China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
March 9, 2016
Executive Summary: It is time for President-elect Tsai Ing-wen to awaken from her dream. It is time for green camp supporters to abandon their unrealistic fantasies and face reality. May 20, inauguration day, is only two months away. Tsai Ing-wen must behave responsibly. She must tell her supporters the truth. The DPP can persuade the CCP to accept it. But if the DPP refuses to change its cross-Strait policy, Taiwan's 23 million people will be the ones who suffer. During her inaugural address, Tsai must shine a light on cross-Strait relations.
Full Text Below:
It is time for President-elect Tsai Ing-wen to awaken from her dream. It is time for green camp supporters to abandon their unrealistic fantasies and face reality. May 20, inauguration day, is only two months away. Tsai Ing-wen must behave responsibly. She must tell her supporters the truth. The DPP can persuade the CCP to accept it. But if the DPP refuses to change its cross-Strait policy, Taiwan's 23 million people will be the ones who suffer. During her inaugural address, Tsai must shine a light on cross-Strait relations.
After its defeat in the 2012 presidential election, the DPP reviewed its cross-Strait policy. It determined that the key to victory was the final mile. The party began modifying its cross-Strait policy. Some called for freezing the Taiwan independence party platform. But all these demands were shelved by Tsai Ing-wen.
Following the Sunflower Student movement, Tsai Ing-wen told Commonwealth magazine that as long as the DPP emerges victorious in the 2014 nine in one elections, "Even [Mainland] China will accommodate the DPP". Reality shows that even though the DPP routed the KMT in the nine in one elections, the CCP did not throw open its doors to the DPP.
Tsai Ing-wen did not mind of course. Even though the DPP refused to change its cross-Strait policy platform, it won the presidential and legislative elections anyway, and now enjoys “total government”. Tsai Ing-wen remains indifferent to cross-Strait policy. She refuses to recognize the 1992 Consensus. She is willing only to admit the historical fact that a consensus was reached in 1992. She evades any discussion of the significance of that consensus. She clings to her dream that as long as she wins the election, the CCP will accommodate the DPP.
Objective reality is not going to change to conform to our subjective desires. Tsai Ing-wen's subjective fantasies have been shattered. During a visit to the United States, Mainland Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke of “constitutionalism”. Tsai concluded that the Mainland was changing its Taiwan policy in response to the DPP election victory. This revived the fantasy that as long as the DPP won the election, the CCP would see things its way. This dream was short-lived, as the Mainland soon made clear.
On March 5, Mainland supreme leader Xi Jinping attended the Shanghai People's Congress. Xi said "Our Taiwan policy is clear and consistent. It will not change because the political situation on Taiwan changes". Xi said "Recognize the historical fact of the 1992 Consensus, recognize its core meaning. The two sides will then have a common political basis, one that can ensure positive interaction". Beijing has said these words before. But Xi said them right after the general election on Taiwan. It was the first time Xi Jinping publicly addressed cross-Strait relations. It was the Mainland's definitive response to the election results on Taiwan.
In other words, the DPP may score successive victories in the nine in one local government elections and the two in one central government elections. It may enjoy “total government”. But none of that matters. As Xi Jinping made clear, Beijing's basic policy toward Taiwan will not change. The 1992 Consensus means that Taiwan and the Mainland are both part of one China. That will remain their shared political foundation. Tsai Ing-wen fantasized that as long as the DPP won the election, Beijing would see things their way. That dream has been totally shattered.
Mainland policy toward Taiwan opposes Taiwan independence and “one China, one Taiwan”. It insists on “two sides, one China”. It insists that cross-Strait relations are not international relations. No matter how Taiwan's political situation evolves, Beijing will not waver. If the DPP refuses to change its cross-Strait policy, then cross-Strait relations after 5/20 will definitely be worse. Maintaining the status quo will be impossible.
But a crisis is also an opportunity. The CCP's basic policy toward Taiwan will never change. But its leaders' style is not necessarily static. They may show some flexibility. As long as the two sides can establish mutual trust, they can establish a win-win situation. This is especially true of Xi Jinping, a fifth-generation leader whose door is always open. In fact, this represents a golden opportunity for cross-Strait relations.
In the past, the heads of the Taiwan Affairs Office and Mainland Affairs Council could not address each other by their official titles. When ARATS Chairman Chen Yunlin visited Taiwan, he repeatedly addressed MAC Chairwoman Lai Shin-yuan as "you" or "Shin-yuan", not "Chairman".
