Fear Blind Alleys, Not Hairpin Turns

Fear Blind Alleys, Not Hairpin Turns
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
June 8, 2016

Executive Summary: Premier Lin is "considering restarting the Number One Nuclear Power Plant, Number One Generator”. This shows he has a clear understanding of the reality of domestic supply. The public must not blame him or mock him for telling the truth. Instead it should applaud him. In fact, those who are taking pot shots at Lin Chuan are reckless fools charging headlong toward a precipice. Energy policy hairpin turns are nothing to fear. The only thing one must fear is energy policy blind alleys.

Full Text Below:

Premier Lin Chuan recently said the need for electricity may require the reactivation of the Number One Nuclear Power Plant, provided it is adjudged safe. It would be reactivated but not expanded. No sooner had he spoken, than a public outcry erupted. The new government swore that the elimination of nuclear power plants would not lead to power shortages. Yet not long after taking office, it completely reversed itself. Within two days, the green camp's own legislators and a former chairman of the Nuclear Energy Commission expressed opposition. The Number One Nuclear Power Plant, Number One Generator was once again stillborn. The new government totally reversed its energy policy twice in two days. The new government's commitment to its own policies is so feeble, even cabinet members are unwilling to stand behind the Premier. As a result the public is deeply concerned.

The new government's energy policy reversal was the result of high temperatures increasing electricity consumption, and a malfunction in the Number Six Thermal Power Plant in Taichung. By May 31, the standby capacity transfer rate had fallen to a mere 1.64%, the lowest in a decade. Another major plant failure, and Taiwan will immediately experience power shortages and brownouts. In order to meet power demands that day, Taipower even ordered thermal power plants operated above their rated capacities. The new Number One Thermal Power Plant in Linkou, which is not even officially in service, was “test run”. Only by adding its generating capacity were demands for power met, and then just barely.

This wave of power shortages was hardly a bolt out of the blue. This newspaper's editorials have warned about the danger for two years. Taiwan's stable power supply is disintegrating. With nuclear power or without, the government must respond, ASAP. Unfortunately, the Ma government failed to prevent the mothballing of the Number Four Nuclear Power Plant. It also failed to solve the problem of waste disposal for the Number One and Number Two plants. Before taking office, the DPP swore that the closing of nuclear power plants would not lead to power shortages. It coordinated with local governments to limit construction of thermal power plants in order to reduce air pollution. This string of evens has led Taiwan to the edge of a precipice.

Premier Lin wants to restart the Number One Nuclear Power Plant, Number One Generator. The new government's energy policy has now come full circle. But what is the alternative? Force the public and industry to suffer power shortages?

The new government's energy policy has been condemned by domestic experts and the business community. A few days ago the American Chamber of Commerce issued its 2016 Taiwan White Paper. The paper reminded the new government of the need for a detailed energy plan to ensure a stable and affordable power supply. The report said that Taiwan relies almost entirely on imported energy. The abolition of nuclear power generation would lead to power shortages. Can the shortages be made up by renewable energy? The government must provide clear data to support its case.

Energy policy requires a clear recognition of reality. Only then are solutions possible. Only then can one achieve a balance between safe energy generation, stable power supplies, environmental protection, and affordable electricity rates. Lin Chuan performed a reality check. That was why he proposed restarting the Number One Nuclear Power Plant, Number One Generator. Alas, such a glaringly apparent policy reversal gored the party's anti-nuclear sacred cow. Therefore the only thing it could do was slam on the brakes and reverse its policy a second time.

The proposal to restart the Number One Nuclear Power Plant, Number One Generator met with widespread resistance. But the Executive Yuan had a way out. It reaffirmed its goal of a “nuclear-free homeland by 2025”. It ordered Taipower to issue a transparent electricity supply report, and the Ministry of Economic Affairs to implement energy-saving measures. Can the Number One Nuclear Power Plant, Number One Generator really be restarted? The Nuclear Energy Commission would issue an assessment for public evaluation. But these were merely delaying tactics, means by which to avoid confroting problems rather than adopt a pragmatic approach.

First of all, Taipower publishes long-term energy plans and domestic energy supply assessments on an annual basis. Over the past two years, the nation's generating equipment transfer capacity rate has ranged between 14.7% and 11.5%. This year the estimated rate is 9.2%. This is the first time in seventeen years it has fallen below 10%. Last year the government repeatedly warned about inadequate power supplies. This year's situation will only be worse. The information issued by Taipower is already crystal clear. The DPP is deliberately being evasive, pretending not to see. Roy S. Lee recently assured the business community that “there will be no power shortages this year". A few days later, upon assuming office, he changed his tune, saying "We cannot guarantee that there will be no power shortages". Cleary he realized the problem was not so simple.

