Lien Sheng-wen's Campaign Crisis

Lien Sheng-wen's Campaign Crisis
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 26, 2014

Summary: Election day is still some time off. Extrapolating from the present in an attempt to predict the future, will only lead to baseless conclusions. Lien Sheng-wen must not become overly-reliant on traditional blue vs. green voter thinking. He must not conclude that being overly cautious and avoiding mistakes will ensure his election. His campaign committee must not adhere to the superstitious belief that history must repeat itself. He must assess his situation, and find a way to win back public support.

Full Text Below:

The ruling and opposition parties have completed their nomination processes for the capital city mayoral election. Public support for Wen-Je Ko and Lien Sheng-wen has quickly reversed, and the gap has significantly widened. More and more, Wen-Je Ko is expected to win. By contrast, support for Lien Sheng-wen continues to decline. This is merely late June. Election day is still some time away. Many uncertainties still remain. But past election experience suggests that Lien Sheng-wen, who has just begun his race, is already looking bad. This is indeed puzzling, and deserves further exploration.

Early last year Lien Sheng-wen enjoyed more support than all the other Taipei Mayoral candidates. It was precisely this high degree of support that made Lien Sheng-wen consider entering the race. It was also the reason he defeated veteran Ting Shou-chung during the party primaries. A majority of blue camp voters abandoned veteran blue camp politician Ting Shou-chung. They opted instead for political novice Lien Sheng-wen. Lien Sheng-wen is young. He has the blessing of Lien Chan. But there must be other reasons why so many voters had such high expectations of him. These expectations were highly subjective, During his past appearances in campaign activities, Lien Sheng-wen conveyed a certain image. This image was appealing precisely because it was so unorthodox.

Why characterize Lien Sheng-wen as unorthodox? Because although he comes from a political family, he has remained in private business. He may have paid attention to politics. But he has never held any executive or legislative branch office. This shortcoming has deprived Lien Sheng-wen of needed political experience. But it also made him stand out from traditional lukewarm, overly cautious, and conservative blue camp politicians. Since Ma's advent, all areas of the political arena have become filled with Ma faction elites. The vast majority are academics and technocrats who exhibit this very trait. That is not necessarily bad. But when it comes to checking and balancing the green camp, these people are often helpless and indecisive. This behavior is precisely what has crippled the Ma administration in spite of its vigorous efforts. Even blue camp supporters are deeply disappointed. The Ma administration is dogged by this image of weakness. Recently a Tokyo Museum poster omitted the word "national," when referring to the Ma sponsored exhibit at the National Palace Museum. Ma took an unusually tough stance on the matter, which took many people by surprise. Hardline Taiwan independence advocates and hardline Chinese reunificationists alike proposed all sorts of conspiracy theories.

Lien Sheng-wen debuted as an unorthodox KMT candidate. But after his nomination, under pressure to reconcile with party elders, his unorthodox image quickly evaporated. Since his nomination, Lien Sheng-wen has appeared before TV cameras on a daily basis. He has become the living embodiment of the lukewarm, overly cautious, and conservative Kuomintang politician. The once young, forthright, and outspoken Lien Sheng-wen, the one who criticized Ma Ying-jeou for exhibiting the traits of the Ming Dynasty, has vanished. He has not regained party elder support. But he has lost those traits that first won him public favor.

Even assuming Lien Sheng-wen still has these qualities, those personality traits alone will not get him elected. After all, he is running for mayor of Taipei. As everyone knows, voters in nation's capitals the world over are picky. Voters in Taipei are no exception. Lien Sheng-wen must prove that he has the leadership to serve as mayor. He must prove that he has the necessary vision and policy blueprint. He must organize a policy implementation team. Unfortunately following Lien Sheng-wen's nomination, this was precisely why people begin to doubt him. As one can probably imagine, Lien Sheng-wen's campaign headquarters is filled with Ma camp people, young, middle-aged, and elderly. Many elders will be eager to help. Mollifying these different groups will be difficult. Acknowleding their seniority and adhering to protocol alone will be a daunting task. Many people are elbowing each other aside in a rush to offer suggestions to Lien Sheng-wen. Lien Sheng-wen has undergone trials and tribulations. His appeal has faded. His charisma has been eroded.

Worse still, he hastily offered a number of policy proposals. He failed to think them through. He underscored his own weaknesses. Take for example his recently launched "New Vision Plan." He proposed that the Civic Center be moved from the Xinyi District to the west end of the Taipei Train Station, as a solution to underdevelopment. Never mind whose idea this was. Anyone familiar with urban planning knows that regional development has nothing to do with where municipal centers are located. Harlem and the rest of Manhattan are regions of New York City. They are poles apart in their degree of development. But no Mayor of New York City is about to move New York City Hall to Harlem. Moving it there would not bring Harlem up to the leve of other parts of Manhattan. The western region of Taipei is underdeveloped. Ma Ying-jeou proposed a solution early during his mayoral campaign. After two-terms as mayor and nearly 18 years time, some of these programs have failed and some have succeeded. But none led to any fundamental change in policy. Lien Sheng-wen needs to do his homework. He must not be in a hurry to offer empty slogans. Doing so will merely underscore his weakness.

