China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 13, 2016
Executive Summary: Only the United States and Mainland hold the power of life and death over Taiwan. Only they can determine Taiwan's long-term stability. Japan has never been a major factor. Japan wants Taiwan to join its anti-China coalition. That is something that can be considered. But Japan must have the strength and strategies to provide Taiwan with strategic guarantees. It must demonstrate its trustworthiness. The Tsai government must not trade illusory Japanese fireworks displays, only to risk our national security in return.
Full Text Below:
A stable nation requires a stable national security strategy. If its strategic framework develops problems or becomes distorted, the nation will experience internal divisions and encounter external conflict.
During the Ma era, the government maintained a policy of being “close to the US, at peace with the Mainland, and friendly with Japan”. Consequently despite its one China policy, the US defended the cross-Strait status quo. Despite its one China policy, the Mainland promoted cross-Strait peace. Based on the 1992 Consensus and one China, different interpretations, Taipei maintained relations with both the United States and the Mainland. Despite the three sides' different perspectives, Taipei was able to maintain the “status quo” that the Tsai regime currently enjoys and benefits from.
The new government asserts that it is "maintaining the status quo", even as it dismantles the existing national security framework. First, the new government is abandoning the 1992 Consensus. It is rejecting the "Two Sides, One China" premise embodied in the Constitution. It asserts that it is doing its utmost to “be at peace with China”, even though it has turned a deaf ear to political signals from the Mainland. Communications have been severed between the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS). Communications between the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) and the Mainland's Taiwan Affairs Office have been severed as well. Official government to government contacts no longer exist. Communications through ECFA have also reportedly ceased. The consequences extend far beyond the initially anticipated reduction in Mainland tourism and short-term cessation in exchange students.
Meanwhile, the Tsai government has stepped up its efforts to "be close to the US" and "friendly with Japan". President Tsai has repeatedly begged the US to support Taiwan's membership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The cabinet is preparing to allow the importation of US pork containing Ractopamine. The Minister of Defense has informed the Legislative Yuan of the transport of 40,000 artillery shells to Taiping Island. The Minister of Foreign Affairs has been forced to apologize to the AIT and offer an explanation. Six former AIT Taipei Office Directors have given current US-Taiwan relations a thumbs up. The Chairman of the US Senate Armed Services Committee, led by John McCain, will lead the largest congressional delegation to Taiwan in recent years. As we can see, we have sacrificed real benefits in exchang for a fireworks display from the US. Once the fireworks are over, there will be nothing left to see.
Being "friendly with Japan" is even more baffling.
Since the Tsai government came to power, it has issued reckless statements about the status of Cong Zi Niao Reef, all the way from "Its status is undetermined" to "It's a reef". It has promised that negotiations in July will settle the matter satisfactorily, and that "The Cong Zi Niao Reef issue is no longer a fashionable topic". Does the new government even give a damn about Taiwan fishermen and their survival? It intends to permit the importation of irradiated foodstuffs from Fukushima, but has yet to formulate a credible policy. The Tsai government has assigned DPP heavyweights Chiou I-jen and Frank Hsieh to handle relations with Japan. The Tsai government has, intentionally or otherwise, leaked word that bilateral relations may be revised. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sent his younger brother Nobuo Kishi to meet with President Tsai. These developments clearly show that Tsai Ing-wen intends to chummy up to Japan. We have yet to mention the photo op with Abe's mother seated next to President Tsai, deliberately intended to underscore friendly relations. To the Taiwan public, this was a dazzling fireworks display.
But national interests are not fireworks displays. Fireworks displays may catch our eye, but once they are over, nothing of substance remains. Among nations, friendship is fleeting, interests alone are enduring. If we give Japan what it wants, what will Japan give us in return? What can Japan give us in return? Abe has long hoped to draw Taiwan into Japan's anti-China coalition. But it has not been willing to pay a price. Now the Tsai government has sacrificed Taiwan fishermens' fishing rights and Taiwan consumers' right to food safety -- merely to curry favor with Japan, in return for what?
From a larger national security perspective, the Tsai government has departed from the status quo. It is moving step by step toward a whole new state of affairs, one lacking any corresponding security framework. In other words, the Tsai government may have promised to "maintain the status quo". It then put on a dazzling fireworks display. But amidst all the fireworks, one finds nothing of substance. What, amidst all the fireworks, happened to our national interests?
Taiwan's historical origins and geographical location mean that economically and culturally we must deal with the Mainland, Japan, and the United States. Relations with all three are unavoidable. Taiwan must understand its political and security relationship with the United States and the Mainland. Japan can do no more than negotiate the middle ground between the United States and the Mainland. That is not something Taiwan can change.
