Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Both Sides Must Demonstrate Greater Goodwill

Both Sides Must Demonstrate Greater Goodwill
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 23, 2016


Executive Summary: During an interview with this newspaper, Tsai Ing-wen addressed the Mainland, saying she hoped it would demonstrate greater goodwill toward Taiwan. She said the two sides should increase mutual trust by a show of goodwill, before May 20. Tsai appears to realize the importance of mutual trust and goodwill in cross-Strait relations. The Ma government maintained successful cross-Strait relations for eight years by recognizing the 1992 Consensus and avoiding provocative behavior. By understanding the requirements for cross-Strait cooperation, the Ma government and the Mainland gradually increased mutual understanding and trust. This enabled exchanges to be held on higher and higher levels, and eventually made the successful Ma Xi summit possible.

Full Text Below:

During an interview with this newspaper, Tsai Ing-wen addressed the Mainland, saying she hoped it would demonstrate greater goodwill toward Taiwan. She said the two sides should increase mutual trust by a show of goodwill, before May 20. Tsai appears to realize the importance of mutual trust and goodwill in cross-Strait relations. The Ma government maintained successful cross-Strait relations for eight years by recognizing the 1992 Consensus and avoiding provocative behavior. By understanding the requirements for cross-Strait cooperation, the Ma government and the Mainland gradually increased mutual understanding and trust. This enabled exchanges to be held on higher and higher levels, and eventually made the successful Ma Xi summit possible.

But goodwill is more than mere lip service. The Ma government's experience should serve as a lesson for Tsai Ing-wen. If she genuinely wishes to make a gesture of goodwill toward the Mainland, she must focus on the Mainland's core concern – the 1992 Consensus. The Ma government's clear recognition of the 1992 Consensus was precisely the right response to the Mainland's policy expectations. The full implementation of direct links, of a diplomatic truce, of Mainland tourism and Mainland exchange student programs, were all gestures of goodwill based on these expectations. The Mainland reciprocated, offering generous concessions to Taiwan. It relaxed restrictions on Taiwan's participation in international organizations and the signing of free trade agreements with other countries. The Mainland refrained from establishing diplomatic relations with many of Taiwan's diplomatic allies out of consideration for the Ma government. Can Tsai Ing-wen's new government achieve the same level of cross-Strait relations as the Ma government? That is highly doubtful. The reason is a lack of mutual trust, especially since Tsai Ing-wen obstinately refuses to issue a clear statement addressing the Mainland's chief concern.

Tsai Ing-wen and the Mainland have been gradually narrowing the gap between them. The Mainland issued strong statements, both before and after the election. But during two party sessions this year, Mainland leader Xi Jinping reaffirmed the party's intention to promote peaceful cross-Strait relations. This would not change in response to internal political changes on Taiwan. Not only that, he pledged to increase cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation in a number of areas, in order to increase cross-Strait economic and social integration, to ensure the welfare of compatriots, to bring them closer, and to increase their sense of shared destiny. Despite radical rhetoric emerging from among the public, Mainland officials have yet to criticize the new government. Instead, they have merely expressed hopes. Resumption of diplomatic relations between the Mainland and Gambia is widely viewed as mild pressure on Tsai Ing-wen. But the Mainland's Taiwan Affairs Office and Ministry of Foreign Affairs have stated that the Mainland's policy of peaceful cross-Strait relations remains unchanged. The Mainland apparently hopes the event will not be blown out of proportion, and undermine overall cross-Strait relations. Also, the Mainland military has refrained from commenting on the cross-Strait situation. The Mainland clearly has no intention of getting tough with Taiwan. These moves are Mainland expressions of goodwill toward the new government. Their intent is to ensure friendly cross-Strait interactions. Tsai Ing-wen has called on the Mainland to demonstrate goodwill. She needs to appreciate these expressions of goodwill from the Mainland, and reciprocate with enthusiasm.

Tsai Ing-wen has responded positively to the core concerns of the Mainland on two occasions. While visiting the US, she pledged to promote peaceful and stable cross-Strait relations under the Republic of China's existing constitutional framework. She pledged to build on the foundation of 20 years of negotiations and interactions. Upon winning the election, Tsai said she understands and respects the fact that in 1992, ARATS and the SEF held talks, during which the two sides sought common ground. This brought her a step closer to the Mainland's insistence on the 1992 Consensus. That said, Tsai Ing-wen and the Mainland remain far apart. The Mainland is not merely talking about acknowledging the fact of the 1992 Consensus, but of accepting its core meaning.

Nor is that all. Tsai Ing-wen has underscored the importance of public opinion on Taiwan. Perhaps in her mind, the election results amount to a vote of no confidence in the Ma government's cross-Strait policy. Perhaps they represent an attitude of defiance toward the Mainland. Tsai may think public opinion on Taiwan can serve as a shield against the Mainland.  She may think she can use this to force the Mainland to accept her position. But she has clearly underestimated the Mainland's iron will. She has misjudged public opinion on Taiwan as well. The public on Taiwan may may object to certain aspects of cross-Strait exchanges. But that does not mean it wants the new government to set cross-Strait relations back to what they once were. For most people, continued normal cross-Strait relations remain indispensable.

Therefore, Tsai Ing-wen must re-examine her hostility toward the Mainland. She must avoid strategic miscalculations. She must think hard about what the public on Taiwan can accept. The Mainland must understand cross-Strait policy rhetoric. Only then can it demonstrate genuine goodwill. We naturally understand Tsai Ing-wen's resistance to the 1992 Consensus. We realize Tsai Ing-wen must cope with pressure from both inside and outside the party.  Publicly accepting the One China Principle does indeed present practical difficulties. Tsai may wish to start from the periphery, and show her eagerness to address the Mainland's concerns.

