Ing/Chia Ticket Formed: Factional Struggles Coming

Ing/Chia Ticket Formed: Factional Struggles Coming
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 12, 2011

Summary: No need to wait until Wikileaks blows the whistle. People know perfectly well they cannot believe what politicians say. Take for example DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen's choice of running mate. Originally her goal was to expand the base of voter support. But less than a month later, her goal was to form a "Ing/Chia ticket" to consolidate support within party, and win over swing voters and middle-aged voters. The election climate did not change that much during this time. So why the 189 degree about face? Ultimately what goals are the most important?

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No need to wait until Wikileaks blows the whistle. People know perfectly well they cannot believe what politicians say. Take for example DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen's choice of running mate. Originally her goal was to expand the base of voter support. But less than a month later, her goal was to form a "Ing/Chia ticket" to consolidate support within party, and win over swing voters and middle-aged voters. The election climate did not change that much during this time. So why the 189 degree about face? Ultimately what goals are the most important?

Su Chia-chuan was born in the 1950s. If he becomes Tsai Ing-wen's vice presidential running mate, does that constitute generational change? If so, what would it have meant if Su Tseng-chang had become her vice presidential running mate? Is this really the time to trumpet generational change? Is this not a good time to go after voters in central Taiwan? Political rhetoric is tossed about much too casually. Voters cannot take it too seriously.

So much politically expedient rhetoric has been tossed about while Tsai Ing-wen was choosing her running mate. The main reason is that Tsai Ing-wen misjudged the situation from Day One. Tsai and the DPP's first choice for vice presidential running mate was of course Central Bank President Perng Huai-nan. The DPP lacks people with financial and economics expertise. He could have filled that gap. He could have provided "adult supervision," the reassuring presence of an experienced veteran, watching over the nation. These were all qualities that would have attracted swing voters to the DPP. But would Perng Hui-nan assent? That, as it turned out, was something the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen could not control. They misjudged the situation. As a result, Tsai Ing-wen's choice of vice presidential running mate was delayed nearly two months.

Had Perng given the nod, he would have solved all the DPP's problems. But when Perng didn't, he opened up a can of worms. Because Perng Hui-nan was the only candidate for which the DPP was in agreement. Even Tsai Ing-wen herself remains controversial among party elders.

Take Su Tseng-chang for example. According to polls he has the most momentum. Most DPP members and factions consider him their first choice for Tsai's vice presidential running mate. Tsai Ing-wen asked Su Tseng-chang to be her vice presidential running mate on September 2. She obviously did so in response to collective sentiment. She characterized it as a "bold gesture." On September 8, Su Tseng-chang held a press conference, during which he turned her down. The very next day, Tsai Ing-wen announced that Su Chia-chuan would be her running mate. As the sequence of events shows, Tsai Ing-wen had already settled on Su Chia-chuan. She asked Su Tseng-chang merely as a pro forma gesture.

It was just as well that Su Tseng-change turned down the vice presidential spot. He said many times in the past that he would not serve as vice president. Had he not turned it down, he would have lost credibility, and have had little positive impact on the election. But within the DPP, being true to one's word is meaningless. Think back to last year's Five Cities Elections. The consensus within the DPP was that whoever wanted a shot at the presidency would have to negotiate the gauntlet of the Five Cities Elections. Does this reasoning show any respect for the voters' feelings?

Despite high-minded rhetoric, the DPP has never transcended factionalism. DPP factions are not working with each other to win the election. On the contrary, DPP elders have their own axes to grind, Su Tseng-chang wants to build momentum for a run at the presidency in 2016. Rival Frank Hsieh is not about to let Su have his way. Su Chia-chuan's candidacy is being spun as generational change. In fact his candidacy is backed by Frank Hsieh. This hardly constitutes passing the torch. The New Tide Faction has the most middle-aged party leaders. But they fully support party elder Su Tseng-chang, They show no signs of wanting generational change.

Soon after Tsai Ing-wen took over as party chairman. she boasted that the era of the party princes was over. But two years later, not a single party prince has surrendered his claim to the throne. Frank Hsieh, Su Tseng-chang, Yu Shyi-kun all maintain their own standing armies. On the surface, the factions defer to Tsai Ing-wen. But beneath the surface, they continue expanding their power. DPP factions have become "10,000 year factions."

Over the past two years, the DPP has ostensibly been reborn, like a phoenix rising from the ashes. But in fact it is the same old DPP. This means that if Tsai Ing-wen is elected president in 2012, she will face the same DPP that Chen Shui-bian faced in 2008. DPP factions are adept at advancing their own interests. Will they cooperate with the party chairman and adopt the path of moderation whiled dealing with the affairs of state? That remains to be seen.

Conversely, if Tsai Ing-wen loses in 2012, she will be a classic example of a fleeting phenomenon. Her tenure and whatever she accomplished as party chairman during her tenure, will be like a ship passing through the water. No trace will remain behind. A naked factional power struggle is about to erupt within the party. No faction is powerful enough to swallow up its rivals. Therefore at best they will arrive at a balance of terror. At worst, they will engage in a never-ending power struggle.

