A Third Force Could Influence the Outcome of the Election

A Third Force Could Influence the Outcome of the Election
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 26, 2011

Summary: In his bid for president, People First Party Chairman James Soong has launched a petition drive. James Soong boasts about a "million signature petition." His vice presidential running mate, Professor Lin Jui-hsiung, vows that "If we receive fewer than one million signatures, we will not run." Other People First Party spokespersons have publicly vowed that "As long as we achieve the minimum number of signatures required by law, it won't matter whether we collect a million signatures or not. James Soong will run." The likelihood that a third force will enter the 2012 presidential race has significantly increased. Moreover, this third force clearly has a good chance of influencing the outcome of the election.

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In his bid for president, People First Party Chairman James Soong has launched a petition drive. James Soong boasts about a "million signature petition." His vice presidential running mate, Professor Lin Jui-hsiung, vows that "If we receive fewer than one million signatures, we will not run." Other People First Party spokespersons have publicly vowed that "As long as we achieve the minimum number of signatures required by law, it won't matter whether we collect a million signatures or not. James Soong will run." The likelihood that a third force will enter the 2012 presidential race has significantly increased. Moreover, this third force clearly has a good chance of influencing the outcome of the election.

Direct presidential elections have been held on Taiwan for some time now. But is there room for a third force besides the KMT and DPP? Politicians and the public have both been asking this veryquestion. Over the past decade or so, there has been the New Party, the People First Party, and the Taiwan Solidarity Union. There has also been the Red Shirts. It had no formal organization, but some referred to as the Red Party. Former DPP legislator Hsu Jung-shu referred to the Red Shirts as the "biggest party of all -- the people." Several political parties have from time to time achieved some degree of notoriety or fame. But the most important election is the presidential election. Here, they have had little opportunity to compete. The 2012 presidential election may be the key event that determines whether a third force will have a say. From this perspective, Blue camp supporters may feel anxious. But they cannot evade their duty. They must use their votes to tell aspiring third force politicians to accept political reality.

Just exactly what role can a third force play in the political process? Before the New Party was founded, it was preceded by the "New KMT Connection." It was already influencing the legislative process. A third or fourth party can indeed play a pivotal role. When the People First Party was at the height of its power, it too played a pivotal role between the KMT and DPP. It influenced legislation, budgets, even personnel appointments, For example, when the Chen family corruption scandal erupted, former Prosecutor General Chen Tsung-ming was the focus of controversy. Support from the People First Party enabled his approval in the legislature.

Whether third force influence enhances the people's livelihood, the people's interests, or creates more turbulence, is a matter of opinion. This is especially true when more and more legislation requires ruling and opposition party compromise. Consultation between the two largest parties may not be enough. Consultation with smaller parties or independents may be required. Backroom deals have long tarnished the image of the legislature. For example, during the first Chen administration, none of the three largest parties commanded an absolute majority. The DPP regime exploited the lack of a legislative majority by exerting monetary or judicial pressure, It used threats or inducements to bend legislators to the ruling DPP's will, The Chen regime boasted that it would increase integrity in government. Not only did it not combat black gold, it was even more corrupt than its predecessor.

The People First Party clings to a superstitious belief in the power of political manipulation. It is determined to walk the line between the KMT and the DPP. In 2004, it collaborated with Lien Chan during the presidential election. In 2006, it held secret meetings with Chen Shui-bian. Controversy erupted over cross-Strait communications. In the end, the People First Party wound up persona non grata to both Blue Camp and Green Camp supporters, Blue Camp supporters cannot forgive Soong for the secret Chen/Soong Meetings, Even Chen Shui-bian has repeatedly blasted James Soong from his prison cell, accusing Soong of failing to fulfill his mission.

Soong is indeed a rare talent in the political arena. Few people can match his political and administrative ability. He has experienced many ups and downs over the decades, but still commands the loyalty of his core supporters. But even more people are filled with doubts about his trickery, for the very same reason. For the sake of political advantage, Soong can be your enemy today and your friend tomorrow. It may be true that in politics there are no permanent enemies or permanent friends. But if one's friends and foes are based entirely on political interests and considerations of power, how can one possibly win another person's trust?

James Soong long ago declared that he was retiring from politics. Now however, he has popped up again. The Blue and Green parties may react differently. But both know James Soong cannot win, All he can do is act as a spoiler. The Green Camp is only too happy to see James Soong run as an independent. The Blue Camp is worried James Soong may remain in the race to the bitter end, They are both concerned, because the most likely consequence of James Soong's presidential bid is a replay of the 2000 change in ruling parties. As the saying goes, what's past is prologue. We have already endured the 2000 change in ruling parties. We have already suffered through eight years of Democratic Progressive Party misrule. Do we really need to relive this ordeal?

James Soong enjoys far less momentum today than he did in 2000. Yet he still commands a certain degree of support. Why? Because neither of the two major parties, Blue or Green, has been able to win the people's hearts. The DPP is not to blame for the current situation. Democratic Progressive Party rule was ineffectual and scandal-ridden. The DPP paid the price when it was ejected from office. But the KMT lost power once before. It regained that power with great difficulty, but showed itself incapable of serious soul-searching. After regaining power, it missed the opportunity to reunite the Blue Camp. As a result, Ma Ying-jeou's second term is in serious jeopardy.

