No Increase in Electricity Rates for Ten Years: A Red Herring

No Increase in Electricity Rates for Ten Years: A Red Herring
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 11, 2016

Executive Summary: When President Ma raised gasoline prices and electricity rates, he provoked widespread public resentment. The DPP is afraid of making the same mistake. Electricity rates have a major impact on our livelihood. They must be handled with care. The declaration that "Electricity rates will not increase for 10 years" is a red herring, one that could stand in the way of long-term energy development on Taiwan. Tsai Ing-wen's energy policy must be pragmatic. She must not fail to see the forest for the trees.

Full Text Below:

During Tsai Ing-wen's recent "Tour of Industry", she said that in her estimation “There is no possibility of a major increase [in electricity rates for ten years]”.  This is a far cry from ringing campaign declaration that "Electricity rates will not increase for ten years". When questioned, Tsai said she did not blame the media for oversimplifying her electricity rate policy. She assured them that the DPP has a comprehensive electricity rate strategy.

During her presidential campaign, Tsai Ing-wen set forth a number of policy programs. But few rivals challenged them. They were being cautious. Tsai seldom proposes any policy about which she is uncertain. But many challenged Tsai Ing-wen's energy policies. In particular, they challenged her proposal to increase green energy production to 50 billion kWh within ten years. Her promise to “surpass Japan and catch up to Germany” aroused considerable skepticism. Criticisms that her green energy policy would lead to massive increases in electricity rates forced her to promise that "Electricity rates will not increase for ten years".

Tsai has gone from promising that "Electricity rates will not increase for ten years”, to “Electricity rates will not increase by much in ten years”. Clearly her promises were nothing but campaign rhetoric. The issue for her is not preventing rate increases, but appeasing voters. The media quoted Tsai Ing-wen as saying “Electricity rates will not increase for ten years”. She says the media oversimplified her position. But reports that electricity rates would not increase if the DPP won impressed voters. Therefore when Tsai changes her tune, from "no increase" to "no major increase", people naturally reach for their magnifying glasses.

Tsai Ing-wen promised no major electricity rate increases for ten years. She gave three reasons. One. Energy-saving measures will mitigate the need for electricity. Two. Green energy prices are high, but costs will fall in the future. Three. The DPP will amend the "Electrical Power Industry Act" and promote separation of the power grid. This will increase Taipower business efficiency, make electrical power generation more transparent, and prices more reasonable.

None of this will be as easy as Tsai Ing-wen imagines. One. Energy-saving measures may let people use less electricity, but they may not prevent unit cost from rising. Imported energy accounts for as much as 98% of Taiwan's energy capacity. Energy prices on Taiwan may be out of our hands.

Taipower has decided to lower electricity rates this April. It has reduced electricity rates three times over the past year, all because prices for imported coal and natural gas have fallen. Electricity rates can fall repeatedly because nearly 80% of our electricity is generated thermally. Over the past few years, fuel prices have fluctuated greatly. Oil prices could climb to nearly 50 dollars per barrel. They could also drop to less than 30 dollars a barrel. With such drastic price fluctuations, how can the DPP possibly guarantee domestic rates will not rise?

Two. Capital costs for green power generation will fall as the technology matures and market penetration increases. This is a mega trend. But development of green energy on Taiwan is limited by natural conditions. This is something for which the DPP can offer no solution. The northern part of the island will experience electricity shortages when the sun fails to shine. The terrain is unfavorable to development of solar energy. There is no power shortage in winter, but that is the peak season for wind power. Last year, our renewable energy capacity accounted for 7.7% of Taipower's system. But actual Taipower generating capacity was limited to 2.8%. Take "power generation" and "actual scheduling". Renewable energy cannot achieve the same base load power scheduling as nuclear energy and thermal energy.

Tsai Ing-wen proposes to make Taiwan a “nuclear free homeland” by 2025. But given the pace of domestic green energy development, replacing nuclear energy in the short term is impossible. Even Germany and Japan cannot do it. How can Taiwan? Compare possible development routes. Substituting thermal power may be feasible. In the run up to 2019, new units will begin operation in Linkou, Daelim, and other locations. These can compensate for the decommissioning of the Number One Nuclear Plant. But carbon emissions from thermal power will undermine Taiwan's efforts to reduce carbon emissions and air pollution harmful to people's health.

Given current domestic and international energy supply, Taiwan may not endure rate increases or lack electricity in the short term. But energy policy requires three to five year development plans, not short-term speculation. Recently, while examining a hydrogen powered car, Tsai immediately exclaimed, "Hydrogen energy is Taiwan's choice for strategic energy transformation!" In fact, Taiwan has yet to map out its path for denuclearization. Yet Tsai Ing-wen is already talking about developing hydrogen energy. This is like expecting a toddler just learning to walk, to take part in a hundred meter dash. How can anyone believe any of this?

