Use Cross-Strait Consenus: Connect to World from Mainland

Use Cross-Strait Consenus: Connect to World from Mainland
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 27, 2014

Summary: In the civilized world, people do not resort to brute force and authority to allocate resources. People can work together to create more resources. Over the past decade the United States has been mired in the Middle East, Now it is eager to return to Asia. It finds itself in need of a friend. The Mainland's "shi er wu" plan is critical to its goal of establishing a prosperous society. It calls for further reform and liberalization, for accelerating economc transformation during this crucial period. International politics is ruthless. Taiwan has special qualities that both sides need, including "integration" and "connection." We need not sell ourselves short. But we must choose the right path. Only then can we avoid falling and shattering ourselves into a million pieces.

Full Text Below:

Zhang Zhijun, director of the Mainland's Taiwan Affairs Office, has led a delegation to Taiwan. During the Wang Zhang Meeting, a number of cross-Strait deadlocks were resolved. Humanitarian access has been included among the functions of the newly established cross-Strait offices. The Mainland has agreed to allow business communications regarding Mainland tourist transit and Taiwan's membership in the TPP and RCEP, as well as Taiwan's participation in regional economic integration. The Mainland's once evasive stance has changed. It responded positively during the meeting. The two sides agreed to begin joint research as soon as possible. They will hold pragmatic discussions about  cross-Strait economic development. They will seek feasible and appropriate means to further regional economic cooperation and convergence.

Taiwan has a "shallow dish economy." Economic development is dependent upon international trade. If Taiwan is unable to join the TPP, RCEP, other regional economic organizations, as soon as possible, it will become isolated and experience a trade crisis. It will lose the international trade it is dependent upon. South Korea, our chief trade competitor, is signing FTAs with everyone and joining trade organizations everywhere. South Korea will acquire tariff and import advantages over Taiwan in the global market. Our markets will soon become theirs. Add competition from Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico. These TPP or RCEP countries are allied with each other. International trade no longer requires Taiwan. The result will be inevitable. Taiwan will be doomed. The Mainland has not fully committed to helping Taiwan join the TPP and RCEP. But Zhang Zhijun's commitment to Taiwan is a positive sign.

On the 24th of this month, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong spoke before the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a Washingto think tank. Lee noted that whether Taiwan can join the TPP depends on Mainland China and other TPP members. Joining the TPP is not merely an economic matter. It is also a political matter. He thinks that Singapore and many other countries share an interest in a stable cross-Strait relations. They can help, But they are not mediators, Singapore has no desire to play the role that the United States plays between Israel and the Arab countries.

Therefore we must connect with the Mainland. Only then can we connect with the rest of the world. Upon becoming DPP Chairperson, Tsai Ing-wen argued that "The DPP wants to connect with the rest of the world first. Only then is it willing to connect with [Mainland] China." As we have pointed out, the KMT and DPP take very different paths toward globalization. The DPP would leapfrog over Mainland China. The KMT prefers to connect with Mainland China first. Connecting directly with the rest of the world would be fine if it were feasible. No one would oppose it. But the DPP strategy of bypassing the Mainland is clearly infeasible. Lee Hsien Loong said it very clearly. Unless Taiwan improves cross-Strait relations, it cannot increase its international breathing room. This is a clearly understood political reality.

Therefore, Taiwan must take advantage of the consensus reached during this meeting. It must use the TPP to connect with the rest of world -- through the Mainland. The trail has been blazed. KMT Honorary Chairperson Lien Chan and CCP Chairperson Hu Jintao reached the "Lien Hu Five Points of Agreement" in 2005. This will be the most important windfall from that meeting.

As everyone knows, mankind's chief conflicts during the 21st century are between Islam and Christianity, and between Chinese civilization and American civilization. The major world conflict is between Mainland China and the U.S. Taiwan seeks to survive in the space in between. Recently, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke to Business Week. She warned that Taiwan is now at a turning point. Taiwan must decide how much it wishes to open up to the Chinese mainland. Once it loses its economic independence, it will lose its political independence and autonomy as well. She believes that If Taiwan becomes too dependent on Mainland China, it will become fragile. Therefore she called on Taiwan to decide how economically dependent wanted to be on Mainland China, to learn how to manage its relationship with Mainland China, and to find the line it must not cross. Hillary Clinton said that when it came to Washington-Taipei relations, the United States gave priority to Taiwan. Hillary Clinton said the key to the U.S. government's "one China policy" was peaceful coexistence between Taiwan and the Mainland. Her agenda is obvious. America believes in pragmatic diplomacy. Taiwan is located on the first island chain. It is the U.S. government's most important outpost in her containment policy against the Mainland. The United States seeks strategic benefits from its relationship with Taiwan.

Hillary's rhetoric should make Taiwan think. When Taiwan connects with the Mainland in order to connect with the rest of the world, how can it make the United States feel at ease? What can Taiwan give the United States? In 2002 Joe Studwell published "The China Dream: The Elusive Quest for the Greatest Untapped Market on Earth." Studwell put it bluntly. "China for us (Americans), is a cemetery. Everyone is bound to screw up in China." The Western world does not understand China. This lack of understanding is leading to greater and greater unease.

Taiwan shares the same culture as the Mainland. But it shares the same values as the United States. It has implemented a similar system as the United States. Taiwan is a fusion of Eastern and Western cultures. It is on the border between Chinese and Western systems.

The design of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone established a negative example. Xi and Li have been fighting corruption. They hope to shatter the unspoken rules of the past. Taiwan underwent a similar process. It can help the Mainland upgrade and transform, and become a truly civilized nation.

