United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 31, 2016
Executive Summary: Chen Shui-bian rejected the 1992 Consensus. That was when his troubles and loss of political support began. Tsai Ing-wen must not repeat the same mistake. She has already acknowledged the historical fact that an agreement was reached in 1992. So why persist in self-deception and blank out the historical fact of the 1992 Communique? Tsai Ing-wen is billing herself as a "problem solver". So why not hold high the communique, acknowledge the existence of the communique, and allow Beijing to withdraw its ultimatum?
Full Text Below:
The Taiwan Affairs Office and ARATS have both declared that without the 1992 Consensus, they can no longer conduct with business as usual, therefore cross-Strait communication and negotiation channels have now been suspended. This state of affairs, if ignored, will inevitably render the channels null and void. Once that happens, mutual suspicions arising from insufficient information will make saving the nation ever more difficult. Tsai Ing-wen will spend her term of office in an atmosphere of paranoia. Does Tsai Ing-wen really want matters to come to this? If not, she had better think twice.
A festive inauguration ceremony may be able to project a false image of calm. Tsai Ing-wen may think her 1992 Consensus double talk will allow business as usual, and allow her to plan her next move at leisure. She may think she will be able to turn in a respectable report card at the end of her four-year term. But the current situation is truly bizzare. Tsai Ing-wen appears to have made up her mind. No matter which way the wind blows, she has apparently decided to ignore Beijing's ultimatum regarding the 1992 Consensus.
But the new government is overplaying its hand. Taiwan's economy cannot withstand further turmoil. In any political confrontation, the loser will inevitably be the DPP, and the people of Taiwan will be the ones who pay the price.
Two days before Tsai Ing-wen's inauguration, the Mainland Ministry of Commerce announced its first quarter cross-Strait trade data. Taiwan exports to the Mainland fell by 11.7%. The bad news did not begin now. Last year Taiwan exports to the Mainland declined by 12.4% over the previous year. By contrast, the Mainland's total exports last year declined by only 1.8% over the previous year. Over the past year, Taiwan's exports to the Mainland have suffered a double-digit decline. The main reason is that the Mainland's red supply chain has gradually taken shape. Past projects on the Mainland relied on imports from Taiwan. Today the Mainland relies on its own industrial capacity.
Tsai Ing-wen wallows in Schadenfreude. She pictures herself taking advantage of this trend to end dependence on the Mainland. She yearns to for US and European markets, and hopes to implement her New Southern Strategy. Last year Taiwan's exports to the ten countries of ASEAN declined 14.2%, even more than exports to the Mainland. Exports to Europe declined 10.9%. Taiwan's economic problems, which the DPP wrongly attributes to “over-reliance on the Mainland”, are actually due to Taiwan's inadequate innovation and competitiveness.
The very first question that Tsai Ing-wen should ask is: If cross-Strait political trust is lost, and Taiwan's largest trading partner imposes economic sanctions in retaliation, can Taiwan really reverse its perilous decline?
Beijing's ultimatum, and the subsequent press conferences are revealing. If Tsai Ing-wen remains arrogant and continues to ignore Beijing, all cross-Strait communications and negotiation channels will be shut down. All official contacts, even hotlines, will be shut down. The cessation of communications and negotiations will not be limited to the two major associations. The Economic Cooperation Meetings under ECFA, along with over 20 other agreements will be null and void, and other minor associations will probably close up shop.
If this happens, Taiwan's "orphaned island syndrome" will immediately kick in. Six years ago, when Tsai Ing-wen debated Ma Ying-jeou, she proposed "connecting with the world before connecting with China [the Mainland]”. But today's China is not yesterday's China. Refusing to recognize the 1992 Consensus does more than ignore the Mainland. It also ignores the RCEP, which impacts Tsai's New Southern Strategy. As for the TPP, the presidential candidates of the two major parties in the United States have stated their opposition. The TPP's prospects are not bright. In time Tsai Ing-wen may regret not pragmatically accepting the 1992 Consensus. But by then it will be too late.
Tsai Ing-wen trotted out her ROC Constitution double talk. Yet less than 24 hours later, Beijing issued its ultimatum. Clearly it has no hesitation about allowing a new freeze in cross-Strait relations. This of course is a reflection of Xi Jinping's tough style. Eight years of generous concessions, and all Beijing got for its trouble was a rising tide of Taiwan independence sentiment. Beijing is now resentful and wary. It would just as soon dig in its heels, and is in no mood to make further concessions.
Beijing's ultimatum is actually nostalgia for the past. Xi Jinping went to Singapore and met with Ma Ying-jeou, all for the sake of the 1992 Consensus. He did not do this to oppose Tsai Ing-wen. The precondition was that the two sides' political foundation must be sufficiently sound. From that perspective, the ultimatum may loom, but it is clearly well-intentioned.
