A Cross-Strait Peace Agreement Requires Mutual Trust

A Cross-Strait Peace Agreement Requires Mutual Trust
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 14, 2011

Summary: If re-elected, might President Ma Ying-jeou visit the Chinese mainland? Might he even sign a cross-Strait peace agreement? The question has raised concerns and provoked Blue vs. Green controversy. The Republic of China is a democratic republic. The president is answerable to its citizens. Any decisions and actions must be consistent with the will of the people. Any visit to the Chinese mainland must consider public sentiment and cross-Strait reality. Speculation about such a visit now is premature.

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If re-elected, might President Ma Ying-jeou visit the Chinese mainland? Might he even sign a cross-Strait peace agreement? The question has raised concerns and provoked Blue vs. Green controversy. The Republic of China is a democratic republic. The president is answerable to its citizens. Any decisions and actions must be consistent with the will of the people. Any visit to the Chinese mainland must consider public sentiment and cross-Strait reality. Speculation about such visit now is premature.

Presidential Office Chief of Staff King Pu-tsung and DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen visited the United States at the same time. The two sides continue to do battle overseas. Cross-Strait policy has become a controversial topic. An exclusive interview with Phoenix News misreported King Pu-tsung as saying that if reelected, President Ma would visit the Chinese mainland, in his capacity as KMT Party Chairman. This invited an attack by the DPP. But the Presidential Office had already cleared up the matter. A Presidential Office spokesman made clear that if President Ma Ying-jeou ever conducts an official visit to the Chinese mainland, it will be in his capacity as Republic of China President.

King Pu-tsung followed up by saying that as long as we uphold the Republic of China's sovereignty and dignity, all sorts of favorable cross-Strait developments are possible. This includes the signing of a peace agreement. "If it [a cross-Strait peace agreement] benefits Taiwan, why not?" He responded to Tsai Ing-wen, saying, "As long as Chairman Tsai is willing to talk to the Beijing about the Republic of China's sovereignty under the constitutional frameworld of the Republic of China, that accords with the national interest, and I applaud it."

King Pu-tsung said nothing new. President Ma has reiterated that cross-Strait relations must address economics first and politics last. It must address easy issues first and harder issues last. This includes any peace agreement or military confidence building mechanism. No exact timetable exists for any of these. In a 2008 interview with CNR, Ma Ying-jeou said visiting the Chinese mainland is important. But the time is not ripe. Nor is it the most urgent matter we have to deal with. The two sides need not touch on political issues for the moment.

When President Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian were in office, they both expressed a willingness to visit the Chinese mainland in the furtherance of cross-Strait peace. Of course, offering an olive branch is one thing. Genuinely wanting to implement cross-Strait peace is another. Anyone can posture. Not everyone can see a vision through to its fulfillment.

Any presidential visit or cross-Strait peace agreement would require a solid foundation and proper timing. The cross-Strait situation at the moment is not right. A Republic of China president visiting the Chinese mainland in his capacity as Republic of China president would be unacceptable to the PRC. Recognition of the Republic of China's sovereign status would be political suicide for PRC authorities. It would provoke an intense nationalist backlash. On the other hand, a Republic of China president visiting the Chinese mainland in his capacity as KMT party chairman would demean the Republic of China in the eyes of the public on Taiwan. Beijing would have good reason to be concerned about the impact such a visit from the leader of the Republic of China might have on Taiwan society.

The dispute over sovereignty is the real sticking point in cross-Strait relations. After President Ma Ying-jeou took office, his greatest achievement was to break the deadlock in cross-Strait relations, and transform it into an examplar of "effective management." The Ma administration has successfully shelved cross-Strait disputes. The two sides are seeking common ground and setting aside differences. They are promoting cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation, allowing people and understand each other. This will enable them to discover what they share in common. Bit by bit, they can build trust and friendship, and arrive at some shared expectations about the future. Under the aegis of the 1992 Consensus, disputes over sovereignty have encouraged Beijing to acknowledge the existence of the Republic of China. During cross-Strait negotiations, officials have visited each other, qua officials. To some extent, government to government exchanges have already taken place. The two sides have merely refrained from underscoring this fact.

Nevertheless, only three short years have passed. Only modest progress has been made. A Republic of China president still cannot attend an APEC summit. Talk of visiting the Chinese mainland is still premature.

A cross-Strait peace agreement sounds good. But before an agreement can be signed, both sides must have something to gain. They must trust the other to keep its promises. There must be sufficient trust between the public on both sides. People on Taiwan have long lived under a threat. Absent concrete, long-term demonstrations of good faith, it will be difficult for them to lower their guard. If the PRC attempts to assert sovereignty over the ROC, it will be unacceptable to the public on Taiwan. Sixty years of PRC military aggression has never caused the ROC to yield its sovereignty or dignity. It is not about to do so now merely for the sake of some ink on paper. The two sides can cooperate on certain matters, for example, sea rescues and military visits. At this stage these would be considered major victories.

