Tsai Ing-wen's Three Major Problems

Tsai Ing-wen's Three Major Problems
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
June 20, 2016

Executive Summary: After one month in office, the challenges faced by Tsai Ing-wen are clear. She must stabilize the cabinet and ministries. She must end administration policy flip-flops. The new government's image is steadily being eroded. The public will soon lose its patience. Once that happens, any policy reform whatsoever will be difficult. The difficulties encountered by Ma Ying-jeou during his second term of office prove that.

Full Text Below:

Since her inauguration on May 20, President Tsai Ing-wen has been in office three full months. Polls show her public approval rating at around 50%. Apparently a majority supports her leadership. But Premier Lin Chuan's approval rating is nearly 10 points lower, indicating public dissatisfaction with the new cabinet.

The gap in approval ratings for Tsai Ing-wen and Lin Chuan is intriguing for three reasons. First, the Cabinet Chief's lower approval rating may be the result of either personal faux pas or extreme policy statements. For this, Lin Chuan must bear full responsibility. It also reveals uneven quality among cabinet members. Second, the chaos within the cabinet makes Tsai Ing-wen's role as  head of state even more essential. The public distinguishes between the two. It does not consider them the same. Third, the public still has high hopes for the new government. It is still willing to give the new president time to improve. Alas, no one knows when public discontent with the cabinet chief will burn through the firewall between the Office of the President and the Executive Yuan. The new government cannot afford to be careless about this.

One month after taking office, Tsai Ing-wen's status was secure. She concentrated on visiting the armed forces, and called for unity. She met with foreign dignitaries. As a finishing touch, she participated in various social activities to prove she was a “woman of the people”. Cabinet ministers were reckless. She used her status in the party and the government to mollify green camp legislators. She invited government heads into her home and communicated with them. She differed from Chen Shui-bian, a loose cannon. She also differed from Ma Ying-jeou, who stood on the front lines with a target painted on his back. This has helped her maintain her stature as president. It has also provided the new government room to retreat and flexibility in decision-making.

In any event, after one month in office, the challenges faced by Tsai Ing-wen are clear. She must stabilize the cabinet and ministries. She must end administration policy flip-flops. The new government's image is steadily being eroded. The public will soon lose its patience. Once that happens, any policy reform whatsoever will be difficult. The difficulties encountered by Ma Ying-jeou during his second term of office prove that.

In summary, Tsai Ing-wen faces three major problems, each of which require her personal attention. The first problem is the gap between electoral politics and the reality of governance. During Tsai Ing-wen's presidential campaign, she opposed certain policies out of sheer spite. She failed to consider the issues with due diligence. Now that she is in power, she finds herself out of touch with reality. During the past month, she has completely reversed herself on one policy after another. Even cabinet members charged with carrying out her imperial edicts are grumbling. Electoral politics is running head on into harsh reality. Tsai must either collide with reality head on, derail, or make a “hairpin turn”. The most obvious example is her ostensibly unshakable commitment to a nuclear free homeland. Power shortages loom. Yet her only response was to ask universities to conserve electricity, or return to old-fashioned hydropower. Are these really wise moves? Tsai Ing-wen's only solution is to default on her campaign promises and confront harsh reality.

The second problem she faces, is friction between the new government and the new ruling party. The Lin Chuan cabinet stresses its "professionalism". As such, its cabinet members lack political sensitivity. When cabinet ministers speak out, they frequently touch sensitive political nerves. This includes peripheral appointees, several of whom have angered DPP legislators. Unfortunately, if Tsai is too accommodating towards the party, the result will be an image of green camp favoritism, which would undermine her status as head of state. She would also be responsible for the misallocation of national resources. Tsai Ing-wen is both DPP chairman and ROC president. As such, she must master communications. Otherwise, if she leaves an impression of favoritism, she will find it difficult to retain public respect.

The third problem is that her cross-Strait policy, which puts the ROC at an economic and diplomatic disadvantage. The new government longs to rid itself of economic dependence on the Mainland. It longs to develop relations with Southeast Asia. Affirming the sovereignty of the Republic of China is are the right thing to do. But implementation must be prudent. One cannot suddenly deny the importance of the Mainland market, or even the benefits of cross-Strait exchanges, on the assumption that one can “pick chestnuts out of the fire”. The public expects the new government to revive Taiwan's economy. But cross-Strait relations have become increasingly tense. The first victim of such tensions will be the economy. The stalled STA talks have undermined our export competitiveness. Fewer Mainland tourists has cut into vendor profits. Once the flames of diplomatic war erupt, they will be difficult to extinguish. Tsai Ing-wen must persuade Taiwan independence elements to change course. At the very least, she must have the courage to get out from under their thumb. Otherwise the new government, which is currently walking a tightrope, cannot possibly achive prosperity for Taiwan.

