Eric Chu's Decision: Constraints from Comrades more Binding than from Opponents

Eric Chu's Decision: Constraints from Comrades more Binding than from Opponents
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 24, 2014

Summary: Eric Chu has belatedly announced his candidacy, He has left the impression that he "thinks too much" and "took too long." But the difficulty he encountered in deciding was not the result of timidity. It was the result of too many factors binding him from within the party. His dilemma reflects the differences between the blue and green political parties. For example, Tsai Ing-wen bided her time for over two years before declaring her candidacy for 2016. Yet no one in the DPP has any intention of challenging her. By contrast, members of the KMT have bound their most promising candidate hand and foot. Eric Chu's decision may be belated. But he most assuredly did not arrive at it easily.

Full Text Below:

Eric Chu has wavered for some time between seeking the ROC presidency in 2016 and seeking reelection as New Taipei mayor. He has finally announced his decision. He will remain in New Taipei and run for reelection. He announced his decision yesterday in a low-keyed manner, on facebook. He deliberately avoid election rallies. This shows how difficult his decision was. Under current circumstances, his primary responsibility is to stabilize the situation in the seven in one elections. As the ruling party's political star, he must put his ambitions for 2016 in second place.

The reaction to yesterday's announcement was varied, and illustrated how difficult the decision must have been. DPP spokesman Lin Chun-hsien said that seeking reelection for New Taipei mayor was a "shrewd calculation" on Chu's part. Lin mocked Chu's drawn out decision process as "a flop that continues to play." TSU Secretary-General Lin Chi-chia, who is seeking to integrate the pan green opposition, said that Chu's decision showed his "lack of confidence." Even more interesting was the reaction from the Kuomintang. KMT spokesperson Chen Yi-hsing said the KMT Central Committee will "fully support his campaign." This statement had a very different impact.

The pan green opposition's mockery cannot hide its fear of Eric Chu. The ruling party's statement also leaves one speechless. Chu is the KMT's best candidate for 2016. Yet he took so long deciding whether to seek reelection as New Taipei mayor, observers nearly lost all patience. The media examined all possible scenarios. The reason Chu took so long to decide was obvious. Too many factors remained outside his control. In the end, Chu announced that he would seek re-election. He even added that "If re-elected, I will serve out the entire four years of my term." As we can see, he was forced to consider complex factors inside and outside the party.

Eric Chu has decided not to go straight for the presidency in 2016, but to seek reelection in New Taipei. The key reason was the constraints placed upon him by his own party. These exceeded any challenges posed by forces from the outside. First, there was the year end seven in one elections. The ruling party could lose power in numerous counties and cities all across Taiwan. The situation in central Taiwan is precarious. Recent scandals in Taoyuan and Keelung threaten the party's prospects in northern Taiwan. Under the circumstances, New Taipei must not fall. Eric Chu's re-election would help the blue camp stabilize the situaiton in northern Taiwan. It would also test his skill in transregional campaigning.

Second, Lien Sheng-wen looked like a shoo-in for Taipei mayor. But the successful integration of the opposition geen camp, and Shen Fu-hsiung entering the fray, have left the election up for grabs. Lien Sheng-wen's advantage has faded. Yesterday, Eric Chu announced that he and Lien Sheng-wen will form a "Sheng Li Alliance." He is clearly attempting to give Lien a boost. He is adopting a "Twin Taipei Cities" strategy to help the blue camp rally support in the nation's capital.

Third, there is the internal situation in New Taipei City. Blue camp city councilors are highly dependent on a coattails effect. If Eric Chu passes the torch to Hou Yu-yi, that may not work. After all, a veteran leading the way is more certain. The blue camp is worried that if Chu withdraws from the New Taipei mayoral race, the green camp might offer up former County Chief Su Tseng-chang as their candidate. That might lead to an upset in once solid New Taipei. That eventually had to be forestalled.

Consider Eric Chu's perspective. He could go straight to a bid for the presidency in 2016 if he wanted to. Given his high standing in the polls and Tsai Ing-wen as his opponent, he stands a good chance of winning. But suppose he throws his hat the New Taipei mayoral election? If re-elected he would have to declare his candidacy for the presidential race within six months. If he did that, New Taipei voters might be less than forgiving. That is why he specifically stated yesterday, "I would serve out my full term." The purpose of that was to allay voter concerns. Will this force him to miss out on the 2016 election? That is hard to say. Is Eric Chu really the kind of person the DPP painted him? Is he really someone "adept at political calculation?" Would such a person have mired himself in such a situation, where he can neither advance nor retreat?

Nor can one ignore the attitude of the ruling party leadership and President Ma's succession plans for 2016. Relations between Ma and Chu are rumored to be "complicated." President Ma prefers another candidate. Ma Ying-jeou forced Eric Chu to run in New Taipei. The two have ostensibly resolved their differences. But communications remain iffy. In any case, one can be sure that at this moment President Ma does want Chu to help him stabilize the political situation. Chu could boldly step outside the lines laid out for him. He could achieve glowing results. But when 2016 rolls around, he might not become President Ma's successor.