She could, for example, call for a freeze on the expression of Taiwan independence political attitudes in the forthcoming party congress. She could call for a resolution in the legislature, promoting peaceful cross-Strait relations under the existing Republic of China constitutional framework. She could call for a new government policy path, based on the rule of law. She could regulate the behavior of party legislators. She could call on them to reduce rhetorical attacks on the Mainland, or even rethink their Chinese identity. These would demonstrate goodwill toward the Mainland. If Tsai can do these, we believe the Mainland would respond in kind. 

兩岸都需要釋放更多善意
20160323 中國時報

蔡英文接受本報專訪時向大陸喊話,希望對岸釋放更多善意,並表示520之前兩岸應該透過互釋善意來累積信賴。看得出來,蔡英文意識到善意和互信在兩岸交流進程中的重要性,馬政府8年之所以能在兩岸關係上取得巨大成就,除了承認九二共識這一基本前提外,也是因為在與大陸互動過程中做到了不挑釁、重合作的行為要求,在不斷的兩岸互動過程中,馬政府與大陸方面不斷累積互信和默契,這才有了後續交流層級的不斷提升,直至馬習會的成功舉行。

但善意絕不是嘴上說說那麼簡單,馬政府的經驗提醒蔡英文,要對大陸釋放善意,就應關注大陸的核心關切,馬政府堅持九二共識恰恰是對大陸對台政策底線的積極回應。而全面開放三通、外交休兵、開放陸客陸生等政策,則是在此基礎上的進一步善意舉動。對此大陸也投桃報李,不僅積極對台讓利,而且放鬆對台灣參與國際組織以及與別國簽訂自貿協定的限制,面對台灣許多邦交國的建交要求,大陸也都考量與馬政府的友善關係而婉拒。展望未來,蔡英文的新政府能否達到馬政府時期的兩岸關係高度,恐怕要打上問號,其原因正在於雙方互信不足,而蔡英文也遲未就大陸的核心關切表達明確接受的訊息。

當然蔡英文與大陸彼此間的立場落差已逐步縮小,雖然選前、選後大陸對台系統多有強硬言論,但在今年兩會上,大陸領導人習近平還是宣示將繼續推動兩岸關係和平發展,不會因台灣內部政局變化而改變。不僅如此,他進一步提出持續推進兩岸各領域交流合作,深化兩岸經濟社會融合發展,增進同胞親情福祉,拉近同胞心靈距離,增強對命運共同體的認知。拋開民間的許多激進論述來看,大陸官方對新政府始終未展示批評態度,而是更多的表達期許。陸甘復交事件雖然被普遍視為對蔡英文的輕度施壓,但大陸外交部和國台辦也都在第一時間表態推動兩岸關係和平發展的方針不變,顯然是希望這一事件不要被擴大解讀,避免影響兩岸關係的大局。另外,大陸軍方一直都未對兩岸局勢發表意見,顯示大陸官方並不會以強硬手段對台施壓。大陸的這些動作其實都在對新政府釋放善意,為未來兩岸的互動營造友善氛圍。要求大陸釋放善意的蔡英文,應對大陸這些善意舉動有更明確的感知,並給予積極回應。

蔡英文針對大陸的核心關切主要在兩個場合做了正面表態,先前在美國她明確表示將在中華民國現行憲政體制下,在20多年來協商與交流互動所累積的成果基礎上,依循普遍民意,持續推動兩岸關係的和平穩
定發展。勝選之後蔡英文進一步表示,她理解和尊重1992年兩岸兩會會談的歷史事實以及雙方求同存異的共同認知,這等於進一步趨近大陸對九二共識的原則堅持。但是,蔡英文的這一系列趨近動作畢竟跟大陸的要求還有一段距離,大陸的態度是,不能只承認九二共識的歷史事實,更應接受其核心意涵。

不僅如此,蔡英文著重強調台灣民意的重要性,或許在她看來,今年的大選結果表達了對馬政府兩岸政策的不信任,也表達了對大陸的抗拒態度,因此台灣民意可以成為她拒不接受大陸要求的擋箭牌,可以以此來迫使大陸接受她的主張。但這顯然低估了大陸對一中原則的堅定意志,也錯估了台灣的民意態度。台灣民眾對兩岸交流的現狀有不滿意見的表達,並不等於希望兩岸關係因為新政府的上台出現倒退,對大多數人來說,延續兩岸關係的正常發展趨勢仍是當前非常重要的課題。

因此,蔡英文必須重新審視自己對大陸的消極態度,避免戰略誤判,積極思考台灣內部民意可以接受,而大陸也能理解與認可的兩岸政策論述,如此才是對大陸真正釋放善意。當然,我們也理解蔡英文對「九二共識」的抗拒態度,也清楚地表白蔡英文所要面對的黨內、黨外壓力,公開接受一中原則也確有現實困難,那蔡英文不妨先從周邊做起,向大陸釋放解決問題的積極態度。

譬如,可以在即將舉行的黨代會上推動新決議文的通過,表達凍獨的政治態度。或在立法院推動通過主決議文,宣示在中華民國現行憲政體制下推動兩岸關係和平發展,從法治角度確立未來新政府的施政方向。除此之外,如能規範黨籍立委的行為,減少對大陸的攻擊言論,甚至重新思考情感上的中國人認同,這些都可向大陸展現善意,如果蔡英文能做到,相信大陸將回以善意。


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