Tsai Ing-wen: Why Has Nothing Worked Out As She Planned?

Tsai Ing-wen: Why Has Nothing Worked Out As She Planned?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
September 14, 2011

Summary: Tsai Ing-wen finds herself in a quandary. She finds herself bound hand and foot by the Green Camp, by the public on Taiwan, by both sides of the Taiwan Strait. No matter which way she turns, nothing seems to work out as she planned. What Tsai Ing-wen is saying and doing today, is clearly different from what she was saying and doing in April 2008. Destiny invariably trumps the will of the individual. Tsai Ing-wen cannot go back. But if she simply hardens her heart, and continues along her current path, where in the world will she find herself?

Full Text below:

In May 2008, Tsai Ing-wen was elected DPP chairman. In April this year, a mere three years later, she bacame the DPP's presidential nominee. Tsai Ing-wen seems like an overnight success. She seems to be leading a charmed life. But people are discovering that Tsai Ing-wen's bubbles have been burst, time and time again. The contrast between her swift rise and her current frustration is truly fascinating.

Rampant Chen regime corruption and rash moves toward Taiwan independence brought the DPP to its nadir. That was Tsai Ing-wen's cue to step forward. Her mission was to rescue the DPP from the clutches of the old order, and to formulate a sensible and workable cross-Strait policy. Her words and deeds led people to expect great things from her. She probably expected the same things from herself. But as she ascended the ladder to the presidency, her words, her deeds, and her image began to undergo change. Apparently her mission changed too. Is Tsai Ing-wen saying the same thing today that she said in April 2008?

In 2008, when Tsai Ing-wen first became party chairman, she attempted to sever relations with Chen Shui-bian. But today she finds herself stuck to him like a tar baby. She is forced to answer questions about whether if elected president she will pardon Chen Shui-bian. This has become a real problem for her. In 2008, Tsai Ing-wen hoped to sever relations with Chen Shui-bian, She hoped to take advantage of unfolding events to transform the Taiwan independence movement. Now however, she finds it impossible to rid herself of Chen Shui-bian. Worse still, Taiwan independence forces have become her main support. Think back to when Chen Shui-bian first ran for president. Esteemed "Consultants on National Policy" were still willing to lend their reputations to the regime. Now however, Tsai Ing-wen finds herself surrounded by the likes of Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, Koo Kwan-min, and other Taiwan independence zealots. Behind Tsai Ing-wen, one finds hordes of controversial figures. Perng Hui-nan turned her down. One cannot find a single new face around her. Was this really what she had in mind? Why has nothing worked out as she planned?

Nothing has worked out as she planned. Tsai Ing-wen would like to jettison Su Tseng-chang. But she can't. She does not want Su Chia-chuan as her vice presidential running mate. But she must settle for him regardless. Tsai Ing-wen's first choice for running mate was Perng Hui-nan or Lin Hsing-yi. But Perng Hui-nan and others were not eager to be drawn into the maelstrom. They had no desire to denounce the 1992 Consensus even as they reaffirmed ECFA. Perng Hui-nan might have consented to being another Tang Fei. But any change he could make would be more symbol than substance. Tsai Ing-wen came back to Su Tseng-chang as her running mate. But she was obviously doing everything possible to jettison him. On August 23, Tsai Ing-wen announced her "Taiwan Next: Platform for the Coming Decade." As a gesture, she invoked Su Tseng-chang's catchphrase, "Taiwanese consensus." On September 5, she floated the possibility of a "Tsai/Su meeting." She hoped media attention would force Su to accept her invitation. Nevertheless he refused. As a result, Tsai Ing-wen could neither jettison Su Tseng-chang nor recruit him. As we can see, Su Chia-chuan was not her first choice. But in the end, she was stuck with him. Here we must ask, why have none of Tsai Ing-wen's choices for running mate -- Perng Hui-nan, Su Tseng-chang, and Su Chia-chuan -- worked out as planned?

Tsai Ing-wen initially repudiated ECFA. Now she has no choice but to accept it. For her, this constitutes a major setback. For the past two years, Tsai Ing-wen catastrophically misjudged ECFA. She revealed her political myopia and blindness. She revealed her cross-Strait policy dilemma. Here again we must ask, Tsai Ing-wen hoped to repudiate ECFA. So why has nothing worked out as she planned?

Consider an even more important question. Tsai Ing-wen currently denounces the 1992 Consensus in no uncertain terms. Will this too fail to work out as she planned? Tsai Ing-wen can hardly rewind the clock, back to the beginning of the campaign, and recognize the 1992 Consensus. The question will have to wait until after the election. Will Tsai Ing-wen want to maintain cross-strait peaceful development? Will she want to maintain ECFA based cross-strait economic and trade exchanges? Beijing will use these to hold her hostage. Will she continue to insist that "The 1992 Consensus does not exist?"

When Tsai Ing-wen became DPP chairman in 2008, she declared that the Democratic Progressive Party was "an opposition political party with experience in governance," and that she would lead it accordingly. What she meant was that the DPP had been in power for eight years. Therefore it was aware of the trade-offs that have to made along the way. Therefore it would no longer make the same mistakes it did in the past. But in the three years since, Tsai Ing-wen has steadily ascended the ladder to the presidency. At the same time, she has been steadily regressing to where the DPP was eight years earlier. Not only has she not introduced anything new, she has made matters worse. Politically she has been unable to rid herself of the spectre of Chen Shui-bian, Lee Teng-hui, Frank Hsieh, Koo Kwan-min, and other Taiwan independence zealots. In cross-strait policy, by repudiating the 1992 Consensus, she has painted herself into a corner. Tsai Ing-wen never expected to paint herself into such a corner. So why has she repeatedly done just that?

