National Security System Failure More Serious Than Missile Launch Incident

National Security System Failure More Serious Than Missile Launch Incident
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
July 6, 2016

Executive Summary: President Tsai said the missile launch "simply should not have happened". What is that, except empty rhetoric? What really should not have happened was the National Security Council's inaction during a crisis, leaving no one minding the store. Military personnel abused dogs, and the public responded with outrage. But a guided missile was accidentally launched, and led to a national security crisis. Meanwhile, national leaders were literally out to lunch. That situation was one hundred times more serious than some nameless sergeant accidentally pushing the wrong button.

Full Text Below:

Several days ago the Jin Jiang, an ROC Navy warship mistakenly launched a Hsiung Feng III missile. So far the government has been preoccupied with assigning blame for the missile launch, and harping over matters of procedure. Worse, Lin Chuan is more concerned with hunting down who leaked information, and has strayed far from the real issue. Most worrisome of all, the two sides came closer to a shooting war than they have in a long time. The national security system responsible for security in the Taiwan Strait was slow to react, and ineffective when it did. This aspect of the incident must not be swept under the rug.

Let us review the Tsai government's reaction to the most outrageous missile fiasco in history. On July 1, at 8:15 AM, the Chin Chiang patrol vessel mistakenly launched a Hsiung Feng III missile toward the midline of the Taiwan Strait. Ten minutes later, President Tsai, who was visiting Los Angeles, and National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu, who was at her side, were notified of the incident. Yet the two lingered at a “Standing Room Only” banquet for “Overseas Taiwanese”. More than four hours later, Tsai Ing-wen notified the US. Only then did she finally convene a "high-level national security meeting" via secure communications, and take in a briefing by Deputy Secretary-General of the National Security Council Chen Jun-lin.

During this same time, President Tsai's "stand in”, Vice President Chen Chien-jen, was attending the opening ceremony of the High-Speed Rail System's Nangang Station. Defense Minister Feng Shi-kuan was greeting Tony Li, Chairman of the Friends of the ROC Military. All these were ceremonial activities. The cross-Strait hotline was no longer working. Yet that afternoon the MAC claimed it "initiated a variety of communication and liaison mechanisms" that allowed the other side to receive relevant information, in the hope that it would not misinterpret this incident. What were these channels? How effective were they? The government said what it wanted to, then ignored what anyone else had to say.

The incident had a direct bearing on national security. Yet Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Yan Tak, was kept completely out of the loop. Instead, Cabinet Chief Lin Chun, who is not directly responsible for national defense, national security, or cross-Strait relations, ran around like a headless chicken. Clearly the new government is not on track, and the national security system is in chaos.

Live missile launches are admittedly part of normal military exercises and training programs. But they are also major national events. Otherwise, why have all past presidents gone to Pingtung Jiu-Peng Military Base to review the exercises? Today cross-Strait relations have reverted to what they were eight years ago, during the Chen regime's “Cold Peace”. Worse still, the military went so far as to launch missiles with active warheads in the Taiwan Strait. This is of course a matter that the President and Commander in Chief ought to handle personally. President Tsai and her national security aides failed to hold a timely emergency meeting to study the situation and adopt countermeasures. Instead they chose to linger at a banquet for “Overseas Taiwanese”. Clearly, they misjudged the situation.

Heads of State, without exception, are obligated to attend to major domestic and international incidents. In March 2010, North Korea sank the Cheonan, a South Korean ship. Tensions were high in Northeast Asia. Then President Ma Ying-jeou, was attending a tea party with journalists in Palau. He immediately left and conferred with Secretary-General of the National Security System Hu Wei-chen and other officials back home, to learn more about the situation and to issue instructions. In 2013, while visiting Central and South America, the Tam Mei typhoon struck Taiwan. Ma immediately canceled his transit diplomacy through Los Angeles and returned to Taiwan. The Cheonan incident and the Tam Mei typhoons posed far less danger to national security than the launching of a guided missile in the Taiwan Strait. This is especially true now that the Tsai government has undermined cross-Strait trust and killed communication channels. The launching of the guided missile even coincided with the anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. With all of these negative factors piling up upon one other, can one really expect the other side not to misjudge the situation, and respond with military action?

Ma Ying-jeou's response was ridiculed by the green camp as an "overreaction". But a head of state must keep tabs on the big picture. Tsai Ing-wen, on the other hand, when confronted with a major national security incident, failed to send a timely message to the other side. Instead, she notified the United States first, then lingered at a banquet for “Overseas Taiwanese”. Her actions left people flabbergasted.

President Tsai was abroad at the time. Obviously she could not convene a formal National Security Council meeting. But National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu was by her side. Immediately convening an interim National Security Council meeting and issuing an emergency directive, would not have been difficult. Instead, President Tsai and her entourage dallied for four hours. Tsai's response was tardy, and her reaction was not commensurate with the seriousness of the situation. The Tsai government is now harping on domestic military discipline, assignment of blame, and conspiracy theories. It is refusing to take into account the reaction of the Mainland side, and the implications for Taiwan Strait security. The national security staff is clearly guilty of dereliction of duty.