The Republic of China is a democratic republic. The will of the people constrains the president's decision-making process. It affects the progress of cross-Strait relations. The Republic of China's national interests include its prosperity and growth, its sovereignty and dignity, its security and international space. Its heads of state have been entrusted by the people to achieve these ends. Other goals are not yet feasible. Better to improve cross-Strait relations step by step. Only then will more favorable possibilities unfold in the future.

兩岸簽和平協議 須先建立互信
2011-09-15 中國時報

馬英九總統如果連任，是否將訪問大陸，甚至兩岸簽署和平協議，引發各界關注甚至藍綠爭議。事實上，台灣是個民主國家，總統承受國民付託，任何決策與行動都必須符合國民意志，訪中也必須依循民意趨向並考量兩岸現實，現在談論，實在言之過早。

馬辦執行長金溥聰與民進黨總統參選人蔡英文同時訪美，雙方在海外不斷交鋒，兩岸政策更成為爭議話題。金溥聰接受「鳳凰衛視」專訪的新聞，被誤報為馬總統連任後可能會以黨主席身分訪問中國大陸，引發民進黨抨擊；但馬辦已經予以澄清，總統府發言人也強調只要是正式出訪行程，總統馬英九的身分只有一個，即是「中華民國總統」。

接著金溥聰在華府表示，若能堅持中華民國主權與尊嚴前提下，兩岸未來任何發展都有可能性，包括簽署和平協議，「若是對台灣有利，（兩岸簽和平協議）why not?」他還向蔡英文喊話，「只要蔡主席願意在中華民國憲法架構下，與大陸談台灣主權，就是符合國家利益，我會舉雙手贊成」。

其實金溥聰並沒有說出什麼新的政策，馬總統早已多次公開表示，兩岸的互動要先經後政、先易後難，包括簽署和平協議、軍事互信機制沒有確切時間表。馬英九在二○○八年底接受央廣專訪也說，訪問大陸是重大的事，但目前時機未到，也不是最迫切要處理；兩岸目前沒有觸及政治議題的急迫性。

而回溯前總統李登輝與陳水扁，其實也都曾在任內表達願意訪中進行和平之旅的意願。當然，擺出遞出橄欖枝的和平姿態是一回事，真要付諸實行又是另一回事，畢竟姿態人人會擺，宏願不是每個都能實現。

基本上，無論是總統訪問中國大陸，還是兩岸簽署和平協議，都需要能夠有一個堅實的基礎與成熟的環境。以兩岸現在的狀況，台灣總統訪問中國，以總統的身分，大陸政府不可能接受，因為如果承認台灣的主權地位，對中國大陸執政者將是政治自殺，也會引發社會上強烈的民族主義反彈浪潮。如果以黨主席身分，台灣會認為是自我矮化，中共則可能擔心台灣領導人登陸帶來的社會衝擊。

主權之爭是目前兩岸最困難的僵持點，馬英九總統就任後，最大的成就是把原本凍結對立的兩岸關係，轉化成可順利推動並有效管理。馬政府成功地促成兩岸擱置爭議，求同存異，先推動雙方的各項交流合作，讓人民相互認識、相互理解，進而逐漸了解並開發彼此的共同性，在友誼中點滴建立起互信，以及對未來打造一些共同期望的願景。主權爭議在九二共識下，爭取到了讓對岸多少對中華民國有些認可，甚至兩岸協商時官員上桌以及官員相互訪問，在某種程度上，都已經有政府對政府的意涵了，只是雙方也暫不點明而已。

但這只是在三年多的時間裡營造出來的一點進展，在台灣總統還不能出席亞太經合會議峰會時，要談訪問中國大陸，真的還遠得很。

至於兩岸和平協議，聽起來固然美好，但協議之所以能簽署，必須要雙方都覺得可以獲利，並且信任對方能信守承諾，這一定需要彼此的民眾都對對方有了足夠的信賴。對於一直處於武力威脅下的台灣民眾來說，沒有長期看到具體的善意表現，很難放下戒心。而如果中國想在協議套上任何可以彰顯其對台主權的前提，台灣社會不可能願意接受。面對中共武力壓迫了六十多年，台灣從來都不曾對主權尊嚴退縮過，自然也不可能為一紙於己不利的和平協議而放棄立場。能夠先試著在一些事務上進行合作，例如海上救難、軍事互訪等，就已經是現階段的重大進展了。

台灣是民主國家，人民的集體意志不只約束著總統的決策，也牽動著兩岸關係進展。台灣的國家利益包括了繁榮發展、主權尊嚴、安全及國際空間，元首受國民付託必須追求這些利益的實現。與其爭執眼前尚不可行的事，不如好好一步步落實推動兩岸關係，才能讓未來出現更多有利的可能性。