論一樣玩假的，蘇主席還有顏面爭取2016黨內提名？