National Security Requires Honest Communications

National Security Requires Honest Communications
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
July 7, 2016

Executive Summary: The accidental launching of a guided missile, and the South China Sea crisis, are trials by fire for President Tsai Ing-wen and her new government. They test her ability to assess and respond to the big picture. Tsai Ing-wen's fumbling of the accidental missile launch obviously undermined her credibility. She paid too much attention to domestic political consequences, while completely ignoring the strategic picture, particularly the reaction of the Mainland. Her blindness over the South China Sea crisis is likely to lead to the same mistakes in the future. We call on Tsai to exercise caution.

Full Text Below:

The so-called “ruling” on South China Sea sovereignty will be announced tomorrow. The People's Liberation Army held a week-long large-scale military exercise in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and North China Sea. Hundreds of warships and warplanes took part in a show of force against the United States and neighboring countries. Meanwhile, on the Taiwan side, a non-commissioned officer in the ROC Navy mistakenly launched a Hsiung Feng III missile. Yet the Tsai government swept the matter under the rug. It cited "Typhoon Prevention" as pretext for the withdrawal of frigates stationed at Taiping Island. This retreat in the face of crisis has left the public on Taiwan flabbergasted.

The government's priorities must be well considered. They cannot be based on fleeting whims. Even wise men sometimes make mistakes. The Tsai government on the other hand, is totally inexperienced. Its officials do not understand their larger responsibilities. Blunders and tardy responses are inevitable. Over the past month, one blunder has followed another. That everyone has seen. The greatest danger is that Tsai government actions may appear self-assured, but may be nothing more than empty bravado or kneejerk responses. Either sends the wrong message, both domestically and internationally. This is deeply troubling.

Take the accidental missile launch for example. The Tsai government lacked all sense of urgency, proportionality, or focus. First, it Tsai government lacked all sense of urgency. It was far too slow to respond. President Tsai was in the United States when she learned of the incident. She was accompanied by the Secretary General of the National Security Council and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. She should have convened a provisional meeting of high-level national security council members immediately, in order to evaluate possible responses. Instead she “hung out” at a strictly ceremonial banquet for “overseas Taiwanese” for four long hourss, before finally convening a national security meeting. Seconds count during a national security crisis. A four hour delay during a major crisis could seriously harm the nation's interests. That is hardly something the ROC can afford.

Second, the Tsai government lacked all sense of proportionality. Its priorities were upside down. A guided missile fired in the direction of the Mainland,  is a hostile and provocative act. Even if one assumes it was a mistake, the first party that should have been notified was the Mainland. Instead, Tsai Ing-wen first notified the United States, then one by one notified Japan, Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines, pointedly ignoring Beijing. How is the other side supposed to react to Tsai's attitude? Cross-Strait relations are currently at a low ebb. But proper communications during a crisis facilitate a thaw. Unfortunately the new government's obliviousness merely made matters worse.

Third, the Tsai government lacked all sense of focus. It considered anything that might have political repercussions, but ignored everything of strategic importance. A lowly sergeant single-handedly launched a guided missile worth billions toward the Mainland. This appalling act of negligence in military weapons handling was a thousand times more serious than the death of Hung Chung-chiu. Yet the Tsai government's first concern was to shield Minister of Defense Feng Shi-kuan. It searched far and wide to hunt down those responsible for the leak. To provide the public with whipping boys for their wrath, the Tsai government ordered the naval officers to kneel before the family of the fishing boat captain. In what must be the height of absurdity, green camp legislators colluded with the green media to spin the farce as evidence of the Hsiung Feng III missile's superior performance. This amounted to a real life example of “covering one's ears while stealing a bell”. The Tsai government's response showed that it failed to engage in any soul searching whatsoever.

Now take the Tsai government's withdrawal of warships from Taiping Island. The so-called “ruling” on South China Sea sovereignty will soon be announced. Neighboring countries are on tenterhooks, closely following developments. The Republic of China clearly possesses sovereignty over Taiping Island, the largest island in the South China Sea. Yet the Tsai government chose this very moment to withdraw Coast Guard cutters from Taiping Island, and lied to the public about "Typhoon Measures". Does the Tsai government take people for fools? The Coast Guard cutters will not return to Taiping Island before the end of the typhoon season. Exactly what sort of message is the Tsai government sending to neighboring countries with this self-initiated evacuation?? What good will dispatching the warship Weihsing to the island for three to five days do?

Taiping Island is remote. It is admittedly difficult to resupply. But it has long been ROC territory. The South China Sea has enormous strategic importance. Cong Zhi Niao Reef is the size of three tamami mats. Yet Japan is busy building it up. Taiping Island, by contrast, boasts lush forests and ancient wells. Yet the Tsai government sees it as nothing more than a hot potato. Does the Tsai government intend to hand it over to others before it will be happy? President Tsai has long been mealy-mouthed in her policy pronouncements. She has habitually muddled through by talking out of both sides of her mouth. Her withdrawal of Coast Guard cutters from Taiping Island reveals her cowardice and reluctance to defend the nation's territorial sovereignty. She lacks the necessary resolve and aggressiveness. When it comes to cozying up to the US or fawning over the Japanese however, she is more than willing to be a pawn manipulated by foreign powers. That is even more inexcusable.