Election day is still some time off. Extrapolating from the present in an attempt to predict the future, will only lead to baseless conclusions. Lien Sheng-wen must not become overly-reliant on traditional blue vs. green voter thinking. He must not conclude that being overly cautious and avoiding mistakes will ensure his election. His campaign committee must not adhere to the superstitious belief that history must repeat itself. He must assess his situation, and find a way to win back public support.

社論－透視連勝文的競選危機
2014年06月26日 04:10
本報訊

朝野陸續完成首都市長提名程序後，連勝文與柯文哲兩人聲勢，很快出現逆轉並顯著拉開，柯文哲看好度與支持度不斷上揚，相對連勝文氣勢卻一路下挫。雖說現在才6月下旬，距離實際投票日還有一段不短的時間，許多不確定的變數都可能發生，但相較於過往的選情走勢經驗，連勝文才剛起跑就出現氣勢不足現象，確實耐人尋味，值得深入探討。

要知道，早從去年到現在，連勝文一直都是台北市長各種模擬民調中聲望最高人選，也是這股超高人氣，讓連勝文開始認真考慮參選，並在最終的黨內初選中打敗了經營許久的丁守中。如果說多數藍軍選民寧可捨棄從政經驗豐富的丁守中，轉而選擇宛如政壇菜鳥的連勝文，除了年輕活力，有連戰勢力加持外，一定還有其它的理由，讓許多選民對他產生某種期待。所謂期待，很大部分是主觀的，因而我們有理由相信，應該是連勝文過往助選或在各種公開活動中，所表現出來的某種人格形象。這種人格形象會受到欣賞，其實是因為帶有濃厚非典型特質。

何以說連勝文帶有非典型特質？他本人雖然出身政治世家，卻一直留在民間經商，除了關注政治外，並未在行政或立法部門擔任過任何職務，這種缺憾雖然讓連勝文少了從政所需要的閱歷，卻也不見傳統藍軍政客所習見的溫吞、謹慎與保守等特質，當前政壇，從馬英九以降，充斥於各個部門，馬團隊的精英，絕大多數來自學界與技術官僚，形象表現上最突出的正是這種特質。這種特質不一定不好，但碰到綠軍以戰鬥的姿態進行制衡時，就往往表現出瞻前顧後、無計可施甚至進退維谷的境地，正是這種表現，讓馬政府即便很用力的推動施政，卻表現得極為弱勢，弄到連藍軍支持者都失望。在弱勢形象籠罩下，馬政府這次在故宮文物東瀛展出前夕，為了東博海報上少了「國立」兩字，異常強硬的姿態，竟然讓不少人感到意外，甚至形形色色，由極獨到極統立場的陰謀論紛紛出爐。

連勝文初生之犢的國民黨非典型特質，卻在提名後必須與深藍和解的壓力下，迅速消失無影，自從提名後，連勝文每天跑行程的電視機鏡頭前，面孔滿是「溫吞、謹慎、保守」的傳統國民黨特質，原來年輕氣盛、直率敢言、批評馬英九「大明王朝」的氣勢全然消失，他可能還沒有爭取到深藍回流，卻先失去欣賞他原先人格特質者的歡心。

重點是，就算連勝文仍然具備這些特質，也並不意味僅靠這些人格形象就能順利當選，畢竟他要選的是台北市長，誰都知道全世界的首都選民都很挑剔，台北選民何嘗例外？換言之，連勝文必須展現他有擔任市長的領導氣魄，還必須證明他有夠水準的施政藍圖與願景，以及有執行力的施政團隊。偏偏就在這一部分上，連勝文獲得提名後，開始讓人對他產生疑慮。可想而知，連的競選總部目前一定是各路人馬進駐，世代包括老中青，特別是一些公公老老都會加入熱心幫忙，光論資排輩擺平這群不同系統的人馬，就得花不少工夫，搶著要向連勝文提供各種建議的人更是不少，連勝文給大家這麼一折騰，不僅他先前的特質逐漸消失，甚至連原有的初生之犢氣勢都給磨掉了！

更糟糕的是，他過於急切推出的若干施政構想，可能因為思慮不夠周密，反而突出了他的短處。例如日前推出的「新視野計畫」中，主張將市政中心從信義區遷移到台北車站西邊，作為解決西區的發展落後的方案，不論這是誰出的點子，相信稍具都市規畫概念的人都清楚，都市內各個不同區域的發展，與市政中心設在哪裡根本是兩回事。這就好像曼哈頓與哈林區都在紐約，發展程度卻天差地遠，但永遠不會有一位紐約市長為了解決哈林區的發落展後，乾脆將市政中心移到哈林，因為就算真移過去了，也不會讓哈林變成曼哈頓。台北西區發展落後的問題，早在馬英九競選市長時即提過方案，經過兩任市長快18年，期間有些方案失敗了，也有若干方案成功了，但並不能產生軸線翻轉之效。連勝文應先在這裡做功課，而不是急著推出空洞的口號，被人看破手腳。

距離實際投票日還早，拿現在的局面去推估最終的結果，只會得到武斷的結論。但連勝文不能過度依賴傳統台北市選民藍綠版圖舊思維，認為謹慎小心不犯錯，就可以低空掠過當選。他的團隊不能迷信歷史可以永遠複製，必須審時度勢，找出支持度翻轉向上的策略。