Non-DPP Running Mate a Headache for Tsai Ing-wen

Non-DPP Running Mate a Headache for Tsai Ing-wen
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 2, 2011

Summary: The presidential election is only four months away. DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen has not been able to finalize her choice of running mate. This is not just a headache for Tsai Ing-wen. The running mate issue has inadvertently exposed one of the DPP's chronic aliments.

Full Text below:

The presidential election is only four months away. DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen has not been able to finalize her choice of running mate. This is not just a headache for Tsai Ing-wen. The running mate issue has inadvertently exposed one of the DPP's chronic aliments.

In theory, the vice president is merely a back up for the president. Unless of course the president is willing to share power. Otherwise, historically speaking, the vice president is usually a person without a voice. Annette Lu even characterized herself as a "neglected concubine hidden away in the imperial harem." The vice presidency is a high office with little authority. But during election season, it takes on inordinate importance, The president's choice of running mate is both art and science.

In nations with vice-presidents, the presidential candidate often picks a vice presidential running mate to make up for what he lacks. U.S. President Barack Obama picked veteran Senator Joe Biden as his running mate, to make up for his own lack of experience, This was considered a brilliant move. By the same token, his opponent, John McCain, sought out Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The idea was to win the women's vote. But Palin surprised everyone with her ineptitude in the political arena. She became a deficit to the McCain presidential campaign.

Similarly, ever since the Republic of China began holding direct presidential elections, the choice of vice presidential running mate has always involved power considerations. Examples include the Lee Teng-hui/Lien Chan ticket and the Lien Chan/Vincent Siew ticket. Back then Lee Teng-hui was masterminding the election campaign, and had certain succession considerations, That was why he ruled out the Lien/Soong ticket. But his decision touched a sensitive nerve within the party, The eventual result was a lose/lose proposition.

Soon afterwards, the balance of power became a key consideration. A running mate was no longer an implicit successor. For example, during Chen Shui-bian's 2004 re-election bid, he stuck with Annette Lu as his running mate. This allowed factional leaders within the party to hold out hope. Only then would they campaign on his behalf during the general election. When President Ma Ying-jeou first ran for president, he chose Vincent Siew. The idea was that Vincent Siew would be the elder statesman, and look after the nation. This would prevent tension within the party. This time, Ma Ying-jeou chose Premier Wu Den-yih as his vice presidential running mate, The two candidates have roughly the same political experience and the same seniority. Ma's choice of running mate did not imply that his vice presidential running mate would also be his successor.

Given such precedents, which model will Tsai Ing-wen adopt in her choice of running mate? She is afraid to even mention her model for succession. Even Chen Shui-bian, at the height of his power, was afraid to designate a successor. Tsai Ing-wen is merely a nominal overlord within the DPP. So far Tsai Ing-wen has reiterated a need to expand the party's base of support within society. The implication is that the ideal running mate would be chosen from outside the party. If so, her primary consideration must be the balance of power within the party.

Currently the "Two Sus" are the most popular candidates within the party. But both lack power. Most DPP supporters want Tsai Ing-wen to choose Su Tseng-chang as her running mate. For them, that would be a dream team. Such a ticket would have more charisma than a Tsai Ing-wen/Peng Hui-nan ticket. But whether Tsai Ing-wen and Su Tseng-chang can become running mates does not hinge upon whether Tsai and Su can get along. It does not hinge upon whether Su Tseng-chang has committed a breach of faith. The biggest player during the party primaries was Frank Hsieh. The key is whether Hsieh can accept a Tsai/Su ticket, As for Su Chia-chuan, his supporters are enthusiastic. But significant intraparty opposition remains, particularly among the New Tide Faction, the most powerful faction within the party, It does not want to see Su Chia-chuan suddenly emerge as a major player.

Tsai Ing-wen is actively seeking outside talent. To some extent, she is attempting to defuse the power struggle within the party. A running mate from outside the party would have the name but not the game. He would not constitute a threat to party insiders. He could help the DPP party factions reach a consensus. Contrast this with the KMT. Ma Ying-jeou is not as adept at defusing power struggles within the party. For some time grassroots members have been discontent. But the KMT does not have DPP style factional politics. If DPP factions go at each other, Tsai Ing-wen will have her hands full.

Factionalism is not the only hidden malady bedeviling the DPP. Another problem is the party's "monoculture," both ideologically and in the character of its membership. Why is the ideal running mate not from within the party, but instead from without? Why must the runnng mate be Perng Hui-nan? The subtext is clear. If the Democratic Progressive Party returns to power, but lacks Perng Hui-nan's endorsement, voters do not believe the DPP can offer the nation a sound fiscal policy.

DPP talent is drawn almost exclusively from its elected officials, They may be brave and fierce in battle. But after conquering the world, they do not necessarily know how to govern it, The ability to campaign is not the ability to govern. Political rhetoric is no substitue for sound policy. Tsai Ing-wen has published her "Taiwan Next: Platform for the Coming Decade." She is attempting to compensate for this deficiency. But no stack of policy papers can compare with the endorsement of a fiscal policy veteran. No wonder Tsai Ing-wen waited three months for Perng Hui-nan to give the nod.