Any independent party candidate has a constitutionally guaranteed right to run for president, It makes no difference whether they emerged from the same camp or not, James Soong does not need to worry about whether his candidacy will derail Ma Ying-jeou's bid for a second term. If Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP win as a result of Soong, they will have nothing to boast about. James Soong petitioned with all his might for 45 days. The KMT faces enemies front and rear. Even if it fails to win an absolute majority, it must win at least 45% of the vote to be safe. When the People First Party or a third force has its back to the wall, it is a test of the two major parties.

第三勢力叫陣 影響選局機率大
2011-09-26 中國時報

親民黨主席宋楚瑜正式展開獨立參選的連署工程，儘管是否能如宋楚瑜所言「百萬連署就參選」、或者宋的副手搭檔林瑞雄教授聲稱「不到百萬連署就不參選」，親民黨人已公開保證「只要跨過連署門檻，不管有沒有百萬，宋楚瑜一定會選」，二○一二年總統大選必然有第三組人選的可能性，已經大幅向上攀升，而且，第三組人選顯然有很大機率影響選局。

台灣自有總統直選以來，國、民兩黨之外，到底有沒有第三勢力的存活空間？始終是政壇乃至民間無法停止的想像。然而，十多年來從新黨、親民黨、台聯甚至紅衫軍看似並無具體組織卻依舊喊出的紅黨、前民進黨立委許榮淑搞出的全民最大黨…，林林種種，若干政黨也曾經風風火火搞出一點名堂，但是，在總統大選最重要的戰役上，的確空間狹窄，二○一二年大選或許就是第三勢力拍板定案的關鍵選戰。從這個角度觀察，即使藍營支持者再焦慮，都不能不面對此役，讓選票告訴對第三勢力還有嚮往的政治人物們，就此接受政治現實。

第三勢力到底能在政治運作過程中，扮演多大角色？新黨尚未組黨前的新連線，已經證實國會議事，第三或第四黨的確可以發揮牽制功能，親民黨聲勢最盛時期，也能在國、民兩黨之間合縱連橫，左右法案、預算乃至人事同意權，隨便舉例，在扁家弊案中一度引爆爭議的前檢察總長陳聰明，就是在親民黨支持下過關。

唯牽制的結果到底有利於國計民生、人民利益，或者徒增紛擾，那可就見仁見智了。特別是國會議事朝野協商佔有比例愈益吃重的情況下，兩黨協商不夠，還要與兩黨外的小黨或無黨籍協商，不透明的密室協商就一直是國會形象敗壞的原因之一，舉例而言，扁政府執政第一任，三黨不過半，民進黨政府運用破碎的國會多數的結果，以金權或司法施壓，威脅兼利誘以促使國會議事朝民進黨政府的方向行進，標舉向上提昇的扁政府不但沒能向黑金宣戰，反倒愈趨沉淪。

親民黨迷信政治操作的結果，在國民黨與民進黨間遊走，二○○四年與連戰合作競選總統失利後，二○○六年又與陳水扁密會，鬧出兩岸傳話爭議，最後搞到親民黨兩面不是人，藍營支持者迄今無法諒解扁宋會，人在獄中的陳水扁還三不五時挑剔宋楚瑜有辱使命。

宋楚瑜確是政壇少見的幹才，他對政治與行政事務的能力，少有人能出其右，因此在政壇起伏數十年，依舊還有一群信賴他的死忠支持者，但也因為如此，有更大一群人對他的權謀充滿疑慮。為了政治上的需要，他可以今日為敵，明日是友，雖然政治沒有永遠的敵人或朋友，但是，如果是敵是友都以政治利益或權力考量為依據，又如何取信於民？

對藍綠政黨而言，迸出一個早已宣布退出政壇的宋楚瑜，或許有著不同的觀察和期待，但立足點都在於宋楚瑜不可能當選，但可能逆轉選局，不論是綠營樂見宋楚瑜獨立參選，或藍營焦慮宋楚瑜參選到底，都是因為宋楚瑜出馬最大可能的結果，就是重製二○○○年政黨輪替的經驗。所謂「前事不忘後事之師」，已經有過二○○○年政黨輪替，並經過民進黨八年執政經驗的選民們，還需要再次經歷這種後果嗎？

藍綠兩大黨已經輪替執政，卻始終無法得到人民的滿意，是宋楚瑜此番參選，在聲勢不若二○○○年的情況下，還能得到一定支持的最主要原因。民進黨不必負什麼責任，因為民進黨執政不力，弊案叢生，已經付出失去執政權的代價；但是，對於曾經失去政權，好不容易重新執政的國民黨而言，卻不能不深刻檢討，為什麼取得權力後，卻錯失了整合藍營的機會，以致馬英九連任之途，變數橫生？

對任何獨立政黨而言，參選是其憲法保障的權利，即使系出同門，宋楚瑜是否參選完全不必考量馬英九是否因此落選，民進黨和蔡英文若因此倖勝，也不值得驕傲，連署期程是宋楚瑜全力造勢的關鍵四十五天，腹背受敵的國民黨則必須戒慎恐懼迎戰，就算選票無法過半，至少要衝過百分之四十五才能逼進當選安全區。親民黨或第三勢力背水一戰，又何嘗不是對兩大黨的考驗。