US Pork Imports: What is Tsai Ing-wen's Solution?

US Pork Imports: What is Tsai Ing-wen's Solution?
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 23, 2015

Executive Summary: Vice Minister of Economic Affairs Cho Shih-chao recently said that if Taiwan wants to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it must allow US pork imports. US pork may not taste good. It may taste "gamey". But we can label the place of origin and allow consumers to decide what to buy. The very next day however, Cho Shih-chao changed his tune. He said "That was merely my personal opinion". He said if he had known a reporter was present that day, he would not have said it out loud.

Full Text Below:

Vice Minister of Economic Affairs Cho Shih-chao recently said that if Taiwan wants to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it must allow US pork imports. US pork may not taste good. It may taste "gamey". But we can label the place of origin and allow consumers to decide what to buy. The very next day however, Cho Shih-chao changed his tune. He said "That was merely my personal opinion". He said if he had known a reporter was present that day, he would not have said it out loud.

Cho Shih-chao's panic and backpedaling is easy to understand. If we wish to join the TPP, we must of course comply with TPP regulations. If we unilaterally impose limits on US pork imports, we will not be allowed to join the TPP. One cannot have one's cake and eat it too. The trade-offs must be weighed against one another. A general election looms. If the ruling party touches these hot button issues, it is certain to invite opposition party allegations that the government is "indifferent to the interests of pig farmers". Pig farmers are certain to take to the streets in protest. The KMT's election prospects are already dim. Cho Shih-chao hastily backpedaled. He knew he stirred up a hornet's nest.

The problem is threefold. One. Do we want to join the TPP or not? If we do not, can we confidently thrive amidst international competition? Two. If we must join the TPP, the United States will insist that we allow the US pork imports. If we refuse, won't we be prevented from joining? Is there is some loophole that would allow us to join the TPP regardless? Three. Are we willing to safeguard the interests of Taiwan's pig farmers at the expense of other industries? Do they not matter? Does joining the TPP no longer matter?

Cho Shih-chao said that "We must allow US pork imports".  That means that the Ma government considers the overall benefits of Taiwan joining the TPP, outweighs any impact on the pork industry. We can use "country of origin" labeling as a way to remind people to buy less US pork. Allowing imports is consistent with international trade principles. Using "country of origin" labels enables consumers to reduce demand for US pork imports, and support local pig farmers. Such a solution is eminently reasonable. But Ma government timidity, makes it difficult to implement. Another question is even more intriguing. Namely, how does the DPP intend to deal with this problem?

Tsai Ing-wen recently met with former US Vice President Dan Quayle. When parting, she said "I'm sure we'll be in power next year". Tsai Ing-wen's confidence is not unfounded. But suppose the Ma government fails to resolve this problem? Once the DPP becomes the ruling party, US pork imports will be its responsibility. When that happens, will Tsai Ing-wen have a better solution than the KMT? Probably not.

In fact, when Tsai Ing-wen visited the US last month, she arranged a secret visit to the US Trade Representative. The visit is rumoured to have been about allowing US pork and beef organ meat imports. Joseph Wu paved the way for Tsai Ing-wen's visit in advance. Tsai may have reached an understanding with the US on the matter. Tsai Ing-wen may have made all sorts of secret commitments to the US. Once in power, she would then agree to allow US pork imports, perhaps in exchange for US support for her cross-Strait policy.

Is Tsai Ing-wen putting on a show of opposing US pork imports, even as she accuses the KMT of ignoring the interests of Taiwan pig farmers? Will she change her tune next year once she is in power? Will she suddenly begin talking about "the greater good" and allow US pork imports? How does the public on Taiwan feel about that? If she repeatedly engages in deceit, how will she maintain the public trust?

In fact, US pork imports is merely an issue the public is familiar with. Given the current state of affairs, politically and economically, many choices must be made between the general interest and special interests. Many issues are unraveling, or await closer scrutiny before the problems become apparent. Amidst the "fog of war", the truth remains hidden. This is why Tsai Ing-wen must come clean on issues she has evaded or concealed. These include the abolition of the death penalty, low wages, inequities in economic restructuring, the STA, the MTA, and pension reform. Currently the Democratic Progressive Party is in the opposition. It bears no responsibility for administration policy. But that does not mean opposition parties can hide their positions. In particular, DPP obstructionism often means they do whatever it takes to achieve their goals. They care nothing about legitimacy or principles. If the Democratic Progressive Party returns to power yet again, people must know whether it has any answers. They must know whether it has any tricks up its sleeve.

The Ma government is afraid to mention US pork imports. That is its chronic weakness. But Tsai Ing-wen has her own calculations. If she is elected president, will she brazenly announce the beginning of US pork imports to Taiwan? If she does, would that not amount to brazen deceit? Many people are currently mocking everything President Ma does. They are hardly about to allow the Ma government to import US pork products. But if the decision to allow US pork imports falls to Tsai Ing-wen, and the public fails to make even a peep, would that not be democracy's greatest irony?

