Tsai's Refusal to Affirm the 1992 Consensus Spells Double Trouble for Taiwan

Tsai's Refusal to Affirm the 1992 Consensus Spells Double Trouble for Taiwan 
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
July 25, 2016 

Executive Summary: Tsai Ing-wen told the Washington Post that she rejected the Mainland's deadline for affirming the 1992 Consensus. Taiwan now faces a double dilemma. Perhaps Tsai would like to tell the people of Taiwan when they can expect a breakthough? Whether Tsai responds to the 1992 Consensus is secondary. But the president is the nation's leader. Tsai Ing-wen has turned the rudder. She cannot throw up her hands and feign a "The owner isn't here” attitude. Taiwan is adrift. It is being battered by wave after wave. It is an ghost ship that may be overturned any moment.

Full Text Below:

President Tsai spoke to foreign reporters for the first time since assuming office. When the Washington Post asked her about the 1992 Consensus, Tsai said,  "Setting a deadline and demanding that the Taiwanese [sic] government defy the wishes of the people and accept the other side's conditions? That is highly unlikely". Cross-Strait relations are already troubled. Her comments have added fuel to the fire.

The Mainland-based Global Times interviewed academics. The People's Daily published an opinion piece, with attribution. The consensus is that Tsai, for all intents and purposes, has repudiated the 1992 Consensus. Some news channels on Taiwan reached the same conclusion. In response to the turmoil, the presidential office hastily undertook damage control. They accused the media of “reading too much into her statement”. Did Tsai mean to say that "when the bell rang, she would not hand in her test paper”? Perhaps not. But she has for the time being refused to hand in her test paper. That much is fact. More importantly, cross-Strait exchanges made possible by the 1992 Consensus have gradually been hollowed out, and will continue to be hollowed out. The foundation on which cross-Strait exchanges are conducted may eventually collapse. That too is fact. That is the major issue that warrants concern.

The fear that cross-Strait exchanges may end, is not not baseless paranoia. Consider Taiwan's international maneuvering room. The cross-Strait deadlock over the 1992 Consensus has presented the DPP with a double dilemma. Taiwan is being dragged, step by step, down a blind alley. The chief pressure naturally, is coming from the Mainland. The 1992 Consensus means “one China, different interpretations”. In the past Beijing stressed one China. Taipei stressed different interpretations. But Beijing tolerated this and remained silent.

Tsai however, has refused to affirm the 1992 Consensus. The Mainland has responded by highlighting “one China" while downplaying “different interpretations”. This May, during the World Health Assembly (WHA), Tsai was forced to swallow UN Resolution 2758. During the 1970s we referred to this as “the resolution that shut us out and classified us as an outlaw”. This resolution is the harshest possible manifestation of the "one China" principle. The resolution “expelled the Republic of China government from all illegally held positions in United Nations organizations”. It did more than declare that the PRC was the sole legitimate government of all China. It expelled the ROC from the UN.

The DPP refuses to accept the highly conciliatory 1992 Consensus. Yet it prostrates itself before the humiliating UN Resolution 2758. It even failed to do what the Ma administration did – emphasize Taiwan's need for participation. DPP representative Lin Chou-yan made no mention whatsoever of Taiwan, adding to the humiliation.

Worse still, UN Resolution 2758 is not going to remain an individual case that pertains only to the WHA. It will be applied universally, across the board. Tsai Ing-wen has been forced to swallow UN Resolution 2758 on the WHA. She will also be forced to swallow the upcoming September 27 ICAO General Assembly, which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reports is currently under preliminary planning. Unless Taiwan chooses not to participate, Tsai Ing-wen will yet again be forced to swallow UN Resolution 2758.

The pressure from the Mainland is grim. But Tsai rejected the 1992 Consensus. Therefore this pressure came as no surprise. On the other hand, the pressure from the UN is far more embarrassing for the DPP, since it amounts to betrayal by supposed “allies”. In order to please the United States and Japan, the DPP refused to defend ROC maritime sovereignty. It shrank from asserting ROC fishing rights. It referred to Cong Zhi Niao Reef as Cong Zhi Niao, parroting Japan in denying that it was merely a reef. The DPP was touching in its sincerity. What did it receive in return? It received the South China Sea “ruling”, with its preposterous reclassification of Taiping Island as a “reef”. Embarrassments such as these reflect the ugly reality of the “international community”, as well as the inevitable consequences of Tsai Ing-wen's refusal to maintain friendly relations with the Mainland.

When Ma Ying-jeou came to power, he actively sought friendly relations with the Mainland. In terms of US strategic interests, Taiwan and the Mainland becoming close may have elicited concern in Washington. But diplomatic face saving meant that the US nevertheless had to treat Taiwan with kid gloves. Now however, the United States no longer cares about how it treats Tsai Ing-wen. Repudiation of the 1992 Consensus makes it impossible for Tsai Ing-wen to befriend the Mainland. The South China Sea “ruling” has humiliated Tsai Ing-wen, who will now be regarded as the "little sister".

The American Institute in Taiwan is utterly indifferent to Taiwan's feelings about the South China Sea “ruling”. It leaped forward and claimed that the South China Sea “ruling” is legally binding. Clearly the United States cares not one whit about the Tsai regime's “face”.

