China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
July 16, 2015
Executive Summary: Former legislator Shen Fu-hsiung has published an article on Hung Hsiu-chu's One China, Same Interpretation. Shen said that "For perhaps the very first time, Beijing realizes it cannot expect the KMT to hold the line (against Taiwan independence) on Taiwan, while simultaneously hoping that the KMT will vanish from the face of the earth." Actually, it would be more accurate to replace the term "KMT" with the term "Republic of China". This newspaper made that point in an editorial entitled "Last Chance to Resolve Anti-China Sentiment", a response to Hung Hsiu-chu's call to "Recognize the Republic of China". This is the last chance to curb the spread of anti-China sentiment on Taiwan.
Full Text Below:
Former legislator Shen Fu-hsiung has published an article on Hung Hsiu-chu's One China, Same Interpretation. Shen said that "For perhaps the very first time, Beijing realizes it cannot expect the KMT to hold the line (against Taiwan independence) on Taiwan, while simultaneously hoping that the KMT will vanish from the face of the earth." Actually, it would be more accurate to replace the term "KMT" with the term "Republic of China". This newspaper made that point in an editorial entitled "Last Chance to Resolve Anti-China Sentiment", a response to Hung Hsiu-chu's call to "Recognize the Republic of China". This is the last chance to curb the spread of anti-China sentiment on Taiwan.
On May 1, Hung Hsiu-chu issued her Cross-Strait Talking Points. She championed One China, Same Interpretation and a Cross-Strait Peace Agreement. Two months have elapsed, but Beijing has yet to issue a positive response. There may be several reasons for this.
Reason One. Beijing may remember the lessons of the past. It knows the public on Taiwan often reacts negatively to Mainland interference with elections on Taiwan. It may be deliberately refraining from external intervention, knowing that Mainland support for a particular candidate may well provoke a backlash. But this must not be over-generalized. This sort of backlash is usually directed at a particular person or political party. In other words, If the Mainland attempts to influence voters through concrete or verbal support for Hung Hsiu-chu as a candidate or the Kuomintang as a party, it is likely to invite a backlash.
But recognizing the Republic of China by recognizing its jurisdiction, will not enable the ROC to participate in international activities, or affirm its international status. This is something everyone on Taiwan aspires to, whether blue or green. This is something this newspaper has called for repeatedly. The Mainland should respond positively, not to Hung Hsiu-chu or the KMT, but to the Republic of China and public on Taiwan. This is something the public on Taiwan would welcome with open arms.
In fact, the Republic of China's lack of international status prevents it from participating in normal international activities. The public on Taiwan feels humiliated by this. This in turn becomes the fuel rods that fuel green camp anti-China sentiment.
Drastic action is needed. The fuel rods that fuel anti-China sentiment must be withdrawn. Otherwise no expressions of goodwill toward Taiwan will have any effect. They will be contaminated by the radiation emitted by the nuclear fuel rods.
Reason Two. A second reason Beijing has failed to respond, is that Hung Hsiu-chu remains the underdog. If her election prospects continue to deteriorate, Tsai Ing-wen may become the president elect. The Mainland may not want Tsai. But it may assume it has no choice. Alas, such thinking includes two blind spots.
Blind Spot One. This is the Internet era. The chances of an overnight election upset have increased dramatically. Until the ballots are counted, anything is possible. Hung Hsiu-chu's election prospects are dim, but not because Tsai Ing-wen is so much better. They are dim because Hung is saddled with a heavy tortoise shell of anti-China sentiment. This makes it difficult for her to compete against Tsai Ing-wen, a highly mobile rabbit.
This heavy shell is not something either the Kuomintang or Hung Hsiu-chu can remove on their own. The shell can only be removed by the one who put it there. The shell can only be removed by recognizing the Republic of China. In other words, if the Mainland is willing to remove the shell, Hung Hsiu-chu may well be able to catch up. If she sprints during the coming half year, there is no reason she cannot reverse her political fortunes.
The Mainland need not support Hung Hsiu-chu. It need not help Hung Hsiu-chu win points. It need only remove her biggest handicap. It need only withdraw the fuel rods that supply anti-China sentiment with endless energy. Hung Hsiu-chu and Tsai Ing-wen can then compete on a level playing field. In other words, the more the Mainland hesitates, the heavier the burden on Hung Hsiu-chu. In effect, the Mainland is currently helping the Tsai campaign.