Chen Shui-bian rejected the 1992 Consensus. That was when his troubles and loss of political support began. Tsai Ing-wen must not repeat the same mistake. She has already acknowledged the historical fact that an agreement was reached in 1992. So why persist in self-deception and blank out the historical fact of the 1992 Communique? Tsai Ing-wen is billing herself as a "problem solver". So why not hold high the communique, acknowledge the existence of the communique, and allow Beijing to withdraw its ultimatum?
聯合／以「九二函電」解除最後通牒
2016-05-31 01:23 聯合報 聯合報社論
兩岸聯繫與協商管道，在國台辦與海協會雙雙發表一段無「九二共識」不能存續的聲明後，已處於空懸的狀態。對這個空懸狀態，如果置若罔聞，勢必日漸荒圮；屆時，兩岸的猜忌與隔膜恐怕就再難以匡復，蔡英文的任期也將在風聲鶴唳中度過。是否要走到這個地步，蔡英文必須再好好思量。
繽紛的就職典禮，也許會讓人產生一種浮晃的錯覺，以為兩岸關係仍可以用過去習以為常的文字包裝，塑造風平浪靜的假象；然後，再慢慢盤計未來。想像中，俟四年任滿，或許依然可以炒出一盤風味不差的佳餚。但現在情勢十分詭異，蔡英文好似業已打定主意，任爾東西南北風，對北京的「九二共識」通牒來個相應不理。
然而，新政府下注的風險委實太高，如今的台灣經濟禁不起更多政治動盪與折騰。這樣的僵持對峙，落在下風的必然是民進黨，而且可能賠上台灣的安定。
就在蔡英文就職前兩天，大陸商務部耐人尋味地公布今年第一季兩岸貿易最新數據，顯示台灣對大陸出口下降達十一．七％。壞消息並非始於現在，去年一整年台灣對大陸的出口總值已較前年減少了十二．四％，但大陸去年整體出口卻僅較前年衰退一．八％。連續一年多來，台灣對大陸出口衰退達到兩位數，主因在於大陸紅色供應鏈日漸成形，過去仰賴自台進口的項目，如今已由大陸自身的產業聚落取代。
蔡英文切莫見獵心喜，以為可以藉此趨勢擺脫對中國依賴，將籃子轉向歐美市場，或以新南向政策取而代之。去年台灣對東協十國的出口，衰退幅度更甚大陸，減少了十四．二％，對歐洲亦衰退十．九％。台灣經濟的病灶，顯非民進黨所宣稱的過度倚賴大陸，而是台灣創新能力與競爭力趨於枯竭所致。
此時此刻，蔡英文執政起步的第一個問號是：若兩岸失去政治互信，台灣能否在第一大貿易夥伴若干報復性制裁與消極性抵制下，仍有力氣爬出衰頹之淵？
這項通牒與後來的記者會皆在預告：一段時間內，蔡英文若仍自傲自慢地不甩北京，兩岸協商平台將即告中斷，包括熱線在內的兩岸官方聯繫溝通機制也將關機。而協商平台中斷不只是「大兩會」，兩岸ＥＣＦＡ下的「經合會」，及二十餘個協議下諸多「小兩會」，皆恐將一併掩門告退。
果真如此的話，台灣的「孤島效應」將一舉爆發。六年前與馬英九辯論時，蔡英文曾謂要「從世界走入中國」，然而，中國已不只是昔日中國，拒認「九二共識」所捻熄的，將不只是中國這盞大吊燈，還有與其新南向政策息息相關的ＲＣＥＰ；至於ＴＰＰ，美國兩黨出線與將出線的候選人皆已表態反對，其前景並不光明。屆時，蔡英文再後悔未務實地接受「九二共識」，豈不太遲？
北京在蔡英文扛出了中華民國憲法之後，竟不到二十四小時即發出通牒，似已抱定不惜讓兩岸進入新冰河期的決心。這固然反映了習近平的強悍作風，也顯示北京當局對於台灣人民竟以高漲的台獨浪潮回報八年讓利耿耿於懷，並深以為戒。此刻寧左勿右、寧硬勿軟，恐是無可再讓。
但反過來看，「通牒」其實也是一個回眸，是對往昔風景的流連。習近平曾為「九二共識」而赴新加坡「馬習會」，他絕不會反對蔡英文也攀此山巔，前提是要雙方政治基礎足夠緊實。由此看，通牒雖步步進逼，豈不也用心良苦？
陳水扁峻拒「九二共識」後的失政與困頓，歷歷在目，蔡英文不可再重蹈覆轍。既然承認了「九二會談」的歷史事實，何必又自欺欺人地抹去會談之後「九二函電」的歷史紀錄？對此，自稱以「解決問題」為念的蔡英文，何不舉起函電電文，宣告她承認這份確然存在的信函，解除最後通牒的警報？
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