In the civilized world, people do not resort to brute force and authority to allocate resources. People can work together to create more resources. Over the past decade the United States has been mired in the Middle East, Now it is eager to return to Asia. It finds itself in need of a friend. The Mainland's "shi er wu" plan is critical to its goal of establishing a prosperous society. It calls for further reform and liberalization, for accelerating economc transformation during this crucial period. International politics is ruthless. Taiwan has special qualities that both sides need, including "integration" and "connection." We need not sell ourselves short. But we must choose the right path. Only then can we avoid falling and shattering ourselves into a million pieces.

社論－善用兩岸共識 從大陸走向國際
2014年06月27日 04:10
編輯部

大陸國台辦的張志軍主任率團來台，「王張二會」中，多項兩岸談判中的膠著議題獲得突破。「人道探視」確定納入兩岸互設辦事處功能；陸客中轉，陸方鬆口同意進行業務溝通。台灣加入TPP、RCEP等區域經濟整合問題，陸方一改過往迴避態度，會議上給予正面回應。雙方同意盡快啟動共同研究工作，務實探討兩岸經濟共同發展，與區域經濟合作進程相銜接的適當方式與可行途徑。

台灣是淺碟經濟體，經濟發展全靠國際經貿。如不盡快加入TPP、RCEP等區域經濟組織，台灣將陷入被孤立的經貿危機，國際貿易失去依託。我們的經貿對手南韓到處簽FTA與參與經貿組織，在全球市場關稅暨進口便利性上都將優於台灣，經貿市場拱手讓人。再加上越南、馬來西亞與墨西哥等TPP或 RCEP國家互相的結盟，國際經貿就不再需要台灣，這是必然的結果，屆時台灣將陷入萬劫不復之地。儘管大陸方面尚未全面承諾助台加入TPP、RCEP，但張志軍的承諾對台無疑是重要的正面訊息。

新加坡總理李顯龍24日在華府美國智庫「外交關係協會」（CFR）明白表示，台灣能否加入TPP要取決於中國和其他TPP成員是否同意，因為加入TPP不僅是經濟問題，也是政治問題。他也認為，新加坡與世界上的許多國家一樣，在穩定的兩岸關係中有利益。他們能幫忙，但不是一個調停者，新加坡沒有位置扮演美國在以色列和阿拉伯國家之間的角色。

因此我們要再度強調：必須連結大陸，才能走向世界。蔡英文就任民進黨主席後，又強調「民進黨要走向世界，再跟著世界走向中國」。我們曾指出，國民黨與民進黨全球化布局的路徑有很大的差異，民進黨採「跳陸邏輯」，跳過中國大陸；國民黨是「連陸邏輯」，連結中國大陸。能直接走向世界當然很好，如果做得到，誰都不會反對。但民進黨想繞過中國大陸的策略卻是清清楚楚行不通的。李顯龍說得很清楚，兩岸關係不改善，台灣的國際空間就很難拓展，這是政治上明白的現實。

因此我們認為未來台灣應善用這次會議共識，藉TPP從大陸走向國際。這一條路已經開啟。這將會是堆積木完成2005年國共兩黨領導人連戰與胡錦濤建立「連胡五大共識」最重要的關鍵。

眾所周知，21世紀人類主要的衝突，在伊斯蘭教與基督教，及中國文明與美國文明間的文化衝突，世界版圖大國的衝突也在中美之間，台灣正在夾縫中求生存。日前美國前國務卿希拉蕊接受《商業周刊》專訪時警告台灣「正面臨轉捩點」，台灣必須權衡對中國開放到什麼程度，一旦失去經濟獨立，將影響政治獨立的自主性。她認為，台灣若依賴中國太深，會變得脆弱，因而呼籲台灣「必須決定經濟對中國依賴的程度，學到處理這段關係的能力，找出不能越界的底線」。希拉蕊並說美台關係「美國把台灣放在優先順位」。縱然希拉蕊也強調美國「一個中國政策」的核心是希望中國大陸與台灣能和平相處。但是司馬昭之心，路人皆知：美國信奉務實主義外交路線，台灣在島鏈前緣，是美國圍堵政策對抗中國最重要的先鋒，美國是要從台灣得到戰略利益。

聽過希拉蕊的論述，台灣要慎思，透過大陸走向國際時，要如何讓美國安心？台灣能給美國什麼利益？喬‧史塔威爾在2002年出版的《中國熱》（The China Dream）直言「中國對我們（美國人）來說就是墳場，大家在中國都註定會搞砸。」西方世界對中國不了解與不了解造成的不安，愈來愈強烈。

台灣與大陸有相同的文化，卻與美國分享相同的價值觀，實行類似的制度。台灣是東西文化融合之處，是中西制度接壤之土。大陸最近在上海自貿區負面表列的設計及習李體制的革新打貪腐，希望打破過去的潛規則。台灣已經走過類似的路，可以幫助大陸整體升級轉型，成為真正的文明國家。

在文明世界裡，人們不用拳力、權力來分配既有的資源，人們可以藉由合作來創造更多資源。美國過去十年在中東深陷泥淖，現在急於重返亞洲，正需要朋友。大陸的十二五規畫是「大陸全面建設小康社會的關鍵時期，是深化改革開放、加快轉變經濟發展方式的攻堅時期。」國際政治無情，台灣特殊的「融合」與「接壤」特質是雙方都需要的價值。我們不必妄自菲薄，但是要選對道路，才不會跌跌撞撞，甚至粉身碎骨。