As the above shows, only the United States and Mainland hold the power of life and death over Taiwan. Only they can determine Taiwan's long-term stability. Japan has never been a major factor. Japan wants Taiwan to join its anti-China coalition. That is something that can be considered. But Japan must have the strength and strategies to provide Taiwan with strategic guarantees. It must demonstrate its trustworthiness. The Tsai government must not trade illusory Japanese fireworks displays, only to risk our national security in return.
如耀眼煙花的台日關係 非常危險
2016年06月13日 中國時報
要有穩定的國家，先要有穩定的國家大戰略，一旦大戰略架構出現問題或傾斜，國家就會出現內部對峙與外部緊張。
馬政府時代，大致維持親美、和中、友日的大架構；與此相應的外部環境是：美國在自己定義的一中政策下維持兩岸現狀；大陸也在其定義的一中政策下推動兩岸和平發展；台北則依據「九二共識、一中各表」推動對美國與中國大陸的關係，三方定義不同，仍然搭建起一個迄今蔡政府仍然受惠的「現狀」。
新政府宣稱「維持現狀」，卻開始實質改變國家安全大戰略架構。首先，可以看到新政府放棄了原先的九二共識，也不接受「兩岸一中」的憲法定位，宣稱將致力「和中」，卻峻拒大陸釋出的所有政治訊號。我們看到海基、海協兩會斷訊，陸委會和中共國台辦失聯，原先眾多的小兩會也紛紛音訊不通，政府間的實際功能已然歸零，ECFA下的兩岸經合會也告停。這還不算原先的契作停止、陸客驟減、短期交換生終止等。
與此同時，蔡英文政府卻加大「親美」、「友日」力度。蔡總統一再呼籲美方支持台灣加入《跨太平洋夥伴協定》（TPP），內閣閣員則放話準備開啟重大爭議的含萊克多巴胺的美豬進口；國防部長在立法院宣布運送4萬枚炮彈往太平島，外交部長立即被迫前往在台協會道歉解釋。我們同時也看到6任的在台協會台北辦事處處長豎起大姆指稱讚當前的美台關係；美國參院軍事委員會主席麥侃率領近年來最大的議員團訪台；在這一幅圖像中，我們看到的是，我們付出實際利益作代價，但美國所給予的卻是過年節時的煙火，煙花過後，什麼都沒有留下。
至於在「友日」方面，更是令人納悶。
蔡政府從上台起，在沖之鳥礁定位上的發言就是荒腔走板，從「未定」到「是礁」，到7月談判必能滿意，再到「沖之鳥話題不流行了」；真不知道政府把漁民賴以維生的漁權問題，當成什麼來看？意圖開放福島含輻射食品進口，卻也不見一個可信的處理方式。從蔡政府先後派出邱義仁和謝長廷這些民進黨籍的重量級大員處理對日關係來看，再加上蔡政府有意無意間釋出的「修補」雙方關係的說法，以及日本派出首相安倍之弟岸信夫與蔡總統會面一事上，都充分顯示出，蔡英文政府的政策是要向日本方面靠攏，這還不包括安倍之母與蔡總統兩人刻意比鄰而坐，以顯示雙方關係的友好。看在台灣人民的眼中，這又是一個美麗的煙花。
國家利益不是放煙火，不能看時很美，看過後什麼都不留下；國家的友情是短暫的，利益才是永遠的。如果我們給了日本想要的，日本會給我們什麼？日本能給我們什麼？日本長期以來，一直希望拉攏台灣進入日本安倍政府意圖架構的反中聯盟，卻不願支付任何代價；在這一點上，尤其是蔡政府願意捨棄諸如漁民捕魚權、民眾食物免於恐懼權等實質利益，只為拉攏日本，那麼，日本的回報是什麼？
從廣義的國家安全角度來看，蔡政府已經偏離了現狀，正一步步走向新情勢。但我們仍然看不見一個可以維持安全的相應架構出現。換言之，蔡政府離開了她先前所承諾的「現狀」，帶來了一片耀眼的煙花，可是我們卻無法在這片煙花中，找到我們所希望的實質東西；我們要問的是，在這片煙花中，國家利益到底在哪裡？
台灣的歷史淵源及地理位置，決定我們在經濟與社會文化上必須和中國大陸、日本及美國交往，缺一不可；國際權力結構又注定，台灣在政治上必須和美國與大陸相關連，台灣只需要掌握與美國、中國大陸的政治與安全關係，日本只能、也只會在美國和中國大陸所構成的兩極中遊走，不足為台灣慮。
從上面描述中，我們可以了解，只有美國和中國大陸對台灣有生死影響力，才是長治久安要追求的結構，日本從來不是主要因素。日本希望台灣加入其抗中聯盟，不是不可以考慮，但日本必須先擁有足夠的國家實力、能對台灣提出充分的戰略保證，更要展現其可信賴度。蔡英文政府千萬不能用日本的煙花式利益，換來國家安全的風險。
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