The accidental launching of a guided missile, and the South China Sea crisis, are trials by fire for President Tsai Ing-wen and her new government. They test her ability to assess and respond to the big picture. Tsai Ing-wen's fumbling of the accidental missile launch obviously undermined her credibility. She paid too much attention to domestic political consequences, while completely ignoring the strategic picture, particularly the reaction of the Mainland. Her blindness over the South China Sea crisis is likely to lead to the same mistakes in the future. We call on Tsai to exercise caution.

國安處理不可釋放錯誤訊息
2016-07-11 01:04 聯合報 聯合報社論

南海仲裁案宣布前夕，中共解放軍在南海舉行為期一週的大型軍事演習，出動南海、東海、北海艦隊上百艘船艦及上百架戰機進行實戰化攻防，意在向美國和周邊國家示威。在此之際，我國發生士官誤射雄三飛彈事件，蔡政府卻輕描淡寫處理，同時更以「防颱」為由撤回駐守太平島的巡防艦。這種「遇張則弛」的國安處理手法，讓人完全摸不著頭緒。

我們相信，政府處理國家要務應當經過深思熟慮，而非一時興起。但智者千慮必有一疏，且蔡政府剛剛「新手上路」，許多官員對於職務未必全盤熟悉，難免擦槍走火或因應遲緩。一個多月來閣員突槌事件頻傳，即一目了然。最怕的是，政府的因應看似成竹在胸，實則虛有其表或行禮如儀；如此一來，對內對外釋放出錯誤的訊息，不免令人擔憂。

以飛彈誤射事件為例，蔡政府的處理即暴露出失時、失衡、失焦的「三失」問題。第一，所謂「失時」，是第一時間的延宕處理。蔡總統在美接獲事件通報，即應會同隨行的國安會秘書長、外交部長召開臨時國安高層會議，研商對策；但蔡英文卻把儀式性的僑宴活動放在前面，四個多小時後才舉行國安會議。試想，國安因應分秒必爭，若遇上重大危機，四個多小時的延宕，即可能造成國家利益的嚴重損害，台灣承受得起嗎？

第二，所謂「失衡」，是指處理的輕重緩急本末倒置。飛彈朝海峽方向發射，是一種敵意及挑釁舉措，即使是誤射，首需溝通的對象當然是海峽對岸。但蔡政府先向美國通報，然後逐一告知日本、新加坡、越南和菲律賓，卻獨獨跳過北京；這樣的態度，教對岸作何感想？兩岸關係目前處於低潮自是事實，但如果在緊急時刻溝通得當，或許有助於化解冰封心結；遺憾的是，新政府的因應完全缺乏這方面的著眼，反而使雪上加霜。

第三，所謂失焦，是指處理手法充滿政治考量，該檢討的反而未加檢討。一名中士即可隻手任意發射造價上億的飛彈，是軍隊管理及武器操作上的可怕疏失，這要比洪仲丘事件嚴重千百倍；但是蔡政府的處理，卻為了要力保國防部長馮世寬，牽強地將調查方向導向偵辦「洩密」；又為了宣洩民怨，讓官兵去向受難船長家屬下跪。更荒謬的是，綠委和綠媒全力配合將發言口徑調整為誇示雄三飛彈的性能卓越，活脫脫「掩耳盜鈴」的寫照。如此偏頗的因應，到底反省了什麼？

再談太平島的撤艦。南海仲裁結果宣布在即，周邊國家無不繃緊神經，密切注意其發展。唯獨台灣，明明擁有南海最大島嶼之主權，卻在此時自甘示弱似地將駐防太平島的海巡艦撤回，而且向民眾謊稱是為了「防颱」。政府以為民眾都是無知之愚民嗎？海巡署更聲稱，在今年颱風季結束前，這些海巡艦均不會再返回太平島；這種「自唱空城」的言論，究竟想要向周邊國家發出什麼訊息？再說，昨天派出「偉星艦」，也只能填補三五天的空檔，有何作用？

太平島位處偏遠、補給不易確是事實，卻是中華民國固有疆土，更是南海戰略前哨。試想，日本連三個榻榻米大的沖之鳥礁都百般建設，台灣卻視擁有森林、古井的太平島為燙手山芋，難道要拱手讓人方才干休？蔡總統行事一向莫測高深，但即以「模糊原則」觀察此事，太平島撤艦只讓人嗅出政府怯懦、缺乏主權意識的氣味，毫無保守堅定乃至積極進取的精神。如果是為了親美媚日，而甘願充當棋子聽人擺布，那就更不可原諒。

飛彈誤射和南海風雲變化，都是對新政府國安危機處理的重大考驗，也測試蔡英文總統因應國際情勢的總體決策能力。蔡英文處理誤射事件明顯失分，主因在她過度強調國內的政治效應，而忽略總體——尤其是和對岸的關係的平衡。這樣的盲點，也可能導致她在南海問題上重蹈覆轍，我們呼籲她謹慎而行。