Taiwan politics, which has long been divided along blue vs. green lines, remains trapped within a whirlpool. Tsai Ing-wen's honeymoon period is not quite over. But Lin Chuan's honeymoon period is about to end. Genuine vigilance is the order of the day.

聯合／蔡英文執政滿月的三大難題
2016-06-20 01:39 聯合報 聯合報社論

分享五二○就任至今，蔡英文總統執政正好滿月。綜觀各方的民調，蔡英文的滿意度在五成上下，可見多數國人對其領導表示支持；然而，閣揆林全的滿意度低她近十個百分點，顯示新內閣的表現無法讓民眾滿意。
蔡英文與林全的偌大支持差距，耐人尋味。其中原因有三：第一，內閣首長狀況頻傳，或因個人言行失當，或因政策發言偏頗，均須由林全概括承受，這也暴露了閣員素質不齊。第二，相對於新閣的亂象橫生，蔡英文的元首角色詮釋更為妥貼，民眾也能區辨兩者之別，未混為一談。第三，民眾對於新政府仍然頗有期待，願意多給新總統一些時間改善；問題是，民眾對內閣首長頻頻凸槌的怒火，不知何時便會燒過府院之間的防火線，新政府不能不謹慎以對。

蔡英文上任一個月來的表現，堪稱穩健。她集中心力走訪三軍號召團結，不時接見外賓，並畫龍點睛地參與社會活動，表現元首親民的一面；對於內閣部長的暴衝，她則利用黨政平台安撫綠委，並在家中設宴與首長溝通。比較起來，她不像陳水扁那樣動輒暴走，也不像馬英九那樣直接站上火線挑起話題；這除了有助於她保持總統高度，也讓政府決策多了一些進退彈性和轉圜空間。

無論如何，經過一個月的考驗，蔡英文面對的挑戰其實也很清楚：如果她不能提升內閣部會的穩定度，如果行政決策一直處於東拉西扯、碰碰撞撞的狀態，新政府的形象勢必日漸磨損，民眾的耐性也將迅速耗光。屆時，要再推動什麼改革，恐怕就困難重重。這點，馬英九第二任期內的困頓，就是最佳的殷鑑。

歸納而言，蔡英文面對的是三大難題，每一項都需要她親手解決。第一道難題，是競選政見與施政現實的差距。蔡英文的競選政見是在野時所提出，當時或許為了反對而反對，或許因未及深思熟慮，如今到了實踐時刻，未免與現實有所扞格。一個月來出現諸多的政策「髮夾彎」，乃至閣員奉若聖旨的一些論調，問題都出在競選政見與社會現實碰撞，發生了脫軌現象或被迫轉彎。其中最明顯的例子是，廢核的承諾不可動搖，但眼看著缺電危機迫在眉睫，卻只能求諸大學節電、或重返水力發電等「古方」，果真是明智之舉嗎？解決之道，恐怕蔡英文必須適度修改選舉支票，以符合兌現之可能。

第二道難題，是新政府與執政黨的磨合。林全內閣的組成強調的是「專業」，相對而言，閣員的政治性格和政治敏感度則普遍偏弱；也因此，許多閣員的發言動輒挑動社會神經，包括一些周邊的人事任命，都讓民進黨立委破口大罵。問題在，如果過度遷就黨意，勢必形成對綠營的「偏袒」，喪失國家元首的超然，也造成國家資源分配的誤用。這點，蔡英文既然黨政雙駕，即必須妥慎拿捏溝通；否則，若留下徇私的口實，即難以再獲民眾尊重。

第三道難題，是現行兩岸政策對經濟和外交的不利。新政府要擺脫對中國大陸的經濟依賴，要建立主權尊嚴，要發展與東南亞的關係，都是正確的目標；問題是，作法上應該穩健以行，不宜驟然否定中國大陸市場的重要性，甚至否定兩岸既有的良好交流，卻以為可以火中取栗。目前民眾對新政府期待最深的，正是台灣經濟的重振；但兩岸關係轉趨緊張，首當其衝的必然是經濟，不僅服貿貨貿停議影響廠商出口競爭，包括陸客減少都會影響攤商經濟。一旦外交烽火點燃，勢必更難收拾。關鍵在，蔡英文必須在兩岸政策上設法說服獨派，或至少要有勇氣擺脫其牽制；否則，要在鋼索上打造富強的台灣，豈有可能？

台灣的政治，在藍綠二分後，已陷入一種相互牽制的漩渦。蔡英文的蜜月期餘溫猶在，但林全的蜜月期轉瞬即逝，實值得警惕。