Taipei: Change in Blue vs. Green Voter Base?

Taipei: Change in Blue vs. Green Voter Base?
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 16, 2014

Summary: The ruling and opposition camp candidates have positioned themselves for the Taipei mayoral campaign. Voter support appears to have shifted. But frankly any prediction is premature. How will Lien Sheng-wen and Wen-Je Ko prove themselves to Taipei residents? How capable and how trustworthy are they? This is probably the only real factor capable of changing voter support.

Full Text Below:

NTU doctor Wen-Je Ko, MD, will represent the green camp in the Taipei mayoral race. We already know who the blue and green camp candidates will be in the mayoral election for the nation's capital. Some media polls show Wen-Je Ko and Lien Sheng-weng running neck and neck. Others show Ko slightly ahead of Lien by a few percentage points. Taipei voters have always been more blue than green. This shift in public support has political observers wondering. Has the political climate in Taipei undergone a tectonic shift?

Objectively speaking, the outcome of the year end Taipei election, is less predictable than in the past. The main reason is the ruling blue and opposition green camp candidates are highly atypical. The two candidates are not your run of the mill politicians. Neither has any experience as an elected representative. Neither has any experience as a chief executive. Apart from their concern for politics, neither has ever conducted a grassroots campaign or worked in municipal government. Regardless of who is ultimately elected, Taipei City's future will be uncertain, filled with hidden dangers. This may be why Taipei voters have become extremely cautious. We hope they will be discerning in their thinking.

This is why the outcome of this election can no longer be predicted based on traditional blue vs. green voter support. We cannot rely on previous elections to tell us the outcome of this election. The reason is simple. Many people have changed how they see Taipei. Attempting to predict the future based on the past is unrealistic. Consider this. Blue camp candidate Ting Shou-chung and green camp candidate Yao Wen-chi both had solid public images. They campaigned at the grass-roots level for years. They both had excellent political credentials. Yet they lost their party primaries. Blue and green camp voters independently arrived at similar decisions. This means that most voters in the nation's capital are weary of "either/or" blue vs. green politics. They prefer someone new. They do not want the same old faces. Voters are psychologically weary. Naturally they are voting differently.

This constitutes a threat to the blue and green camps, one they cannot dismiss. Truth be told, blue camp Mayor Hau's record in Taipei was not bad. But his record of achievements may not help Lien Sheng-wen. This probably means that voters in the nation's capital are disappointed with the central government.

Meanwhile, it is too early to assume that Wen-Je Ko's momentum will automatically translate into majority support for the green camp. Wen-Je Ko was reluctant to join the DPP, from start to finish. The winner of the DPP party primaries was essentially forced to run against Wen-Je Ko, a party outsider. One could praise the DPP for its pragmatism. But a candidate endorsed by a major political party was no match for a novice who was not even a DPP member. Is this really something the DPP cares to brag about?

Political brands have lost their lustre. That means the year end election will be a new beginning. It will not be a traditional blue vs. green duel. It will be a personal duel between Lien Sheng-wen and Wen-Je Ko. To some extent, they can shed their blue or green political labels, But their personal character and political record will be magnified and put on display. This is what will determine the outcome of the election.

Consider Lien Sheng-wen's situation as a member of the blue camp. Wen-Je Ko expressed certain attitudes about his opponent. It is clear that the year end election campaign will be dominated by personal attacks against Lien Sheng-wen, They will attack Lien Sheng-wen's background, his experience, and his words and deeds. They are sure to be part of an unprecedented negative campaign. To use a current expression, Lien has already been subjected to a "ren rou shou suo" or "full body search." He has already been "fully exposed." Any informatiion that can blacken his reputation is sure to be paraded before the public over the next few months. Lien Sheng-wen must unify the blue camp, He must assemble a strong team. He must show voters a good report card. He must prove to the public in the nation's capital that he will be a superior "CEO" for the city. He is sure to be inundated by negative campaigning until he is black and blue.

The same is true for Wen-Je Ko. The party primaries must be regarded as a honeymoon period. His charisma and his image as a fighter make him unique in the green camp. He actually made it all the way without the support of any political party. He outshone all the green camp party princes. He even leads Lien Sheng-wen in the polls. But he will have a hard row to hoe in the future. He can no longer expect to become mayor of the nation's capital merely by shaming Lien Sheng-wen. He must show that he is a man of integrity. He must offer a blueprint for the city. He must assemble a team capable of governing. Victory in the Taipei mayoral election is possible. But if all he does is attack his opponent, he is likely to suffer a backlash.

The ruling and opposition camp candidates have positioned themselves for the Taipei mayoral campaign. Voter support appears to have shifted. But frankly any prediction is premature. How will Lien Sheng-wen and Wen-Je Ko prove themselves to Taipei residents? How capable and how trustworthy are they? This is probably the only real factor capable of changing voter support.