This was perceived as a major obstacle to cross-Strait relations, one difficult to overcome. But once Xi Jinping was in power, the other side was willing to address the MAC Chairwoman by her official title. This was entirely unexpected. Soon afterwards the Taiwan Affairs Office and the Mainland Affairs Council established a hotline.
Leaders from the two sides tried to meet when Jiang Zemin and Lee Teng-hui were in office. But the Mainland considered the international situation highly problematic. At one time rumors emerged claiming that Lee and Jiang would meet on a ship in the middle of the Taiwan Strait.
Last year Xi Jinping agreed to meet Ma Ying-jeou in Singapore. For Xi, this constituted a major breakthrough. Singapore was viewed as a third locale, rather than an “international venue”. This was only possible because Xi was willing to throw open the doors to Taiwan.
Measures to facilitate cross-Strait, people to people exchanges played a part. Many have wanted visits to the Mainland from Taiwan to be like going home, with no need to obtain visas.
Xi Jinping listened to these voices. He then proclaimed "two sides, one family”. Xi Jinping had the courage to implement a visa-free policy for Taiwan compatriots. This revealed Xi Jinping's character, his willingness to throw the doors wide open.
President elect Tsai Ing-wen and her supporters must not fly into fits of apoplexy upon seeing their dream shattered. They must adopt a pragmatic attitude. During the 5/20 inaugural speech, Tsai Ing-wen must exercise wisdom. She must affirm the core meaning of the 1992 Consensus. She must acknowledge that both sides of the Strait are part of one China, and that cross-Strait relations are not international relations. She must respond in good faith. Xi Jinping flung the doors open to cross-Strait relations. She must shine a light on this development, and become a force for political progress rather than political reaction.
也是綠營支持者拋棄不切實際幻想，面對現實的時候了。 到五二０還有兩個多月的時間， 蔡英文應該負責任地清楚告訴支持者，要讓中共靠向民進黨， 不可能就是不可能，民進黨若不調整兩岸政策， 受害的是全體台灣兩千三百萬人， 就職演說一定要努力點亮兩岸關係。
民進黨曾檢討兩岸政策是民進黨重返執行的關鍵及最後一哩路， 黨內一度有調整兩岸政策，凍結台獨黨綱的聲音出現， 但是這些主張全被蔡英文束之高閣。
14年的九合一大選，「連中國都會朝民進黨方向來調整。」 但事實證明，民進黨在九合一大選中狂勝， 並沒有為民共對話打開大門。
還是在總統與立法委員選舉中大勝，取得完全執政權， 蔡英文在兩岸政策上更為無動於衷，始終不認同接受九二共識， 只願承認九二共識的歷史事實，避而不談九二共識的一中內涵， 多少還存在著只要打贏選戰，中共就會向民進黨方向來調整的夢想。
大陸外交部長王毅在美國提及「憲法說」， 曾一度被外界解讀為大陸對台政策因民進黨勝選而有所調整， 又勾起民進黨打贏選戰中共就會靠向民進黨的夢想。 但這夢想只是曇花一現，大陸立即做出澄清。
明確強調，「對台大政方針是明確的、一貫的， 不會因台灣政局變化而改變。」「承認九二共識的歷史事實， 認同其核心意涵，兩岸雙方就有了共同政治基礎， 就可以保持良性互動。」這些話大陸方面其實都說過， 但這是台灣大選之後，習近平首度針對兩岸關係的公開談話， 等於是大陸對台灣選舉結果的結論性回應。
即使民進黨在九合一的地方選舉及二合一的中央選舉連戰皆捷， 取得全面執政，習近平表明了大陸的對台大政方針不會因此而改變， 九二共識的核心內涵（台灣和大陸同屬一個中國）， 還是兩岸的共同政治基礎。 到此蔡英文的只要打贏選戰中共就會靠向民進黨的夢想已確定完全破 滅。
堅持兩岸一中、堅持兩岸不是國與國關係， 不管台灣政局怎麼演變是不會動搖改變的。民進黨不調整兩岸政策， 五二○之後兩岸關係絕對會變壞，是不可能維持現狀的。
但是政策靈活度和最高領導人的作風並非一成不變， 兩岸只要建立起互信，還是可以創造雙贏， 尤其是中共第五代領導人習近平大開大闔的作風， 其實是兩岸關係的大好機遇。
要務實調整自己，在五二○就職演說中展現智慧， 正視九二共識的核心內涵，對兩岸同屬一中、 兩岸非國與國關係作出善意的回應，以習近平大開大闔的作風， 兩岸關係會成為點亮台灣的助力而非阻力。