Blind Spot Two. Even if Tsai Ing-wen is eventually elected, the Mainland should recognize the ROC and ROC government jurisdiction. Doing so will make it harder for Tsai Ing-wen to change her tune. It will have an anchoring effect. Tsai Ing-wen has been forced by the requirements of the election to openly recognize the ROC constitutional framework. She has been forced to comply with the ROC constitutional framework. If the Mainland recognizes the ROC, it will lock Tsai Ing-wen into the Republic of China framework. She will be unable to escape its One China Constitution and its restrictions against de jure independence. This is also conducive to cross-Strait peace.
Shen Fu-hsiung said "Hung Hsiu-chu's election prospects are dim. The KMT faces total collapse. If it does collapse, who knows when it can make a comeback?" Strictly speaking, whether a candidate loses an election is not important. Whether a political party collapses is secondary. The real point is that the Republic of China must not fall. The Republic of China is the greatest common denominator on Taiwan. It is the emotional and historical cross-Strait link. It it falls, Taiwan will descend into chaos. If the link is broken, the two side will never know peace.
This is not something only the Mainland authorities must think about. This is not something only blue and green leaders must pay attention to. This is something everyone on Taiwan must understand and contemplate at length before voting in the 2016 elections.
認為「北京可能首次了解到，他不能既要國民黨撐住台灣的局面， 又要國民黨從地球上消失。」其實，「國民黨」三個字換成「 中華民國」會更貼切些。這也是本報在《 化解反中浪潮的最後機會點》社評中所強調，回應洪秀柱提出的「 承認中華民國」，是遏止台灣內部反中氛圍四方蔓延的最後機會。
深知台灣社會對大陸介入選舉存有「反向情緒」， 刻意避免外界大陸介入選舉、支持特定候選人的作文空間， 唯恐引發反作用力。但這並非可以一概而論，首先， 這種反向情緒的發酵，主要是針對個人或政黨。也就是說， 大陸若以具體行動或口頭表達對洪秀柱個人的支持， 或對國民黨的支持，試圖干預選民做出的決定， 就很容易引起反作用。
可以根本解決中華民國參與國際社會的身分定位與適格性問題， 這是不分藍綠、台灣人民共同希望的，也是本報一再呼籲的。 大陸若做出正面回應，那不是對「洪秀柱」或「國民黨」的支持， 而是對「中華民國」與「台灣人民」的善意。這一點， 台灣人民必然是樂見與歡迎的。
任何變化都是可能的。洪秀柱的劣勢，既不在她個人條件不好， 也不是因為蔡英文多優秀，而是洪秀柱背著一個社會「反中情緒」 的厚殼，無法和蔡英文這隻立場經常跳動的兔子賽跑。
卸殼還需裝殼人，而這個厚殼，只有「正視中華民國」 才有可能解決。換言之，只要大陸願意卸掉殼， 洪秀柱就可以以輕盈之身急起直追，半年衝刺， 其實未嘗沒有逆轉的機會。
只要幫洪秀柱拿掉這最大的「扣分項」， 抽掉這根源源不絕提供反中能量的燃料棒，洪秀柱就能與蔡英文「 公平」一搏。換言之，躊躇無為，反而加重洪秀柱的選舉負擔， 等於變相為蔡英文助選。
承認中華民國的治權，也將拉高蔡英文的轉彎成本，形成另一種「 定錨效應」，因為蔡英文為了選舉，已不得不說出「 中華民國憲政體制論」， 既然她已口頭宣示要遵守中華民國憲政體制，那麼， 大陸承諾中華民國，也等於把蔡英文定著在「中華民國」框架內， 不能擺脫「一中憲法」對法理台獨的限制， 這也有利於維繫兩岸和平。
而且此一崩，更不知何年何月才能翻身。」嚴格來說， 一個候選人選情危不危險、一個政黨會不會崩盤，其實是次要問題。 真正的關鍵在於，洪秀柱選情陷危無妨，國民黨倒台就罷，但是「 中華民國」不能倒，中華民國不只是台灣目前最大的公約數， 也是兩岸情感與歷史記憶的連結點，公約數一破，台灣必亂， 這個連結點一斷，兩岸無寧日。
不只是藍綠領導人不能漠視輕忽的，更重要的， 這更是台灣全體民眾必須嚴肅體認，必須在2016選舉投票前要三 思再三思的大事。