Besides, the Nuclear Energy Commission only recently issued a press release. It said the Number One Nuclear Power Plant, Number One Generator has already undergone "Taiwan Power Company safety checks, confirming its operational safety, and the information has already been made available to the public". In other words, the Nuclear Eneregy Commission has already acknowledged that the Number One Nuclear Power Plant, Number One Generator, is safe and can operated without fear. Yet Nuclear Energy Commission Chairman Hsieh Hsiao-hsin said doubts remain, and the Executive Yuan wants the Nuclear Energy Commission to issue a safety report. What is this, if not flagrant evasion?

Premier Lin is "considering restarting the Number One Nuclear Power Plant, Number One Generator”. This shows he has a clear understanding of the reality of domestic supply. The public must not blame him or mock him for telling the truth. Instead it should applaud him. In fact, those who are taking pot shots at Lin Chuan are reckless fools charging headlong toward a precipice. Energy policy hairpin turns are nothing to fear. The only thing one must fear is energy policy blind alleys.

政策不怕髮夾彎，只怕開進死胡同
2016-06-08 聯合報

閣揆林全日前說，考量電力需求，核一廠一號機若經評估安全，可思考在不延役的情況下重新啟用。此話一出，輿論譁然，認為強調反核也不缺電的新政府上任未久即如此政策大轉彎不可思議。短短兩天內，綠營自家立委與原能會主委都表態反對，核一一號機重啟案又幾乎瀕於胎死腹中。新政府能源政策兩天內兩度髮夾彎，政策脆弱到連閣員都不挺閣揆，讓人看得膽戰心驚。

此次能源政策急轉彎，緣於上月底氣溫飆高帶動用電量，加上台中火力發電廠六號機故障停機，卅一日當天備轉容量率僅剩一．六四％，創十年新低。只要再有一部大型發電機組故障，台灣立刻面臨缺電與限電。當天，為了撐過燃眉之急，台電甚至要求部分火力電廠「超載運轉」，連尚未正式服役的林口火力發電廠新一號機都以「試運轉」名義併聯發電，才勉強因應。

這波供電緊張，事前並非毫無跡象。本報兩年來社論多次警告：台灣穩定供電的優勢正在崩解，無論要不要核電，政府都必須及早因應。遺憾的是，馬政府擋不住核四封存，對核一、核二核廢料爆滿問題也拿不出魄力解決；此外，民進黨執政前強調反核也不會缺電，並串聯各地方政府要求限縮火力電廠以降低空汙。一連串的變化，將台灣推向缺電的懸崖。

林揆思考重啟核一一號機，確使新政府能源政策繞了一個極大的髮夾彎；但是，若不轉彎，難道要全民與企業墜入缺電的深谷？

新政府的能源政策，不僅國內專家和工商界看衰，日前美國商會發表二○一六年台灣白皮書，也特地提醒新政府應提出詳細的能源計畫，確保台灣享有穩定且具成本競爭力的電力供應。美國商會說，台灣幾乎所有能源皆仰賴進口，廢核之後的缺口是否能靠節電與再生能源補足，政府必須提出明確且有數據佐證的能源計畫。

能源計畫的制訂，首須認清現實，再尋求各種可以運用的方案，最後在能源安全、供電穩定、環境保護、和電價成本四個面向中找到一個平衡方案。林全因為「認清現實」，所以說出「思考重啟核一一號機」；問題是，這個髮夾彎轉彎轉得太大，立刻牴觸黨內的反核神主牌，只好再轉一次髮夾彎，緊急煞車。

對於重啟核一一號機的阻力橫生，行政院的下台階，除了重申二○二五非核家園目標不變外，並要求台電提出透明公開的供電與用電狀況，並請經濟部努力落實節能措施；至於核一一號機是否真能重啟，則由原能會提供評估報告供社會檢驗。這些作法，其實都是緩兵之計，而不是面對問題的務實作法。

首先，台電每年都會公布中長期電源開發方案，對國內供電情況預作評估。過去兩年，我國供電備轉容量率分別是十四．七％與十一．五％，今年的預測值則是九．二％，是十七年來首度低於十％。去年，我國已多次出現供電不足警訊，今年情況只會比去年更糟。因此，台電的資訊其實已經很清楚，而是民進黨刻意迴避問題，裝作看不到。經長李世光就任前曾向企業界保證「今年不缺電」，上任沒幾天即改口「不保證不缺電」，應該就是意識到問題不簡單。

再者，原能會日前才發布新聞稿說，一號機「已完成審查台電公司安全分析和處理措施，確認繼續運轉之安全性，相關資訊均對外公布」。換言之，原能會已確認一號機運轉安全性無虞，但原能會主委謝曉星卻說重啟核一有疑慮，而政院還要原能會公布安全報告，這難道不是推託之詞？

林揆「思考核一一號機重啟」，顯示他已認清國內供電現實，各界不應苛責、挖苦，反而應給予正面看待。事實上，那些砲打林全的人，恐怕才是直衝懸崖的莽夫。能源政策不怕髮夾彎，就怕駛進死胡同。