Furthermore, even assuming the president could not break free, she could have authorized the Vice-President and the Deputy Secretary-General of the National Security Council to evaluate the situation, convene an emergency meeting, and recommend appropriate measures for presidential approval. Instead, the itinerary for Chen Chien-jen and Feng Shi-kuan that day left the nation a ship without a rudder.

President Tsai said the missile launch "simply should not have happened". What is that, except empty rhetoric? What really should not have happened was the National Security Council's inaction during a crisis, leaving no one minding the store. Military personnel abused dogs, and the public responded with outrage. But a guided missile was accidentally launched, and led to a national security crisis. Meanwhile, national leaders were literally out to lunch. That situation was one hundred times more serious than some nameless sergeant accidentally pushing the wrong button.

國安系統失靈遠比誤射事件嚴重
2016-07-06 聯合報

海軍金江艦誤射雄三飛彈事發多日，政府迄今的處理，都在究責及誤射程序問題打轉；林全更將調查箭頭指向追究洩密，恐已離題太遠。事實上，真正讓人擔憂的是，當天是「兩岸最接近戰爭的一刻」，攸關台海安危的國安系統卻呈現遲鈍及失靈狀態，這是最不該輕忽的一環。

先回顧一下蔡政府對這件史上最離譜的飛彈誤射事件之因應。七月一日上午八時十五分，金江艦誤朝台灣海峽中線發射雄三飛彈；十分鐘後，在洛杉磯的蔡英文總統及國安會秘書長吳釗燮接獲通報，卻隨即繼續參加號稱「爆桌」的僑宴。四個多小時後，蔡英文才在美國以通訊保密方式越洋召開「國安高層會議」，聽取國安會副秘書長陳俊麟的「簡報」。

此一期間，理應為蔡總統「代班人」的副總統陳建仁，正出席高鐵南港車站通車典禮；國防部長馮世寬則在博愛營區接見中華民國軍人之友社理事長李棟樑，皆為儀式性活動。至於陸委會，在兩岸熱線中斷的情況下，宣稱在當天下午「啟動各種溝通聯繫機制」，讓對岸收到相關訊息，盼對方勿錯誤解讀此一事件。至於是什麼管道，收效如何，則顧左右而言他。

令人意外的是，與此國安事件直接相關的參謀總長嚴德發，竟似被排除於處理核心之外；反而是不直接掌管國防、國安、兩岸的閣揆林全，卻忙得焦頭爛額。這顯示，新政府分工仍未上軌道，國安體制一片混亂。

發射飛彈實彈，雖是正常軍事演訓項目，卻也是一等一的國家大事；否則，為何歷任總統均要親赴屏東九鵬基地視導？今天的兩岸關係，幾已退回八年前扁政府的冰凍期，軍方竟還任意由士兵朝台海發射實彈，這當然是總統兼三軍統帥必須親自處理的國家大事。那麼，蔡總統及國安幕僚不在第一時間舉行緊急會議，研商影響與對策，卻選擇先參加僑宴，便顯得誤判形勢。

國家元首出訪遭逢國內外大事，在所難免。二○一○年三月北韓擊沉南韓天安艦，東北亞局勢緊張，當時人在帛琉訪問的前總統馬英九正與媒體茶敘，在第一時間即離席召集隨行的國安會秘書長胡為真等與國內相關單位連線，了解詳情並下達指令。二○一三年出訪中南美，適因潭美颱風來襲，決定提前結束洛杉磯過境外交行程返台。無論天安艦事件或潭美颱風，均遠不及誤射飛彈牽動台海安全之嚴重；而兩岸互信正日趨走低，溝通管道阻滯，誤射之日又適逢中共黨慶的敏感期；種種負面因素交錯，如何確保對岸不致誤判、進而衍生軍事衝突？

馬英九當年的反應，曾遭逢綠營譏為「反應過度」，然終究是國家元首對大局必要的盱衡。反觀蔡英文，面對重大國安事件，第一時間不思如何及時向對岸傳遞正確訊息，卻先行通知美方，還選擇全程參與僑宴。如此作法，實讓人錯愕。

蔡總統正出訪國外，自不可能正式召開國安會議；但既然國安會秘書長吳釗燮同行，要立即召開臨時國安高層會議，作出緊急指令，並非難事。但這次，蔡總統一行卻等到事發四小時後才舉行，不僅因應遲緩，也是輕重不分。其中原因，如果只是想到國內的軍紀、究責、陰謀等問題，卻未考慮到對岸反應、台海的安全，則國安人員恐怕太過失職。

再說，就算總統無法抽身，也可以授權留守的副總統、國安會副秘書長緊急開會研判事態走向，並規畫相應建議措施供總統定奪。但從陳建仁及馮世寬當天的行程看，當時的情景似接近「群龍無首」狀態。

蔡總統說飛彈誤射「根本不該發生」，這其實是句空話；真正不該發生的是，國安應變機制竟在關鍵時刻失靈而變成空窗。軍人虐狗，民眾可以沸沸揚揚聲討；但誤射飛彈是重大國安問題，領導階層一失神，可能釀成的大禍，要比中士胡亂按鈕嚴重百倍。