When President Ma raised gasoline prices and electricity rates, he provoked widespread public resentment. The DPP is afraid of making the same mistake. Electricity rates have a major impact on our livelihood. They must be handled with care. The declaration that "Electricity rates will not increase for 10 years" is a red herring, one that could stand in the way of long-term energy development on Taiwan. Tsai Ing-wen's energy policy must be pragmatic. She must not fail to see the forest for the trees.

「十年電價不漲」是假議題
2016-03-11 聯合報

蔡英文在其「產業之旅」中說，電價在我們預估的十年內「不會有大幅上漲的可能」；這與先前她在大選期間承諾選民「十年電價不漲」的印象頗有落差，因而遭外界質疑。蔡英文坦言，她不怪媒體過度簡化其電價政策，唯強調民進黨的電價策略有完整思考。

蔡英文在大選期間提出許多政見，卻少見對手挑戰，這多少與其謹慎的個性有關，她甚少提出自己毫無把握的主張。但在能源政策上，蔡英文受到各方的挑戰卻不小。尤其，她提出十年要推升綠能發電到五百億度的「超日趕德」野心，質疑聲浪很大，這又間接迫使她提出「十年電價不漲」的論調，以反駁外界指她發展綠能將導致電價大漲的批評。

從「十年電價不漲」修正為「十年電價不大漲」，說明這只是選舉語言；重點不在如何「不漲」，而在如何打動選民。蔡英文說，「十年電價不漲」是媒體過度簡化之詞；但就競選效果看，民進黨執政後「不漲電價」的印象已深印民心。因此，當蔡英文改口，說「不漲」其實是「不大漲」，外界自然要用放大鏡檢視。

蔡英文說，她對十年內電價不會大幅上漲有把握，是基於三個理由：一是落實節能，就不需要繳那麼多的電費；二是綠能價格現在雖高，但未來成本會降；三是民進黨要修《電業法》，推動電網分離，提高台電營業效率，電價會更透明合理。

這些理由，從現實面檢視，恐怕未必如蔡英文說的輕鬆。首先，落實節能可以讓民眾使用的電量減少，卻未必能使單位電價不漲。以台灣進口能源占總九十八％的高水位，台灣能源價格漲與不漲完全不操之在我。

包括台電決定今年四月降電價在內，過去一年台灣電價連三降，都是因為進口煤炭與天然氣價格大跌所致；而我國火力發電比重將近八成，電價才有連降空間。過去幾年國際燃料價格波動極大，油價可以攀升到每桶近一五○美元的天價，也可以跌至不及卅美元一桶；以如此大的變動，民進黨如何保證國內電價一定不大漲？

其次，綠能發電成本將隨著技術成熟與普及率提升而走低，這是大趨勢；問題在，台灣天然條件上發展綠能之限制，民進黨至今無解。諸如：缺電的北部日照天數不足，土地因素不利發展太陽能；不缺電的冬天，卻是風力發電的高峰。去年我國再生能源系統裝置容量占台電系統的七．七％，但實際發電量卻只占台電總發電量的二．八％，原因在此。就「發電」與「實際調度」而言，再生能源並無法達到如核能、火力等基載電力般的調度效率。

蔡英文主張台灣要在二○二五年成為「非核家園」，但以目前國內綠能發展的速度，要在短期內取代核能，連德國、日本都辦不到，台灣豈有可能？比較可能的途徑，還是用火力取代或作為過渡。國內林口、大林等新火力機組將在二○一九年前陸續上線，可彌補核一等核電廠除役的空缺；但火力發電的碳排放將影響台灣的減碳努力，其空汙隱憂也可能損害國人健康。

從當前國內供電情勢與國際能源價格走勢看，在短期內，台灣確實有可能「電價不大漲，也不會缺電」。然而，能源政策是國家三、五十年的發展大計，不能一味炒短線。日前蔡英文參訪氫能汽車，立刻喊出「氫能是台灣能源轉型的戰略選項」；事實上，台灣連廢核路徑都沒畫好，就要跳到發展氫能，這無異奢談要正在學步的嬰孩去跑百米，如何讓民眾信服？

馬總統任內因油電雙漲政策引發民怨，民進黨因而戒慎恐懼，唯恐重蹈覆轍。電價是關係民生之大事，確應謹慎處理，但一味在「十年不漲電價」的假議題中糾纏，反而可能錯失台灣長期能源發展的規畫契機。蔡英文在能源政策上必須務實，千萬不要見樹不見林。