Tsai Ing-wen told the Washington Post that she rejected the Mainland's deadline for affirming the 1992 Consensus. Taiwan now faces a double dilemma. Perhaps Tsai would like to tell the people of Taiwan when they can expect a breakthough? Whether Tsai responds to the 1992 Consensus is secondary. But the president is the nation's leader. Tsai Ing-wen has turned the rudder. She cannot throw up her hands and feign a "The owner isn't here” attitude. Taiwan is adrift. It is being battered by wave after wave. It is an ghost ship that may be overturned any moment.

Reaffirm the 1992 Consensus. Refit the ship of state with its old rudder. Or fit it with a new rudder. Demonstrate responsible leadership. Tsai Ing-wen has no excuse for shirking responsibility.

拒絕答卷 台灣陷入雙重壓縮困局
2016/7/25 中國時報

蔡英文總統首次接受國際媒體採訪，對於《華盛頓郵報》關於「九二共識期限」的提問，蔡英文回答：「設定期限，要求台灣政府違反民意去承受一些對方的條件，其實可能性是不大的」。在兩岸關係伏流洶洶的此時，這段談話又為兩岸添了幾許滔滔波浪。

大陸《環球時報》刊出學者訪談，《人民日報》也發表了署名評論，大體都認為是實質拒絕「九二共識」，台灣也有媒體做類似的解讀。鑒於風波擴大，總統府立刻幫蔡英文「收斂」，認為是過度解讀。中性而言，「鈴響交卷，拒絕九二」或許並非蔡英文談話原意，但「暫不交卷」卻是事實。更重要的是，九二共識這個逐漸被掏空的兩岸交流地基，將繼續被掏空，矗立其上的兩岸交流大樓可能逐漸崩塌，也是事實。這一點，才是真正該關心的大事。

擔心兩岸交流大樓可能崩塌，並非杞人之憂。以台灣的國際空間為例，由於兩岸在九二共識上的僵局，民進黨已陷入雙重壓縮的困局，正一步一步把台灣拖進死巷。第一重壓縮，自是來自大陸方面。九二共識的核心意涵是「一中各表」，過去雖然大陸偏向強調一中，我方偏向強調各表，但對這種「各有偏向的表述」，陸方基本上採取默許。

當蔡英文遲不承認九二共識，大陸順勢回到「一中」，更強勢壓縮「各表」，甚至在今年5月台灣出席世界衛生大會（WHA），逼蔡英文吞下曾在1970年代被我方稱為「排我納匪案」的《聯合國2758號決議文》，該決議是最強烈的「一中」表述，其決議載明「從它（蔣介石代表的中華民國政府）在聯合國組織及其所屬一切機構中所非法占據的席位上驅逐出去。」不僅是「宣示獨占」式的一中表述，更是「行動驅逐」式的一中表述。

民進黨不接受最懷柔的「九二共識」，卻在最強悍、甚至已達於屈辱的2758號決議上低頭，同時未依馬政府代表在演講時必提台灣的參與慣例，民進黨派出的代表林奏延還避談台灣，加碼了屈辱。

更糟糕的是，2758號決議不會是中共在WHA設定的「個案框架」，而將是「通案準則」，蔡英文將不只在WHA上吞下2758號決議，例如今年9月27日即將舉行的國際民航組織（ICAO）大會，外交部表示已在進行沙盤推演。但除非台灣選擇不參加，幾可確定，蔡英文必須再次在2758號決議下忍氣吞聲。

第一重壓縮雖然嚴峻，但當蔡英文拒絕接受九二共識的同時，這方面的壓縮尚是「可預見的壓縮」。然而，第二重壓縮，卻是讓民進黨更為難堪的壓縮，即來自盟友的背叛。民進黨為了討好美國與日本，不肯伸張海洋主權、怯於伸張漁權，把「沖之鳥礁」，改稱為「沖之鳥」，幾近附和日本，把沖之鳥礁「去礁化」。種種「真心」，卻在南海仲裁案換來太平島被「去島化」的「絕情」。這樣的難堪反映的是國際社會的現實，甚至正是蔡英文無能維繫兩岸友好關係的必然結果。

馬英九執政時，積極發展與大陸友善交流，從美國的戰略利益言，雖不免顧慮台灣和大陸走太近，但也因為這一層「顧慮」，使得美國反而在外交面上對台灣必須尊重在意。但現在，美國對蔡英文卻「完全沒有顧忌」。拒認九二共識的蔡英文已不可能與大陸交好，在南海仲裁案讓蔡英文難堪，也將被視為「小老弟」該隱忍的委曲。

這一點可以從美國在台協會完全不顧慮台灣感受，在南海仲裁案出爐後的第一時間，即跳出來表態強調南海仲裁具有法律約束力，可以看出連最後一點面子，美方都沒有幫蔡政府保留。

蔡英文在《華盛頓郵報》專訪時表示，不接受陸方對九二共識設定的答卷期限，蔡英文可能更該想想，民進黨對台灣面臨的雙重壓縮困境，能不能告訴台灣人民一個破困突圍的期限？答不答九二共識尚在其次，但身為總統，身為國家的領航人，蔡英文不能在拆了九二共識這個舵盤後，以一種「主人不在家」的心態，兩手一攤，任由台灣在洶湧浪濤的夾擊下，成為隨波漂流、隨時可能傾覆的無主鬼船。

要不就把九二共識重新裝回舵盤，要不就負責任地拿出新舵盤領導台灣，這是蔡英文無可推諉的責任。