Failure of US Containment: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Makes History

Failure of US Containment: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Makes History
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 25, 2015

Executive Summary: Globalization and the Internet are blurring the boundaries between West and East. International politics and international power will be increasingly dependent upon realpolitik rather than ideology. Britain, France, Germany, and Italy rushing to join the AIIB is a manifestation of this phenomenon. Under the circumstances, will Taiwan raise the barrier between the two sides? Will it cut off relations with the World Island? The STA, MTA must be approved as soon as possible. Every agency of the ROC government should be thinking about how to join the AIIB.

Full Text Below:

Let us recall some history. In 1793, Lord Macartney, the British special envoy to Beijing, refused to kneel before
Emperor Qianlong on the latter's birthday. The implication was that China was in decline. In 2015 however, in defiance of US objectiions, Britain chose to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), headquartered in Beijing. Is the implication that China is now ascendant?

Britain has never been a nation ruled by ideology. She has long practiced realpolitik. Her policies invariably favor commercial interests. Two Opium Wars during the 19th century humiliated China. But for the British, they merely cleared the way for trade. Today, despite powerful opposition from her staunch Anglo-Saxon ally, she has decided to join the AIIB. She has relied on old-fashioned business sense, and sniffed out the astonishing commercial potential of the AIIB and “One Belt, One Road”. 

Britain ignored US opposition and joined the AIIB. This makes it a landmark event. The US postures as the global hegemon. Last year, when Beijing announced its intention to establish the AIIB, the US categorically opposed any of its allies joining. The EU, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, having been warned, all did nothing. On March 12, however, Britain defected, and the situation changed overnight. To everyone's surprise, the staunchest members of "Team America" were first to break rank. Britain led, followed by Germany, France, and Italy, all running for the door. Luxembourg and Switzerland, two little financial giants, followed in the footsteps of the Big Guy. Without a trace of embarrassment, they joined the ranks of “Team China”.

Strategic analysts the world over regard this as a major geopolitical event. This was not merely a diplomatic defeat for United States. This hinted at an historical trend. This suggests that the US hegemon's China containment strategy will probably fail.

The US boycotted the AIIB for a very superficial reason. It hinted darkly that “AIIB lending standards may be too low, resulting in risk." But as former US Treasury official Ted Truman noted, if the US hopes to influence the AIIB, it must be inside the tent, not outside. Put bluntly, this is all part of a long term Sino-US struggle for hegemony, one that is ending in US defeat. The United States is attempting to use the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) to shut Mainland China out. That is another way of excluding Mainland China. That is the next battle, one in which the outcome remains hard to foresee.

The AIIB incident has yet another meaning. It represents a geopolitical tectonic shift. The century old "European-American alliance" shows signs of fracturing. By contrast, Europe and Asia show signs of coming together. Beginning with Marco Polo in the 13th century, "Eurasia" was equated with “the world”, with a "world island". By the end of the 19th century however, the United States was reunified in the wake of the Civil War. It abandoned isolationism and participated in European affairs. Europe and America merged into "The West”. By contrast, Asia remained under colonial subjugation, and was plunged into darkness.

Over the past 20 years however, Mainland China and India have re-emerged and caught up. Formerly backward Asia, once again leapt onto the world stage. The "One Belt, One Road” paradigm has reconnected India and Mainland China with Europe by means of an historic "Silk Road". The AIIB attempts to build a even more powerful "World Island” financial mechanism, linking Europe and Asia. The European nations saw the cultural and economic implications, and did an abrupt about face.

Years from now, when the "world island" has been successfully formed in accordance with the two Silk Roads blueprint, the world will consist of a "World Island" and an "American Island". When the time comes, Mainland China will not necessarily be the World Island chief. She has many internal defects, including an authoritarian political system. She may not be able to create an entirely new model. But she will play an important role. By then, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Mainland China, India and Russia will form one team, while Team America will boast only the US, Canada and Brazil.

The tide is putting several East Asian members of "Team America" to the test. As we look to the future, the awakened World Island comes as a shock. Will Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan cling to their Cold War mentality? Will they persist in their attempts to contain Mainland China? Will they align themselves with the nearby World Island, or with Team American thousands of nautical miles away? Will they resign themselves to being America's Kinmen, Wuqui, and Matsu?

Globalization and the Internet are blurring the boundaries between West and East. International politics and international power will be increasingly dependent upon realpolitik rather than ideology. Britain, France, Germany, and Italy rushing to join the AIIB is a manifestation of this phenomenon. Under the circumstances, will Taiwan raise the barrier between the two sides? Will it cut off relations with the World Island? The STA, MTA must be approved as soon as possible. Every agency of the ROC government should be thinking about how to join the AIIB.

