United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 2, 2016
Executive Summary: Temperatures are soaring. Domestic power consumption is setting new records. Taiwan's reserve transfer capacity rate has plummeted to 1.64%, the lowest point in a decade. The rate is fast approaching the threshold for compulsory power rationing. Roy S. Lee, the new Minister of Economic Affairs, recently promised the business community "No power shortages for the next two years”. He quickly corrected himself, saying "We cannot guarantee that there will be no power shortages". This abrupt about face reveal that Lee's boasts bear no resemblance to reality.
Temperatures are soaring. Domestic power consumption is setting new records. Taiwan's reserve transfer capacity rate has plummeted to 1.64%, the lowest point in a decade. The rate is fast approaching the threshold for compulsory power rationing. Roy S. Lee, the new Minister of Economic Affairs, recently promised the business community "No power shortages for the next two years”. He quickly corrected himself, saying "We cannot guarantee that there will be no power shortages". This abrupt about face reveal that Lee's boasts bear no resemblance to reality.
Upon his appointment, Roy S. Lee was asked about the mothballing of the Number Four Nuclear Power Plant. Lee was supremely confident. He said that by 2025, we will have a nuclear-free homeland. "There is no room for discussion". Construction on the Number Four Nuclear Power Plant will cease. The Number One, Two, and Three Nuclear Power Plants will not be expanded. The general election showed that a nuclear-free homeland is what the public wants. Not everyone agrees, he said, but the signal is clear. He also said that by September 2025, the power grid and required generating capacity will be complete. The percentage of energy derived from renewable energy sources will approach 20%.
Roy S. Lee is committed to a nuclear-free homeland. Is he correct? Perhaps. But his attitude and rationale are wrong. First, he misinterprets the election results. The January elections showed that most voters support the ruling party. But they do not mean everyone agrees with every one of Tsai Ing-wen's policies. Still less do they mean that the voters have given Tsai Ing-wen carte blanche. Second, his timetable is wrong. Elections are held every four years. Those in power may declare their long-term goals. But even if Tsai Ing-wen wins a second term, she can remain in office only until 2024. So what is she up to? Is she providing herself with an escape hatch? Is she attempting to pass the buck to her successor? Third, his expectations are too high. Achieving a nuclear-free homeland by 2025 might be possible with real progress. But the new government is merely shouting slogans. It has no concrete real plan to achieve its goals. Its ideals are empty talk.
When the Democratic Progressive Party was out of power, it exploited the anti-nuclear and nuclear-free homeland issues. It uses them as part of its "I love Taiwan" rhetoric, and did in fact enjoy widespread support. The DPP painted a pretty picture of the future. But it never explained how it would realize these visions. It never offered any plans by which it would meet the need for generating capacity. Its "green energy" initiative has never been anything more than hot air. It has simply assumed it could achieve its objectives, without ever bothering to formulate a concrete plan of attack. When the DPP was in the opposition, people may not have minded its pie in the sky promises. But the DPP is now the ruling party, and its Minister of Economic Affairs still thinks he can use the old playbook. He thinks he need not formulate and implement a detailed plan. One really has to wonder. Does the DPP think a nuclear-free homeland going to fall out of the sky?
In early May, Roy S. Lee, promised no power shortages within two years. By late May, he had taken back his words, and reneged on his "no shortages" guarantee. A minister's "guarantee" had a shelf life of less than a month before turning rancid. How sad is that? If the temperature rises even further, Taipower will be forced to ration power. In addition to eating crow, Roy S. Lee will have to reverse himself on the mothballing and shutdown of nuclear power plants. Otherwise maintaining a normal power supply will be impossible.
The Tsai government has embarrassed itself repeatedly with its policy flip-flops on one issue after another. That it is reneging on its promise of "no power rationing" probably come as no surprise. But once power rationing and brownouts become a reality, once peoples' air-conditioning units die in the middle of a long hot summer, once their personal computer screens go black without warning, once Taipower is forced to purchase energy at exorbitant prices to meet demand during emergencies, the public will realize the price they have paid for the DPP's reckless energy policy. By then, they will have gotten a taste of the DPP's overhyped "nuclear-free homeland". By then, they will realize the price they are paying because green camp county and municipal governments oppose local thermal power plants. By then everyone will know the truth.