Eric Chu has belatedly announced his candidacy, He has left the impression that he "thinks too much" and "took too long." But the difficulty he encountered in deciding was not the result of timidity. It was the result of too many factors binding him from within the party. His dilemma reflects the differences between the blue and green political parties. For example, Tsai Ing-wen bided her time for over two years before declaring her candidacy for 2016. Yet no one in the DPP has any intention of challenging her. By contrast, members of the KMT have bound their most promising candidate hand and foot. Eric Chu's decision may be belated. But he most assuredly did not arrive at it easily.

朱立倫的抉擇：同志的羈絆大於對手
【聯合報╱社論】
2014.06.25 01:35 am

在「直取二○一六」與「爭取連任」之間游移多時，朱立倫終於宣布決定留在新北市參選。朱立倫昨天選擇在臉書上低調公開他的決定，刻意避開造勢，其實已充分說明他的抉擇之難：以目前的政治形勢，他背負著七合一選舉「鞏固政局」為先的責任，作為執政黨僅有的政治明星，只能把二○一六的想望放在其次。

昨天消息公布後，各方的反應七零八落，也恰恰反映出此事之不易咀嚼。民進黨發言人林俊憲說，參選新北是朱立倫「精明的算計」，又譏他「歹戲拖棚」；正在爭取在野整合的台聯祕書長林志嘉則說，朱立倫的選擇，顯示他「缺乏自信」。更有趣的是國民黨的反應，發言人陳以信稱黨中央將「全力輔選」，也創造了另類的效果。

在野陣營的譏嘲，無法掩飾他們對朱立倫的忌憚；而執政黨的聲明，則暴露出一種令人無語的八股。作為國民黨二○一六年呼聲最高的明星，朱立倫在是否角逐新北市長一事猶豫了那麼久，讓外界揣摩到快要失去耐性，讓媒體把所有可能情節全都編完，原因沒有別的：無法操之於他的因素太多。到最後，朱立倫宣布爭取連任，還要加一句「若連任會做滿四年」；可見，黨內黨外的複雜因素，他皆需面面俱到地考量。

朱立倫不直取二○一六而選擇先在新北參選，主要關鍵是，黨內對他的羈絆要遠大於黨外的挑戰形勢。第一，年底的七合一選舉，執政黨在全台不少縣市面臨失守危機，中台灣情勢岌岌可危，而新近發生的桃園、基隆等地的弊案更威脅北台灣選情。在這種情況下，新北市有絕對必須守住的需求，朱立倫競選連任，除可幫藍軍穩住北台灣的陣腳，同時也可測試他跨地域的輔選功力。

第二，連勝文在台北市的情勢原本看好，但在野陣營整合成功後，沈富雄又加入戰局，使選情變得混沌，連勝文的優勢似有消褪的跡象。昨天，朱立倫宣布將和連勝文合組「勝立聯盟」，顯然是肩負著「拉抬」的任務，將運用「雙北」共同建設的戰略，幫助藍軍在首都造勢搶票。

第三，就新北市內部的情勢而言，藍軍地方議員的選舉一直相當倚賴「母雞帶小雞」的造勢模式；如果朱立倫交棒給侯友宜，未必不能勝任此一任務，但畢竟不如「老將帶路」來得穩妥。尤其，藍營一直擔心朱立倫退選新北後，綠營可能改由蘇貞昌以老縣長之姿突襲，屆時，可能造成新北市十拿九穩的局面一夕風雲變色；這項變數，亦是不能不防。

就朱立倫個人而言，如果能夠直接參加二○一六總統大選，以目前的民調看，和蔡英文的對決，他有不小的勝算。然而，一旦他參加新北市長選舉，若當選連任後不到半年，就要宣布參選總統；果真如此，未必能獲新北市民的諒解。也因此，他昨天特別聲明「會做滿任期」，目的即在化解選民疑慮。如此一來，是不是會迫使他錯過二○一六的大選，則是目前難以解答之謎。就這點看，若朱立倫真是如民進黨形容的「精於算計」之人，他會把自己放到這樣不易進退的處境上嗎？

不能忽略的，還有執政黨高層對朱立倫的態度，以及馬總統對二○一六大選接班的規劃。政壇對馬朱關係傳說紛紜，從馬總統「另有屬意人選」，到馬英九「強壓朱立倫」在新北，乃至兩人已「化解心結」云云，顯示溝通並非全然順暢。無論如何，可以確定的是，馬總統此刻確實迫切需要朱立倫披掛上陣幫他穩住政局；而朱立倫若能在此役大步跨出地方格局，取得彪炳戰功，屆時二○一六馬總統的接班之戰，恐怕也就非他莫屬了。

朱立倫遲遲才宣布參選，確實留給外界「想太多」、也「想太久」的印象。但他如此取捨難決，並非出於對挑戰大位的畏怯，而是黨內牽絆的因素太多。這種情況，其實反映了藍綠政黨的不同文化與性格。且看，蔡英文兩年多來一直好整以暇地在那裡準備再戰二○一六，民進黨內無人意圖與她爭鋒；反觀國民黨，一個最有希望的人選浮現，卻是上上下下皆想把他卡在原地。朱立倫的抉擇是來遲了，但確也來得很不容易。