聯合／美國圍堵失靈：亞投行事件的歷史徵候
2015-03-25 02:25:57 聯合報 聯合報社論

從大歷史的角度看，一七九三年到北京祝壽的英國特使馬戛爾尼拒絕向乾隆皇帝下跪，暗示了中國的衰落；而二○一五年英國不顧美國勸阻，決定加入以北京為總部的「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」，是否將注解中國的復興？

英國向來不以意識形態作為國家指針，她遵循現實主義，商業利益是其政策依歸。十九世紀兩次鴉片戰爭，對中國是民族的恥辱；但對英國而言，卻不過是替貿易鑿出孔道。這次，她不顧盎格魯撒克遜民族堅定盟友的反對，毅然加入「亞投行」，依舊是出於老派行家的商業嗅覺，她顯然嗅出了「亞投行」眺目的陸海兩條絲路所蟄藏的驚人金脈。

英國不顧美國勸阻加入「亞投行」，是一樁標誌性事件。美國以全球霸主之姿，從前年北京倡議成立亞投行開始，即全面性地攔阻其盟友加入，歐盟各國與日、韓、澳大利亞都受到警告按兵不動；直到三月十二日英國發動了這起堪稱「叛逃」的行動，情勢一夕翻轉。事前沒人料到，軍容壯闊的「美國隊伍」竟由她最堅定的盟友打破了陣線缺口，不列顛的槍聲劃過，德、法、義也奪門而出，盧森堡、瑞士兩個金融小巨人則跟著前面的大個子，臉不紅氣不喘地踱到對方的中國隊伍裡。

全球外交戰略學者都把這次事件當成一樁重大的全球地緣政治事件。首先，它不只是美國的一次外交挫敗，它也可能洩漏了一個歷史風聲：美國對可能挑戰她全球霸主地位的中國所採取的圍堵戰略，長期而言恐將歸於失效。

美國抵制亞投行，用了一個十分膚淺的理由：「亞投行的放貸標準可能太低，造成風險」。但誠如美國前財政部官員泰德．杜魯門（Ted Truman）所言，「如果你想對亞投行發生影響力，你應該在帳篷裡面，而不是在帳篷外面。」說穿了，這完全是美中爭霸長遠戲碼的一段折子，並暫以美國慘敗收場。但美國正藉著跨太平洋夥伴協議（ＴＰＰ），以排斥中國加入方式，組成另一道反華防線；那是下一場搏鬥，而勝負尚難以逆料。

其次，這樁「亞投行事件」的另一意涵，是地緣政治板塊的劇烈滑動：被鑄造在一起已超過百年的「歐美」合稱，出現了裂解的跡象，而分隔許久的「歐亞」則正被重新黏合起來。自十三世紀馬可波羅開始，「歐亞」已被理解是整個地球的「世界島」，但十九世紀美國結束南北戰爭重歸統一後，逐漸拋棄孤立主義，參與歐洲事務，歐美反而融成一個「西方」；相對的，亞洲則陷入被殖民的命運，跌進了黑暗。

但近廿年來，不僅中國重新崛起，印度也迎頭趕上，衰落的亞洲再度躍上世界舞台。而「一帶一路」兩條絲路主張，是將印、中與歐洲再度藉由歷史上的那條「絲路」連結起來，亞投行是歐、亞試圖打造較諸中世紀更強大的「世界島」的資金機制，歐洲看到了它在文化與經濟上的意涵，遂翩然來歸。

若干年後，當「世界島」依據兩條絲路的藍圖與願望被成功塑造之後，世界的格局將成為「世界島」vs.「美洲島」的態勢，那時，中國未必是世界島的盟主，因為她有諸多內在缺陷，包括其專制的政治，但她未必不能演繹出一個全新的模式而依然舉足輕重。屆時，有可能英德法義中印俄將是一隊，而美洲隊卻只剩美加和巴西。

浪潮正在拷問東亞的幾個「美國隊員」，當我們遠眺未來時，赫然看見了世界島的甦醒；那麼，此刻仍在冷戰的思維框架中，圍堵中國的日本、韓國與台灣，究竟應歸向近在咫尺的世界島，抑是依戀數萬浬外的美國隊，自願作為美國在太平洋西岸的金門、烏坵與馬祖？

全球化與網路正在泯除西方與東方的界線，國際政治與權力將更大比例地根據現實利益為取捨，而不是依賴意識形態，英法德義奔向亞投行，正是這個現象的表徵。就此而論，台灣豈應再加高兩岸的藩籬，更與世界島阻絕？今天，不只是服、貨貿應該儘速通過，各部門更應思索如何向亞投行叩門。