Crisis of Confidence in Tsai Government

Crisis of Confidence in Tsai Government 
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
June 16, 2016

Executive Summary: Tsai Ing-wen's new government is not yet beyond repair. But it must enage in thorough soul-searching. It must see the danger signs. It must see where its path leads. Tsai Ing-wen's new government is wading into deep waters. It is treading on thin ice. If it fails to take proper measures, it will lose the public trust, it will lose control of the nation. The people will suffer and in time will cast the new government aside.

Full Text Below:

Trust can reduce social costs within a nation, by facilitating cooperative relationships between people. Trust is not easy to establish. When it has been lost, it is often difficult to re-establish. Trust is a form of social capital. If people lose trust in the government, the government loses its mandate to lead the people. This is definitely an uneasy situation for any society.

In contrast to past administrations, the new government had four long months to prepare. Yet only one month after assuming power, the public has reached a reluctant conclusion. This new administration, dominated by a single party, one that enjoys “total government”, is an utterly clueless Rube Goldberg assembly. Tsai Ing-wen's new government now faces a challenge -- not from opposition political parties, but from the general public. This crisis of confidence is the result of structural contradictions and duplicity, of majoritarian arrogance and the betrayal of social justice, of haste and callousness that have led to loose cannon policy formulation.

This crisis of confidence in the new government manifests itself in a number of ways, and on many occasions. These include cross-Strait relations and relations between the ruling and opposition parties during legislative interpolation. They include the new government's distorted representations of history and national identity. This crisis shows no signs of subsiding, but only of worsening. Confidence in the new government's economic and trade strategy, and whether it can protect Taiwan's interests, is also rapidly diminishing.

DPP leaders at the city mayor and county chief level may enjoy popular support. But governing the nation is not the same as governing cities and counties. Local leaders may resort to emotional appeals to whitewash poor governance. They can pass the buck to the central government. But the central government must deal with international realpolitik, where the order of the say is “survival of the fittest”. Foreign competitors are not about to lend it a helping hand. Fail while enjoying “total government” and one must answer for it. Domestically, one will have no one to pass the buck to. Internationally, passing the buck to foreigners will be like shouting into the wind.

Governing a nation can be divided into two parts. One involves international strategic capability. One involves domestic governance. The moment the new government took office, it decided on several strategies. Culturally and educationally, it adopted an "Original Inhabitants History" strategy. It refused to correct fallacies in public school history texts. It distanced itself from Chinese culture. It embarked on wholesale de-Sinicization. Premier Lin Chuan even parroted the "Some comfort women volunteered" line promulgated by “History for Subjects of the Japanese Emperor".

In foreign trade, the new government proposes to "say goodbye to dependence on a single market". It proposes a "New Southern Strategy" that will weaken cross-Strait trade. In foreign policy, it hopes to join Shinzo Abe's "alliance of values", highlighting Taiwan's "anti-China" status.

The impact of the new government's strategy of cultural de-Sinicization, economic weakening of cross-Strait trade, and military alliances against the Mainland, is no longer limited to CCP decision-makers. It now includes the Mainland public. It now undermines their belief in DPP sincerity. This crisis of confidence is more terrifying than anything else imagineable. It will make the Taiwan Affairs Office increasingly wary about future concessions to the DPP government.

In terms of domestic governance, only one month after taking office, the new government is considering restarting the Number One Nuclear Power Plant. Tsai Ing-wen put it clearly.  She said "We will not force people to choose between power shortages and nuclear power generation”. This constitutes a public admission that the DPP's "nuclear free homeland” pipe dream has bowed to reality. During her election campaign, Tsai Ing-wen vowed not to reduce the number of legal holidays below seven. Now that the DPP is in power however, it is preparing to cut them. As a result labor groups are protesting in front of the Executive Yuan. Nuclear energy issues and labor issues amount to a crisis of confidence, not just for the DPP administration and the legislative caucus. They amount to a crisis of confidence in the DPP among green camp voters.

The DPP treats the affairs of the nation as child's play. The list of examples is endless. The new Minister of Defense minister shipped 40,000 artillery shells to Taiping Island, raising alarms with the United States. The Ministry of Defense immediately covered for him, and said the shells were sent to Dongsha and Nansha instead. This 70-year-old minister told young people “When war comes, you must bravely march onto the battlefield and sacrifice your lives for the nation with a smile on your face”. The new Minister of Foreign Affairs flagrantly  violated and conscience and her oath of office. She refused to say that Cong Zi Niao Reef is a reef, but instead claimed that its legal status is undetermined. On matters of national defense and foreign affairs, key officials have already seriously undermined trust in the new government's judgement and honesty.

Tsai Ing-wen's “vow of humility” still echoes in our ears. Yet she has in already given former President Ma Ying-jeou the cold shoulder. She refused to allow him go to Hong Kong to deliver a speech. Instead she granted former DPP president Chen Shui-bian medical parole. She characterized Chen Shui-bian's political fundraising dinner as a "healing”. She even thanked him for “his willingness to sit in a box seat”. If this is what the DPP considers "transitional justice", how the KMT and DPP possibly trust each other?

The crisis of confidence facing Tsai Ing-wen's new government is not confined to any single issue. It involves a chain of connected issues. It is the result of de-Sinicization, of intentionally weakened links to the Mainland, of opposing the Mainland while pretending to “maintain the status quo”. It is the result of meeting the demands of the opposition, while neglecting the demands of one's office. The new government's “transitional justice” rationalizes its failings while concealing its opportunism. Its internal contradictions have led to a crisis of confidence in the new government.

