United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 5, 2016
Executive Summary: The US has been pressuring Taipei, demanding that we state our position on the nine-dashed line more clearly. It hopes our side will relinquish its own claim voluntarily. If President Cai cozies up to the US, the Mainland is sure to react negatively. Cross-Strait relations will deteriorate. Our side would effectively have relinquished its territorial sovereignty. The new government must consider its response carefully.
Full Text Below:
The Hague Permanent Court of Arbitration will “rule” on the Philippines' South China Sea arbitration suit on the 12th. This is the most closely watched arbitration case of the decade. It impacts the relationship between China and Southeast Asia. It also impacts Sino-US and cross-Strait relations. The Tsai government must weigh its options and respond with care.
Mainland China's position has been to reject arbitration, in order to avoid being boxed in by any unfavorable finding. Two years ago, the CCP issued a "Position Paper on South China Sea Arbitration Jurisdiction". The paper criticized Philippine claims pertaining to sovereignty and lines of demarcation. It refused to recognize the Hague Tribunal's claim of jurisdiction. Beijing knows that the outcome of the arbitration will affect the international atmosphere and alienate ASEAN. Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Brunei, Cambodia, and Laos this year. The three countries expressed support for the Mainland's position. This provoked dissatisfaction among other ASEAN countries. During a special meeting last month with ASEAN foreign ministers, the Mainland objected to interference from Japan, the US, and other countries outside the South China Sea region. A number of ASEAN countries rejected the Mainland's objection, and the meeting adjourned without any agreement. Clearly the arbitration case has divided ASEAN.
The South China Sea issue is not merely an issue that concerns ASEAN and the Mainland. It also concerns the Mainland's rise in the world and US hegemony. The Mainland has repeatedly stressed that the US is not a disputant in the South China Sea issue. It has blasted US statements about the South China Sea, and blocked or warned off US warships.
Newly elected Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has a more flexible attitude than his predecessor Aquino. He hopes to resolve the territorial dispute with the Mainland in a reasonable fashion. He says that even if the Philippines wins the arbitration, it will not go to war with the Mainland over Huangyan Island. Beijing has high expectations regarding Duterte, and hopes he will be willing to consult with Beijing. As a result, it has made a number of moves. It has offered the inducement of a high-speed rail project in the Philippines. Xi Jingping called to congratulate Duterte during his inauguration. He declared that "the two nations are neighbors forever". He allowed Filipino fishing boats to transit disputed waters. That said, Duterte's room for compromise remains limited. The United States is the chief instigator behind demands for arbitration. If compromises on sovereignty in the South China Sea lead to allegations of treason, Duterte will dare not act rashly.
The ROC government has taken a “viewing tigers fight each other on a neighboring mountain” posture regarding the South China Sea dispute. The initital complaint filed by the Philippines did not mention Taiping Island. Later on, in a written supplement, the Philippines alleged that Taiping Island, the largest island in the South China Sea is merely a reef. It made the same allegations about the second and third largest islands, which are also owned by the ROC. The Philippines seeks to invalidate the 200 nautical mile economic zone provision in the International Convention on the Law of the Sea, for all islands in the South China Sea. Doing so would enable the Philippines to claim waters starting from the Philippines coast. Therefore like it or not, the ROC is involved in the territorial waters dispute. That is why President Ma visited Taiping Island – to ensure that the international tribunal could not ignore the legitimate rights and interests of the ROC.
Beijing expects the result of international arbitration to be unfavorable to China. In recent months it has been clarifying its position through international law experts. Its Foreign Ministry has prepared a white paper to be distributed as soon as the results of the arbitration are announced. As for the ROC position, Tsai government aides are said to be working on it, and the government's policy has yet to be finalized. If so, the Tsai government must pay attention to several points.
First, Taipei has never at any time participated in the arbitration. So should Taipei accept the verdict? Some think we should wait for the results. If Taiping Island is classified as an island rather than a reef, they say we should accept it. If not, we should protest the result and reject it. Unfortunately one cannot selectively accept or reject the findings of arbitration. Accepting a favorable ruling on Taiping Island means accepting a unilateral decision by the Hague. It means that in the event of later disputes, we cannot claim we were not consulted beforehand.
Secondly, if Taiping Island is ruled to be the only island in the South China Sea, what are the repercussions? Taiping Island's special status would then make it the brass ring that everyone is attempting to snatch. Our military has no concrete plan to defend the island. The Coast Guard's firepower is inadequate. If foreign vessels provoke incidents, will we be able to stop them?
Finally, how should the ROC government respond to the Hague tribunal's ruling on the Mainland's "nine-dashed line"? The Ma government did its utmost to avoid mention of the PRC's nine-dashed line or the ROC's eleven-dashed line. Instead, it made a four part declaration: “Sovereignty belong to us. Disputes should be shelved. Peace is mutually beneficial. Resources should be Jointly developed”. Continuity of government remains a concern. Should President Tsai continue President Ma's policy? Can she offer something even better?