社論－台北市藍綠基本盤改變了嗎
2014年06月16日 04:09
本報訊

台大醫師柯文哲將代表綠營出馬角逐台北市長選舉，首都市長選舉藍綠陣營人選已經確定，部分媒體在第一時間公布民調顯示，柯文哲與連勝文兩人支持度要不是在伯仲之間，就是柯微幅領先連幾個百分點。台北市選民基本盤歷來藍大於綠，這種民意支持比率的變化，不禁讓政情觀察家開始研究，台北是否出現變天的徵兆？

客觀的說，今年年底的台北市選情，比起往年任何一次選舉都難預估。最主要的緣由，是朝野藍綠陣營此番推出的候選人，都具有相當的異質性格。兩位參選人都不是傳統政客，既無議會民代的經歷，更沒有行政首長資歷，換言之，他們兩人除了關心政治外，沒有基層經營閱歷也沒有市政治理經驗，不論最終由誰當選，台北未來市政的前景，其實都充滿了諸多不確定性，甚至還隱藏了若干風險。可能就是這個原因，讓台北市民選前表態變得格外審慎，希望更慎思明辨些。

也因為這樣，我們或許已經不能再從傳統的基本盤觀念去預估這場選戰，甚至不該再拿歷屆選舉之得票數去推估這次大選的結果！理由很簡單，假如許多台北市民的想法已改變，那麼再企圖想從過去的盤勢推估未來的大勢，恐怕已經不切實際。試想，不論藍營的丁守中還是綠營的姚文智，不僅皆是形象牌，而且經營基層多年，都具有豐厚的政治資歷，卻都在各自政黨的初選民調中落敗。假如藍綠陣營選民不約而同都做了類似的選擇，這意味首都多數選民對非藍即綠的舊政治已經相當厭煩，他們寧可讓政治新鮮人試試看，也不願留戀任何政治舊面孔！選民厭煩心理影響之下，選舉基本盤結構當然隨之改變。

不諱言說，這對藍綠兩陣營都是不容低估的警訊！對藍營而言，郝市長兩任的市政治理的成績，坦言說並不差，但這些政績似乎並不能轉移到對連勝文的支持，這反映的更多恐怕是首都選民對中央執政的失望。

同樣的，柯文哲目前的民調聲勢，要武斷的換算成是多數選民對綠營的支持恐怕還言之過早，要知道，柯文哲可是從頭到尾都不願加入民進黨的，這等於說民進黨自己先大張旗鼓辦了一場黨內初選，獲勝者還要與黨外的柯文哲再拚搏一次，你可以評論說這是民進黨務實，但一個政黨背書的招牌，拚搏不過一個黨外的政治新鮮人，又有什麼值得慶幸的呢？

政黨招牌既已褪色，意味今年年底的首都選戰已全面歸零，不復再是傳統藍綠基本盤對決的局面，而將會是場純粹由連勝文與柯文哲個人對決的選戰，某種程度上說，他們都可以擺脫藍綠政黨的包袱，但另一方面他們個人的特質與表現，不僅將會被放大檢視，甚至將會大幅度的左右這場選舉的結果。

對藍營的連勝文而言，從柯文哲先前明言希望對手是他的表態看來，今年年底選戰已經可以預估將會是對連個人進行全面負面攻擊的一場選戰，連勝文的背景、經歷與言行勢將蒙受前所未見的負面包裝，用現在流行的話說，他不僅早就經歷過負面人肉搜索，甚至早已被充分「洗底」，一堆不利他的材料與抹黑，肯定將會在接下來幾個月陸續搬演，如果連勝文不能號召藍營大團結，不能擺出堅強的行政團隊，不能提出漂亮的政見，迅速的向首都市民證明他將會是一個出色的市政CEO，那麼他屆時勢必將會被淹沒負面攻擊中，被修理得遍體鱗傷！

同樣的，對柯文哲而言，先前的預賽都只能算是蜜月期，他的人格魅力與抗爭形象，讓他在綠營中獨樹一幟，竟在沒有任何政黨的支撐下一路過關斬將，不僅勝過所有綠營天王級候選人，還在民調聲望上暫時領先連勝文，但接下來可都是硬仗了，他不可能再依賴修理連勝文就可以當上首都市長，他同樣必須證明他的人格特質、他的市政藍圖，乃至他所籌組的市政團隊，是可以接下台北市政府這個棒子的，如果他只知攻擊對手，恐怕也會遭到反挫。

台北市朝野陣營候選人就定位後，出現選民基本盤鬆動跡象，但坦言說目前一切都言之過早，連勝文與柯文哲將怎麼向台北市民證明自己的能力與可信賴，可能才是基本盤會不會真改變的唯一因素。