Without Perng Hui-nan, Tsai Ing-wen would still have found a running mate. But other problems are even more intractable. The balance of terror between DPP factions has infected the party to its very core. The problem has plagued the party from the moment it was founded. The DPP rose to power by taking to the streets. Even though it has been the ruling party, even though many years have gone by, it has never changed its ways. It still knows only how to protest, not how to govern. The public still does not trust DPP leaders to govern, This is the biggest problem the party faces.

副手選黨外 派系讓蔡英文頭痛
2011-09-02 中國時報

距離總統大選只有四個多月，民進黨總統參選人蔡英文的副手卻遲遲未能定案，這不只是蔡英文的頭痛時間，無形中也曝露出民進黨的長年沉痾。

理論上，副手只是備位元首，除非總統願意分享權力，否則從歷史經驗來看，副總統經常是「沒有聲音的人」，呂秀蓮甚至自比深宮怨婦；但這樣位高權輕的角色，大選時卻是舉足輕重，總統候選人挑選副手，確實是一門重要學問。

可以說，有副總統制度的國家，總統候選人挑副手，就是「缺什麼，補什麼」，所以美國總統歐巴馬當年挑了資深參議員拜登擔任副手，可彌補自己生嫩的從政資歷，被視為是高招；相反的，他的對手麥肯雖然找裴琳搭擋、意在爭取婦女選票，但是裴琳當年跌破政壇眼鏡的生疏表現，卻成為麥肯在總統選舉時的一大敗筆。

同樣的，台灣自有總統民選以來，挑選副手背後都有相當的權力考量。例如，李連配、連蕭配，當年主導的李登輝都有一定的接班考量，他排除了連宋配，但也因此牽動黨內敏感的權力神經，最後落得兩敗俱傷的下場。

之後，權力平衡就成為關鍵的考量，副手不再有明顯的接班意味，例如，陳水扁二○○四年角逐總統連任時，繼續選擇居於權力邊緣的呂秀蓮，讓黨內群雄抱持一線希望，大選時才願意為扁效命；總統馬英九首次參選時，挑選蕭萬長則有「老臣謀國」的意味，不致在黨內造成緊張；這一次，馬英九找了閣揆吳敦義搭檔，兩人從政經歷、輩份不相上下，還是看不出有接班意味。

既有前例可循，蔡英文挑選副手，到底會要採取何種模式？接班模式連提都不用提，連陳水扁權力正盛的時刻，他都不敢指定接班人了，更何況蔡英文目前還只是民進黨名義上的共主。到目前為止，蔡英文針對副手人選，一再強調要擴大社會基礎，意在言外的是，她心目中理想的副手人選，仍必須是來自黨外；之所以如此，首要考量還是黨內的權力平衡。

目前黨內人氣最高的雙蘇，在黨內都有權力致命傷。多數民進黨人士認為，蔡英文若找蘇貞昌，這絕對是夢幻組合，比蔡彭（彭淮南）配聲勢還高，但是蔡英文能否和蘇貞昌搭檔，關鍵還不在蔡蘇不和、或是蘇貞昌違反誠信原則而已，黨內初選時最大功臣的謝長廷，能不能接受，也還是關鍵。至於蘇嘉全，雖然同樣呼聲不低，但是黨內的阻力一樣不小，其中尤以黨內新潮流反對最力，該派系實力人士最多，並不樂見蘇嘉全異軍突起。

某種程度而言，蔡英文積極向黨外尋覓人才，其實就是要疏解黨內權鬥的壓力，黨外人士有名無實，不具權力威脅，才可能取得民進黨各派系的共識；相較於國民黨，馬英九同樣不見得能夠嫻熟運用黨內權力，黨內基層有一段時間更是離心離德，但國民黨並未形成如民進黨般的派閥政治，一旦惡鬥起來，蔡英文就要面對相當棘手的處境。

只是，民進黨長年沉痾不只是黨內派系恩怨，黨的屬性及人才過於單一也是問題；為何最佳副手不在黨內、而在黨外？為何非彭淮南不可？背後的潛台詞顯然是，沒有彭淮南背書，民進黨如果再度執政，選民未必相信他們可以有一套穩健的財經政策。

民進黨人才幾乎都是選舉出身，選舉時驍勇善戰，但是馬上得天下，卻還未通過馬上治天下的考驗，選舉畢竟不能代替執政，政見不能取代政策，蔡英文主導十年政綱，正是要補足這塊空缺，但是再多的政策文字，還是比不上一個財經老手的背書，難怪蔡英文要苦等三個月，就是要彭淮南點頭。

等不到彭淮南，蔡英文還是會找到副手，比眼前問題還難解的是，民進黨恐怖平衡的派系結構有如附骨之蛆，從創黨以來就沒有改善過；同樣的，當年以抗爭起家的民進黨，即使經過執政，這麼多年後，還是改不了當年打天下的習性，舉黨人才都無法給予民眾執政信心，這才是最大的問題。