Tsai Ing-wen's new government is not yet beyond repair. But it must enage in thorough soul-searching. It must see the danger signs. It must see where its path leads. Tsai Ing-wen's new government is wading into deep waters. It is treading on thin ice. If it fails to take proper measures, it will lose the public trust, it will lose control of the nation. The people will suffer and in time will cast the new government aside.

社論－蔡英文政府的信任危機 瀕臨爆發
2016年06月16日 04:10 主筆室

「信任」可以減少社會運作的成本，也可以簡化人與人的合作關係。「信任」建立不易，卻可頃刻瓦解且難以再立。「信任」本身就是一項社會資本，如果人民失去對政府的信任，政府會逐漸喪失其引領社會的正當性，這個社會絕對是處於不安的情境。

相較以往，這次新政府的籌備期有長達4個月之久。但是，上任1個月的表現，卻讓外界感覺到，這個一黨獨大、完全執政的新政府是一輛毫無章法、匆匆上路的拼裝車。蔡英文新政府已經面臨到的，不是來自於在野黨政治權力的挑戰，而是最根本的信任危機。這些信任危機有的來自於結構性的矛盾，致使想法與作為表裡不一；也有的來自於多數權力的傲慢，偏離社會公義；還有的來自於草率地恣意妄為，致使荒腔走板。

新政府的信任危機出現在多方面。有兩岸間、朝野政黨間、立法行政間；在史觀認同、國家認同方面的信任危機，不但未見紓緩，反而更形深化；其對外經貿安全戰略能否確保台灣利益也出現信任危機。

或許在縣市首長層級，民進黨首長可以得到民眾的普遍支持，但是治國與治市畢竟是兩回事。地方首長可以用與人民博感情方式來掩蓋施政的不力，也可以將過失責任推給中央，但是中央卻必須面對優勝劣敗的國際權力競逐事實，外在競爭者不會雪中送炭，也不會錦上添花。完全執政的政府做不好，對內無責可推，對外沒人理會。

國家的治理可以分為兩大部分，一為涉外整體戰略能力，一為對內治理能力。新政府一上任就確定了幾個台灣的戰略方向。在文化教育上，採用「原民史觀」，廢除課綱微調，疏離中華文化，行「去中國」路線。林全院長甚而說出「慰安婦一些是自願」的談話，靠近日本的「皇民史觀」。

在對外經貿上，主張要「告別以往過於依賴單一市場的現象」，希望透過「新南向政策」的推動，形成「弱兩岸經貿」的事實。在對外安全上，希望能加入日本安倍晉三所倡導的「價值同盟」，凸顯台灣「抗中」的角色。

這種「文化去中、經貿弱中、安全抗中」的戰略選擇，所衝擊到的已經不只是中共的決策階層，更包括了大陸民間輿論對民進黨政府推動兩岸關係的信任，這種危機比什麼都可怕，也會使得國台辦未來在面對民進黨政府時更為戒慎恐懼，不敢輕率讓步。

在內部治理方面，新政府上任才1個月就考慮重啟「核一」運轉。蔡英文更明白地對外表示，「不會讓人民，只能在『缺電』和『核電』之間二選一」。這等於公開承認民進黨「廢核家園」理想最終可能向現實低頭。蔡英文選前曾承諾不會刪除7天勞工假期，但是民進黨一執政就準備砍假，勞工團體因此到行政院抗議。在核能與勞工議題上，存在的已經不僅是民進黨行政與立法團隊間的信任危機，更是綠營選民對民進黨的信任危機。

一些把國家事當兒戲的例子更是層出不窮。新任國防部長可以自爆要送4萬枚炮彈到南沙太平島，引起美國高度關切後，國防部為了掩過立刻澄清這批炮彈是送去東沙而非南沙，這位已經70多歲的部長還告訴年輕人，當戰爭來臨時，要勇敢走向戰場，「含笑」為國犧牲。新任外交部長也可以公開違背自己的知識與良心，不再說沖之鳥是個礁，反而主張其法律地位未定。國防與外交是國家大事，大政要員如此表現，已經嚴重傷害人民對新政府判斷力與誠實的信任。

蔡英文的「三個謙卑說」言猶在耳，但轉過頭來卻很霸氣地給馬英九前總統一個閉門羹，不讓他去香港發表演說，卻讓同黨的陳水扁前總統保外就醫備受禮遇，將陳水扁「會客」解釋成有益身心的「治療」活動，還感謝他願意委屈在「包廂」中會客。如果這就是民進黨所說的「轉型正義」，國、民兩黨之間還會有什麼信任可言？

蔡英文新政府所面臨的信任危機是環環相扣、節節相連，已經不是單一的一個點，而是由「去中、弱中、抗中／維持現狀」、「貫徹在野訴求／肩負執政責任」、「轉型正義／護短循私」所引發的結構性矛盾，這使得新政府的信任已經有全面崩裂的跡象。

蔡英文新政府要彌補的也不是點的修補，而應全面反思。見微知著，見始知終，蔡英文新政府若不能再有臨深履薄的戒慎，信任必將盡失，失去信任，施政必將失敗，將帶給人民苦難悲怨，遭人唾棄。