No one wants brownouts or power rationing. Will the recent Taipower reduction in reserve transfer capacity wake up the new government? Will it force the new government to behave more more pragmatically, and revise its energy policy? If so, perhaps it was a good thing. In fact, we have yet to see Roy S. Lee contribute anything to economic growth. His previous remarks about a nuclear-free homeland by 2025, with "no room for discussion" reveal more than lop-sided economic decision-making. They reveal arrogance and bigotry. A general election victory means qualified voter support. Roy S. Lee inflated that support in his own mind, then declared "There is no room for discussion". What sort of high-handed attitude is that? The Number Four Nuclear Power Plant cost over 200 billion dollars to construct. It is currently mothballed. If the DPP wants to dismantle it, the people deserve a referendum.
We would remind Roy S. Lee that economic growth and the normalization of generating capacity must precede the elimination of nuclear power generation. Only that is consistent with the interests of the Tsai government and its larger policy objectives.
李世光的理由是錯的
2016-06-02 聯合報
近日氣溫持續飆高，家戶用電激增破表，全台備轉容量率僅剩一．六四％的十年新低，逼近實施限電的門檻。新經濟部長李世光稍早才向工商團體拍胸脯，保證「未來兩年不會缺電」，近日連忙改口「不能保證不會缺電」。這樣的轉彎速度，暴露了他的政策大話完全跟不上社會現實。
在就任記者會上，李世光被問到核四封存問題時，他斬釘截鐵地說，二○二五年要完成非核家園，「沒有討論的餘地」；核四要停建，核一、核二、核三不延役。理由是，大選結果反映非核家園是最大公約數，雖不是全民都贊成，但是一個清楚的訊號。他並稱，到二○二五還有九年，必須把電力結構、發電機組布建完成，再生能源發電比率要達廿％。
李世光致力推動非核家園的目標或許是正確的，但他所持的理由和態度卻是錯誤的。第一，選舉解讀的錯誤：一月大選結果顯示多數民眾支持政黨輪替，卻不表示全民認同蔡英文的所有政見，更不等於全部埋單。第二，期程設定的錯誤：大選是四年為期，主政者雖可宣示長期理想，但蔡英文就算能連任，任期也只到二○二四年為止。因此，設定二○二五達成非核家園，若非在為自己預留退路，也形同把責任推給他人。第三，眼高手低的錯誤：二○二五能否達成非核家園，要看現實的進展而定；若新政府高喊口號，卻提不出足以達成目標的手段，理想也只是空話。
民進黨在野時，以反核及推動非核家園作為「愛台」訴求，確實獲得許多民眾的支持。問題在，民進黨把未來願景勾勒得如此美好，卻從未翔實指出滿足這些願景的路徑何在；不僅在電力的「供」和「需」兩端說不出平衡之計，在發電結構上所謂的「綠能」也始終只有「膨風」的假設目標，而無具體方針。民進黨在野時，人們可以不關心這些虛設的目標；如今民進黨執政了，經濟部長仍以為自己只要根據先前政見照本宣科即可，卻不落實緊盯每一個環節，試問：非核家園會從天上掉下來嗎？
五月初，李世光才保證兩年內不會缺電；五月底，他就改口收回自己「不缺電」的保證。一位部長的「保證」，竟維持不到一個月的保鮮期，即已變餿，這是多可怕的事！如果天氣的考驗更嚴峻些，一旦台電採取限電，李世光除了要面對承諾「跳票」的難堪，他關閉核電廠的原則恐怕也要改弦易轍，否則正常供電即難以為繼。
在蔡英文政府難堪的各種「髮夾彎」政策中，多一個「不限電」承諾的急轉彎，看起來似乎亦不令人意外。然而，一旦「限電」變成事實，當民眾在酷暑中要忍受突然冷氣跳電，或者電腦無預警瞬間變黑，或者台電要花更高代價去向用電大戶買電回來應急時，人們才會知道自己要為民進黨輕率的能源政策付出什麼代價。屆時，民進黨說得天花亂墜的「非核家園」究竟是什麼滋味，綠營地方縣市反火力電廠的抗爭究竟要付出什麼代價，大家即能領略其中真相。
缺電或限電不是人們希望看到的事，也因此，近日台電備轉容量降低引發的危機，若能喚起新政府的警惕，從而務實修正其能源政策並加速調整，倒不失其積極作用。事實上，我們尚未看到李世光領導經濟發展上的任何表現，但他先前那番二○二五非核家園「沒有討論餘地」之說，卻暴露了他在經濟決策順序上的失調，也暴露了他的傲慢和偏執。一次大選投票，反映的其實是對當選者有限度的支持，李世光卻自己作了太多擴充解釋，並聲稱「沒有討論餘地」，這是何等霸道的心態。何況，耗費了兩千多億興建的核四目前只是「封存」狀態，要廢掉它，政府仍欠民眾一次公投。
我們要提醒李世光：將發展經濟及正常供電放在廢核之前，才更符合蔡政府的利益和總體政策目標。
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