The US has been pressuring Taipei, demanding that we state our position on the nine-dashed line more clearly. It hopes our side will relinquish its own claim voluntarily. If President Cai cozies up to the US, the Mainland is sure to react negatively. Cross-Strait relations will deteriorate. Our side would effectively have relinquished its territorial sovereignty. The new government must consider its response carefully.
蔡政府須審慎因應南海仲裁案
2016-07-05 聯合報
海牙仲裁法院十二日將就菲律賓提請的「南海仲裁案」作出裁決。這是近十年來最受矚目的仲裁案，不僅衝擊中國大陸與東南亞各國關係，更將牽動中美及兩岸關係；蔡英文政府應妥為權衡，謹慎因應。
中國大陸的立場是拒絕仲裁，避免被不利的結果所框限。中共兩年前發布《關於南海仲裁案管轄權問題的立場文件》，批評菲律賓的訴求涉及主權和劃界問題，基本上先否定海牙法庭的管轄權。北京深知仲裁結果會影響國際氛圍，因此外交上要先離間東協，外長王毅今年訪問了汶萊、柬埔寨和寮國；三國分別表示支持中國的立場，從而引發東協其他國家不滿。上月與東協外長的特別會議上，大陸也提出不允許日美等區域外國家干涉南海爭端的草案，遭若干東協國家拒絕，會議不歡而散。這顯示，仲裁案已分化了東協。
南海問題其實不僅是東協與大陸的問題，也是崛起的中國與美國霸權的碰撞。中方一再強調，美國非南海爭議的聲索國，嚴斥美國對南海的發言，並以實際行動攔阻或警告美軍船艦的通行。
菲律賓新總統杜特蒂態度較前任的艾奎諾總統有彈性，希望與中國理智解決領土爭端，並表示縱贏得仲裁，菲律賓也不會因黃岩島向大陸開戰。北京對杜特蒂頗有期待，希望爭取他與北京協商，於是動作頻頻，除提出協建高鐵作為利誘，習近平致電慶賀杜特蒂就職時，還稱「兩國永遠是鄰居」，並不再阻攔航經爭議海域的菲籍漁船。然而，杜特蒂能妥協的空間有限，除了美國在仲裁案背後扮演主導角色，若在南海主權上讓步可能招致「叛國」的指控，使他不敢輕舉妄動。
對於南海爭議，我國原抱著「隔山觀虎鬥」的心態，因為菲律賓最初提交的訴狀並未涉及太平島，但在後來的書面補充中，菲國卻把南海最大島嶼──我國的太平島，連同該國占據的第二、第三大島都列為「岩礁」。其目的，是希望讓所有南海島嶼都無法依據《國際海洋法公約》宣告兩百浬經濟海域，從而所有合法起算線都要從菲國沿岸起算。我國因此被捲入領海爭議，所以馬總統才要親訪太平島，大動作提醒國際仲裁庭不能忽略台灣的正當權益。
北京預期國際仲裁對己不利，近月來已連續透過相關國際法團體與學者說明其立場，其外交部的政策白皮書也備妥，俟仲裁結果一出，將予批駁。至於我國的立場，據稱仍在幕僚作業階段，尚未進入政策定案。我們認為，蔡政府必須注意幾點：
首先，台灣自始即未參與仲裁，我方要不要接受裁決結果？有人認為要視結果而定，若認定太平島是島非礁，可表示肯定；若對我不利，則抗議不接受。問題是，仲裁判決不能選擇性接受，一旦接受對我方有利的「太平是島」，即等於接受仲裁法庭的所有片面裁決，以後再有爭議，我國便也無法抗議台灣事先未獲徵詢了。
其次，若僅太平島被認定為南海唯一島嶼，其後續影響為何？屆時，太平島的特殊地位，將成為各方搶奪的金碗；我軍方若沒有固守計畫，以海巡署的微薄火力，未必守得住。若成天有外籍船艦在該島挑釁巡弋，我們有能力阻止嗎？
最後，海牙仲裁庭對大陸「九段線」歷史海域的裁決，我國要如何看待？過去馬政府盡量避免提及九段線或我方主張的十一段線，僅提南海爭議四項主張：「主權在我，擱置爭議，和平互惠，共同開發」；基於施政的連續性，蔡總統是否繼承馬總統的政策，或能提出更高明的主張？
美國一直向台灣施壓，要求對九段線問題說清楚，最好我方能主動放棄。蔡總統若傾向美國的立場，勢將引發大陸的強烈不滿，兩岸關係將益形惡化，且亦形同我國自棄國權。這是新政府在考慮回應態度時，最最必須謹慎的部分。
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