Tsai Ing-wen finds herself in a quandary. She finds herself bound hand and foot by the Green Camp, by the public on Taiwan, and by both sides of the Taiwan Strait. No matter which way she turns, nothing seems to work out as she planned. What Tsai Ing-wen is saying and doing today, is clearly different from what she was saying and doing in April 2008. Destiny invariably trumps the will of the individual. Tsai Ing-wen cannot go back. But if she simply hardens her heart, and continues along her current path, where in the world will she find herself?

蔡英文何以總是心想事不成？

【聯合報╱社論】 2011.09.14

蔡英文自二○○八年五月當選民進黨主席，至今年四月短短三年即成為民進黨提名的總統候選人。這使得蔡英文看似扶搖直上，但在一路走來奇蹟儼然逐漸呈現之時，國人卻也一次又一次地發現，蔡英文的初始心願已一個接著一個破滅。對比鮮明，頗可玩味。

蔡英文是在扁朝奇貪巨腐及操弄台獨所造成的民進黨政治谷底出線，她的主要使命是在帶領民進黨跳脫老舊勢力，並在兩岸政策上尋找一條合理可行的道路。當年，她在外觀言行形象上使國人對她產生此種想像，這也應是她自我期許的初始心願。但是，當她攀登上總統參選人的頂峰之此時，她的言行形象卻幾乎完全脫形走樣，恐怕距她自己的初始心願亦已是天壤之別。此時蔡英文的所言所行，還是二○○八年四月間的蔡英文嗎？

二○○八年蔡英文始任黨主席時，可以看出她欲與陳水扁切割的種種努力；但如今她不只與扁難分難捨，且「當選後是否特赦陳水扁」，已成為她必須面對的難題。在二○○八年，蔡英文原想切割陳水扁，並順勢改造台獨勢力；但如今她非但甩不掉陳水扁，台獨勢力亦仍是她背後的主要支持者。回顧陳水扁首次競選總統時，尚有「國政顧問團」的清流助陣；但是，蔡英文今日，卻仍陷在「扁李謝辜獨」的包圍之中。在蔡英文背後，扁朝的爭議性人物一個也沒有少；又因彭淮南拒絕了她，在她身旁竟連「一張」新面孔也看不到。這豈是蔡英文的初始心願，問題是：她何以未能心想事成？

事與願違，也出現在蔡英文想甩掉蘇貞昌卻甩不掉，後來則不想用蘇嘉全卻又不能不退而求其次。蔡英文對副手的優先選擇，應是彭淮南、林信義等；但可為彭淮南等慶幸者是，他們畢竟仍知不能一頭栽進「否認九二共識，維持ＥＣＦＡ」的漩渦中。何況，即使「彭淮南」作了蔡英文的「唐飛」，恐怕也是治標難治本。至於蔡英文回過頭來爭取蘇貞昌做副手，則顯示她百般想要甩掉蘇貞昌卻甩不掉；八月二十三日，蔡英文宣布《十年政綱》兩岸篇，用了蘇貞昌的旗號〈台灣共識〉，已是向蘇表態交心；再至洩漏九月五日「蔡蘇會」，則是想藉新聞造成事實，以勉強蘇貞昌接受，但仍遭拒絕。如此這般，蔡想甩掉蘇貞昌卻甩不掉，想挽回蘇貞昌又挽不回；亦可見蘇嘉全當然不是蔡的優先選擇，最後又不能不退而求其次。此處可問：為何蔡英文對彭淮南、蘇貞昌及蘇嘉全，皆是心想事不成？

蔡英文起初想要全盤否定ＥＣＦＡ，如今竟至不能不接受，這對她更是事與願違的重大挫折。蔡英文在兩年之間，對ＥＣＦＡ出現天差地別的錯誤判斷，不只顯示她在政治認知上的短視與盲點，也完全暴露出她在兩岸政策上已是進退失據。此處亦可問：何以蔡英文想否定ＥＣＦＡ，卻心想事不成？

接下來，更重大的問題是：蔡英文如今嚴詞否認「九二共識」，會不會又是難如其願？依當下情勢看來，蔡英文已無可能在選前回過頭來接受「九二共識」；這個問題將留待蔡英文若當選才會被迫面對，屆時蔡英文若想維持兩岸「和平發展」，維持以ＥＣＦＡ為主體的兩岸經貿交流，她會不會在北京的挾持下，又無以堅持「否認九二共識」？

蔡英文在二○○八年初任黨主席時，宣示她將帶領民進黨「作一個有執政經驗的反對黨」；其意是指，既曾執政八年，即知興替得失之道，不會再蹈覆轍。但是，三年來的蔡英文，一方面一步步登上總統參選人的政治高峰，卻竟而也一步一步走回民進黨執政八年的覆轍，非但了無新意，甚且是變本加厲。她在政治支持上甩不掉「扁李謝辜獨」的「背後靈」，在兩岸政策上亦將自己用油漆刷進「否認九二共識」的牆角。此種處境，應當皆非蔡英文的初始心願，但何以一而再、再而三的事與願違，以致事事皆弄得身不由己，進退失據？

此際的蔡英文，在綠營內部、台灣社會及兩岸之間，處處面對心想事不成的困境；此時的蔡英文，其所言所行，顯然已迥異二○○八年四月間的蔡英文。形勢比人強，蔡英文回不去了；但倘若就此橫了心，不斷事與願違地走下去，將伊於胡底？