China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 7, 2015
Executive Summary: Economic prosperity, fiscal responsibility, and abundant energy are the core requirements of long-term national survival. As presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, Tsai Ing-wen must tell voters how she intends to achieve these goals. The DPP has long been anti-business and anti-growth. If Tsai is elected president, what will happen to Taiwan's economic prosperity? How will she reconcile big government and the welfare state with revenues and expenditures? What sort of energy policy will she adopt? Will it meet the needs of individuals and businesses?
Full Text Below:
Economic prosperity, fiscal responsibility, and abundant energy are the core requirements of long-term national survival. As presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, Tsai Ing-wen must tell voters how she intends to achieve these goals. The DPP has long been anti-business and anti-growth. If Tsai is elected president, what will happen to Taiwan's economic prosperity? How will she reconcile big government and the welfare state with revenues and expenditures? What sort of energy policy will she adopt? Will it meet the needs of individuals and businesses?
Consider Tsai Ing-wen's past proposals for Taiwan's economic development. As we have repeatedly seen, they have been to halt cross-Strait economic interaction and oppose economic development. For example, Tsai Ing-wen played a key role in the Sunflower Student Movement, which obstructed passage of the STA and Cross-Strait Trade Agreement Oversight Regulations. Her bottom line? Stop all economic interaction between the two sides of the Strait. Tsai Ing-wen was MAC chairperson under Chen Shui-bian. She told the leaders of Taiwan's wafer industry, including TSMC and UMC, that if they set up factories on the Mainland, "the tiger would gobble up the rabbit". What she meant was that if she allowed them to build plants on the Mainland, she would put two tigers on the Mainland. They might not gobble up Mainland rabbits. But they might well return to Taiwan and gobble up Taiwan rabbits instead.
Taiwan foundries were denied the opportunity to construct fabs on the Mainland. Mainland foundries used the opportunity to establish a foothold. Taiwan foundries lost the opportunity to introduce advanced technology in the Mainland market. Suppose this happened today? Suppose Taiwan companies with advanced technology wanted to build fabs on the Mainland? Would Miss Tsai deny them that right? Would she not invoke the same "tiger gobbles up rabbit" argument to forbid any such business arrangements?
This is Miss Tsai's view of the Mainland market in Taiwan's economic development. This newspaper has commented on the economic relationship between the Mainland and Taiwan in the past. The relationship is not merely a cross-Strait relationship. It is also a relationship betwen two links in the East Asian division of labor chain. Suppose we hinder economic relations between Taiwan and the Mainland? Suppose we compell Taiwan companies to withdraw from the East Asian supply chain? What will the consequences be? The Mainland and South Korea have just signed an FTA. What will Taiwan do now?
If Tsai is elected president, will she promote the MTA? Will she sign the STA? If not, she must answer the following question. Taiwan's role in the East Asian supply chain is threatened by South Korea. What will become of Taiwan's economy? Miss Tsai says she champions innovation. She says she champions science parks that stress quality, not quantity. But these are mere slogans. Once European and American manufacturers have placed their orders, the mobilization of the East Asian supply chain remains a hard reality. With what will Miss Tsai replace this mobilization of investment and employment?
Consider fiscal responsibility. Tsai Ing-wen has repeatedly mentioned the seriousness of Taiwan's fiscal problems. These include a low tax to GDP ratio, and huge potential liabilities. Yet Tsai Ing-wen proposes even more generous social welfare policies. They include annuities and long-term health care. Does Miss Tsai care to tell us where the money will come from?
Tsai Ing-wen proposes an increase in inheritance taxes. But surely her aides have told her about Taiwan's extremely high "sudden death tax"? Unless a person dies suddenly, without warning, the government has a hard time collecting these taxes. Many people skillfully transfer their wealth overseas. In 2009, the government cut inheritance taxes. The next year taxes not only did not diminish, they increased. Suppose we want to improve the inheritance tax? How will we prevent the rich from transferring their wealth abroad? Will government revenue increase or decrease?
The third requirement is abundant energy. Tsai Ing-wen's position on this matter is very clear. It is to scrap nuclear power generation. If she scraps nuclear power generation, what does she intend to replace it with? Tsai Ing-wen, accompanied by DPP city mayors and county chiefs, told reporters she would conserve enough electricity to avoid the need for another nuclear power plant. But how will cities and counties reduce their electricity usage? Holding press conferences and making empty promises is easy. Governing a nation is hard. If one cannot cut electricity consumption sufficiently, how will the electricity shortfall be made up?
Tsai Ing-wen opposes the Number Four Nuclear Power Plant. She opposes bituminous coal power generation. She champions the aggressive development of renewable energy sources, mainly solar and wind. But are these energy sources really suitable for Taiwan? Take wind power, for example, Does Tsai know that wind power has serious environmental drawbacks? Does she know that almost every new wind farm faces protests by nearby residents?
Furthermore, renewable energy is very expensive. It is several times the cost of current electricity. How does Miss Tsai intend to combat electricity rate hikes? Is Miss Tsai willing to pledge that in order to achieve her non-nuclear homeland, she will increase electricty rates several hundred percent in the event she is elected? In 2013 Spain suffered a debt crisis. One reason the government nearly went bankrupt was excessive subsidies to solar power. The government eventually collapsed anyway. If electricity rates are not hiked, how can Taiwan avoid following in Spain's footsteps?
When Tsai Ing-wen visited business groups, the business community raised these very concerns. But Tsai Ing-wen has yet to respond. Economic prosperity, fiscal responsibility, and abundant energy are the pillars of Taiwan's future. People's lives depend upon them. A presidential candidate has no room for equivocation on these matter. Tsai Ing-wen may not evade them. She must tell voters clearly and explicitly what she intends to do.
蔡英文必須說清楚的事 －拒兩岸、反核、要社福 生活如何更好
經濟、財政和能源是一個國家長期發展的支柱，
檢視過去蔡英文對台灣經濟發展的主張，我們一再看到的，
後來晶圓廠沒有去大陸設廠，大陸本土的晶圓廠就順勢興起了，
這牽涉到蔡女士對於大陸市場在台灣經濟發展中所扮演角色的基本看
如果您當選總統，請問您要不要推動兩岸簽訂貨品貿易協議？
在財政方面，蔡英文好幾次提出台灣財政問題的嚴重性，
蔡英文提過要增加遺贈稅，但相信幕僚已經告訴過您，
第三個很重要的策略是能源，這方面蔡英文的立場非常清楚，
蔡英文反核四、反生煤發電，主張大力發展再生能源，
另外，再生能源非常貴，是現在成本的好幾倍，請問電費要不要漲？
蔡英文在走訪工商團體時，企業界曾經針對這些疑慮提出詢問，
No comments:
Post a Comment