Tsai Ing-wen was too cavalier about the backlash from within her own party when she compiled her list of nominees for legislator wihout portfolio. Factional leaders have even begun questioning Tsai Ing-wen's ability to govern. Her inexperience showed during her vice presidential running mate selection process. Party princes began wondering whether the Tsai Ing-wen era had arrived a little too early. A presidential candidate's choice of vice presidential running mate is not that important. But the selection process must be handled properly. If not, Tsai Ing-wen could suffer serious political damage.

英嘉配成形 派系角力蠢蠢欲動
2011-09-12 中國時報

不必等到維基解密爆料，政客公開講話能信幾分，民眾其實心知肚明；就以民進黨總統參選人蔡英文挑選副手為例，原來目標還是擴大社會基礎，不到一個月時間，為了配合「英嘉配」成形，蔡挑副手的原則一轉成為鞏固黨內、力搶中間票、中生代接班。在這段時間，選情並未有太大變化，為何前後出現一百八十度轉折，到底哪個原則才真的重要？

假如找四年級生的蘇嘉全擔任副手，就算是中生代接班，那麼，如果蘇貞昌肯擔任副手、另一組蔡蘇配成形時，又代表什麼意義？這時候還能大力鼓吹世代交替嗎？此時難道就不利搶攻中部票源。可見，政治語言是隨便人說的，選民真的不能太當真。

蔡英文挑副手，會出現這麼多的權宜性語言，最主要的根源在於：蔡英文一開始就錯估情勢。蔡及民進黨心目中第一目標人選，當然是央行總裁彭淮南，一來可以彌補民進黨財政專業不足的缺口，另外也有老臣謀國的意涵，都有利於民進黨爭取中間選票，但是彭淮南會不會點頭，卻不是民進黨或蔡英文可以操之在己的變數。一個錯誤的情勢研判，就讓蔡英文的副手，慢了將近兩個月無法出爐。

彭淮南若點頭，可以解決民進黨所有的問題，但當彭淮南只能拒絕，就掀開了民進黨的潘朵拉盒子，因為在彭淮南之外的其他人選，則不但民進黨內沒有共識，甚至蔡英文和黨內大老之間，只怕也有異見。

就以當前民調聲勢最高的蘇貞昌為例，他應當是多數民進黨人士及派系認可的人選，蔡英文顯然是出於尊重集體決策的考量，才於九月二日首度邀請蘇貞昌出任副手，並且自稱是「斗膽一試」，蘇貞昌九月八日舉行記者會拒絕後，蔡英文也立即在隔日宣布蘇嘉全為副手人選。這些過程在在都可以顯示，蔡英文已經內定蘇嘉全，她之邀請蘇貞昌，象徵大於實質意義。

蘇貞昌婉拒接受副手時說得好：過去他已多次講過不出任副手，現在如果沒有誠信，對選戰加分效果有限。只是，對民進黨而言，誠信原則並沒有太大的意義，還記得去年五都選舉，民進黨的集體聲音是，誰想爭取總統大位，就要先過五都這一關，這樣的邏輯，哪有將五都選民的誠信放在心中。

所以，在這些美麗詞藻背後所揭露出的民進黨，並非打破派系、同心協力打選戰；相反的，民進黨大老在助選時各懷鬼胎，蘇貞昌想的是挾高聲勢準備衝向二○一六，但是他的死對頭謝長廷卻不可能讓他稱心如意；事實上，蘇嘉全擔任副手、號稱是中生代接班，但在他背後，則有大老謝長廷支持，這很難謂之為交棒；同樣的，新潮流有最多的中生代，但他們全力支持大老蘇貞昌，看不出樂見世代交替。

蔡英文接任黨主席不久，就揚言天王的時代已經過去，但二年多下來，沒有一位天王退位，謝長廷、蘇貞昌、游錫?都還是各擁重兵；同樣的，各派系表面上尊重蔡英文，但是私底下力圖擴充實力，派系反而有成為萬年派閥的趨勢。

可以說，這兩年來，民進黨表面上浴火重生，但骨子裡還是原來的老民進黨，透露出的意涵是，如果蔡英文當選二○一二年總統，她面對的仍是陳水扁二千年時面對的民進黨。擅長計算利害的民進黨各派系，能不能和同黨總統同步、以中道處理國政，仍有待觀察。

相反的，如果蔡英文二○一二年落敗，她將是典型的過客，黨主席任內所作所為，可能是船過水無痕，赤裸裸的派系角力會立即上場，由於沒有任何一方有併吞對方的超強實力，因此最好的狀況是彼此恐怖平衡，最壞的狀況可能是沒完沒了的黨內權力鬥爭。

事實上，由於蔡英文在處理不分區立委名單時，對黨內反彈太過輕率，黨內各山頭已經開始懷疑蔡英文的能力；而這次挑選副手過程的生嫩，可能提醒天王們，後蔡英文時代提前出現的可能性；可以說，副手人選其實無甚大用，但挑選副手的過程處理不當，確實對蔡英文有很大的殺傷力。