What is Tsai Ing-wen's position on joining the TPP? What is her position on US pork imports? Has she made any secret promises to the United States? Tsai Ing-wen, please tell the public where you stand on these matters, in plain language.

美豬叩關，蔡英文的答案是什麼？

2015-07-23聯合報

經濟部次長卓士昭最近在演講中提到，台灣要加入ＴＰＰ（跨太平洋夥伴協定），一定要開放美國豬肉，美豬雖不好吃，「有騷味」，但可以標示產地，讓消費者決定。但卓士昭次日隨即改口，稱這只是他「個人意見」，若知道那天有記者在場，就不會這麼說了。

卓士昭的惶恐與退縮，不難理解。台灣要加入ＴＰＰ，當然要遵守該組織的相關規範；我方若片面對美豬設限，那麼加入ＴＰＰ的計畫便可能受阻。這是魚與熊掌的問題，必須權衡輕重作出取捨。然而，正當大選當前，執政黨若輕率碰觸這個棘手議題，勢必遭反對黨抹黑，指責政府「不顧農民利益」，豬農也必然接踵上街抗議；如此一來，國民黨已然塗炭的選情就更水深火熱了。卓士昭急急收回自己的話，自是唯恐捅了馬蜂窩。

這項問題，可以從三個方向思考：第一，台灣是不是非加入ＴＰＰ不可？若不加入，我們是不是仍可以在國際競爭中活得很好，無懼威脅？第二，如果非要加入ＴＰＰ不可，那麼在堅持不開放美豬的情況，會不會受到阻撓？有沒有其他蹊徑或巧門可以進入ＴＰＰ？第三，為了維護台灣豬農的利益，是不是犧牲其他產業的利益也無所謂，甚至放棄加入ＴＰＰ？

卓士昭會說出「一定要開放」，顯示馬政府評估過，認為加入ＴＰＰ對台灣的整體利益大於對養豬業的個別衝擊；至於減緩美豬衝擊之道，則可藉「標示產地」的方式，提醒民眾減少購買。同意「開放」，是遵從國際貿易原則；「標示產地」，則是藉消費者力量抑低美豬進口數量，共同支持本土豬農。這樣的思維，堪稱合理；但由於馬政府的畏怯，卻難以付諸行動。然而，更令人好奇的是，民進黨對此將有什麼對策？

蔡英文日前會見美國前副總統奎爾，告別時，她說了一句：「我確信，我們明年會執政。」蔡英文的自信滿滿當然不是全無道理，不過，如果馬政府不處理這個問題，明年一旦政黨輪替，開放美豬進口問題就要落在民進黨手上。屆時，蔡英文能拿出比國民黨更高明的辦法嗎？答案是恐怕未必。

事實上，蔡英文上月的訪美之行，安排了一個訪問美國貿易代表署的祕密行程；據了解，即可能與開放美豬及美牛雜議題有關。在此之前，吳釗燮赴美為蔡英文鋪路，亦與美方就此議題有過默契。簡言之，蔡英文可能就此向美方作過不明形式的承諾，一旦執政，會同意開放美豬進口；甚至可能以此為籌碼，換取美方對她兩岸立場的支持。

在這種情況下，如果蔡英文在國內擺出一副反美豬的姿態，指控國民黨不顧台灣豬農利益；而一旦明年政權到手，她卻可能改口「以大局為重」，親手放行美豬，台灣人民將作何感想？若是如此反反覆覆，表裡不一，她將如何維持自己的公信？

其實，美豬只是社會大眾更耳熟能詳的議題之一，當前國家政經大政中，還有許許多多要在個別群體與社會整體利益之間作出抉擇的事，還有許多必須抽絲剝繭或等待時日檢驗才能見真章的事；但在漫天的政治硝煙中，許多事實真相卻不斷遭到蒙蔽或欺瞞。正因如此，我們認為蔡英文有必要在大選過程中更清楚地說明她一直迴避或企圖隱藏的立場，例如廢死、低薪問題、分配不公、經濟轉型、服貿貨貿、年金改革等。民進黨目前只是在野黨，當然沒有執政責任的問題，但這並不表示在野黨可以不必表示態度；尤其民進黨杯葛政府施政的理由與手段常常無所不用其極，只求達到目的，不問手段與理念之正當。民進黨如果要再執政，民眾必須知道它是否真的胸有成竹，它的袖裡乾坤確實藏有錦囊妙計。

馬政府不敢提開放美豬，那是它懦弱的痼疾；但以蔡英文的盤算，若是她當選總統後大剌剌宣布開放美豬，那難道不是狡詐？目前許多民眾對馬總統一舉一動充滿譏嘲與謾罵，更不可能支持政府開放美豬；但如果開放美豬的決定最後換手由蔡英文拍板，而人們竟然也甘之如飴，這種迷亂狀態，豈不是民主最大的諷刺？

蔡英文對於加入ＴＰＰ的立場如何，對開放美豬等項目的態度如何，是否對美國作過什麼承諾，請坦誠向民眾交代清楚吧！