Do Not Exaggerate Significance of Soong Xi Greeting

Do Not Exaggerate Significance of Soong Xi Greeting
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
November 18, 2016

Executive Summary: James Soong and Mainland Chinese leader Xi Jinping talked for more than 10 minutes in private at the APEC informal leaders meeting. Until then, most people assumed that since the Tsai government refused to recognize the 1992 Consensus, a Soong Xi meeting would be out of the question. Some assumed that Soong would not even be admitted into into the APEC venue in Peru. The Mainland authorities sent the same message to Mainland government agencies, and to most Taiwan experts. The meeting was unexpected, and warrants review and evaluation.

Full Text Below:

James Soong and Mainland Chinese leader Xi Jinping talked for more than 10 minutes in private at the APEC informal leaders meeting. Until then, most people assumed that since the Tsai government refused to recognize the 1992 Consensus, a Soong Xi meeting would be out of the question. Some assumed that Soong would not even be admitted into into the APEC venue in Peru. The Mainland authorities sent the same message to Mainland government agencies, and to most Taiwan experts. The meeting was unexpected, and warrants review and evaluation.

First of all, one must not read too much into this brief “meet and greet”. As Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang noted, the Xi Soong meeting was merely a "natural and brief greeting" in the venue lounge area. Some on Taiwan however, are determined to exaggerate the significance of the meeting. Some say "See! Cross-Strait relations are not as bad as previously imagined". Others say “This is an opportunity to break the ice between the DPP and CCP". But they kidding both themselves and others. They are merely pacifying their own constituencies.

Prior to his departure, on the 150th anniversary of the birth of Dr. Sun Yat-sen, James Soong issued a declaration. He said that the People First Party's position on the definition of the nation and cross-Strait relations remained unchanged. In other words, it advocated one China and opposed Taiwan independence. Under the “roof of one China”, it advocated cross-Strait equality and mutual understanding, increased exchanges, the realization of the "two sides are one family" premise, and the promotion of cross-Strait peace. James Soong's position is fully consistent with the long held position of the Mainland. Any party, group, or individual on Taiwan should accept the 1992 Consensus and agree that both the Mainland and Taiwan belong to one China.

The Mainland has taken measures to prevent the Tsai government from declaring to the outside world that even if the 1992 Consensus is not recognized, cross-Strait official interaction can continue. According to the official statement made by the Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman, the meeting was a simple “meet and greet” between General Secretary Xi Jinping and James Soong. It was an interaction between a party and an individual. The Mainland will not resume official cross-Strait contacts as long as the Tsai government refuses to recognize the 1992 Consensus.

Obviously the Mainland is using a two-pronged strategy to win hearts and minds while remaining resolutely firm on the 1992 Consensus. This provides an important reference point by which to understand cross-Strait relations.

For the Tsai government, the stalemate between the two sides over administrative level issues can be overcome. President Tsai has already declared that she will deal with cross-Strait affairs in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of China and the Regulations Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the People of the Mainland China Area. The Mainland, meanwhile, allows political parties on Taiwan to discuss economic and trade issues and participation in international events. When James Soong met with Xi Jinping, he asked the Mainland to continue its cross-Strait economic and trade policies, and continue to look after small and medium enterprises from Taiwan.

This means that even if James Soong is President Tsai's representative, the Mainland is willing to listen to his views, as long as he personally agrees that both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China. In other words, President Tsai can use James Soong as a representative in future cross-Strait consultations. Taiwan can also use other channels of communication outside the KMT to resolve a number of administrative level issues. Now that cross-Strait official interaction is frozen, this is a positive message.

But the cross-Strait political impasse has yet to be resolved. Xi Jinping sent a clear political signal to Taiwan this year. The Mainland is determined to oppose any form of Taiwan independence. The only possible solution to the cross-Strait stalemate is the recognition of the 1992 Consensus, and the correct handling of cross-Strait relations. This means that if President Tsai truly seeks to resume official cross-Strait exchanges, especially the normalization of cross-Strait relations, she must correctly define the nature of cross-Strait relations. She must acknowledge that the two sides belong to one China, and are not separate nations. If President Tsai persists in being vague on this issue, she should harbor no illusions. Cross-Strait relations will not improve. The Soong Xi meeting was merely a personal and administrative level matter, with no spillover effects. There will be no official exchanges, only private exchanges. DPP government hopes of maintaining the status quo can maintain only an incomplete status quo.

Since President Xi took office, he has set forth a series of proposals on cross-Strait relations and the rebirth of the Chinese nation. He hopes that the two sides can join hands in revitalizing China. He also discussed the meeting with Hong Xiu-chu and Sun Yat-sen's 150th Anniversary. Guided by this concept, the Mainland has never rejected cross-Strait civil interaction. In fact it has been actively promoting such interaction. Mainland officials have also taken measures to improve living and working conditions for people from Taiwan living on the Mainland. These are clear evidence of Mainland goodwill toward Taiwan, and constitute opportunities for the people of Taiwan. President Tsai must realize this. This shows that while the Mainland is firm in its stance, it also has seeks to improve cross-Strait relations and influence President Tsai Ying-wen.

President Tsai must reconsider the impact cross-Strait relations and peace will have on Taiwan. She must cease cozying up to the US while distancing Taiwan from the Mainland. Such fantasies are impractical delusions. She must addresss the Mainland's core concerns and resolve the political deadlock between the two sides of the Strait. Only then the cross-Strait freeze be resolved.

Short of this, sitting and doing nothing under today's "incomplete status quo" will only result in Taiwan becoming a boiled frog.

不可過度解讀宋習寒暄的意義
2016/11/22 中國時報

宋楚瑜與大陸領導人習近平在APEC非正式領袖會議場合，非公開會晤超過10分鐘時間。在此之前，多數人認為蔡政府不承認九二共識，宋習會很難成局，甚至有人認為宋進不了秘魯APEC會場，大陸對台工作部門及多數涉台學者也傳遞了同樣的訊息，事實發展卻出乎多數人意料，其意涵值得各界審視評估。

首先，不必過度解釋場外的簡短寒暄，就像國台辦發言人馬曉光的簡短說明，習、宋只是在會場休息室進行了「自然簡短的寒暄」。台灣方面卻有人擴大解讀，無論認為「兩岸關係沒有想像的糟糕」，或「民共之間出現破冰的契機」，其實都是自欺欺人之論，只能滿足內部的需要。

宋楚瑜在出發之前，選擇在孫中山先生誕辰150周年之際，公開聲明親民黨對國家定位和兩岸關係的立場不變，也就是兩岸一中、反對台獨，在「一中屋頂」概念下，尊重兩岸對等分治的政治現實，相互體諒、強化交流，實現「兩岸一家親」的信念，推動兩岸和平發展的路線。宋楚瑜這一表態完全符合大陸所一直強調的立場，台灣任何黨派、團體、個人，只要承認九二共識，認同大陸和台灣同屬一個中國，大陸都願意同其交往。

但大陸同時也採取了預防措施，以避免蔡政府藉機向外界宣告即便不承認九二共識，兩岸官方互動也可以維繫的印象。根據國台辦發言人的正式說法，此次會晤被大陸定性為習近平總書記與宋楚瑜的簡單寒暄，突出黨對個人的互動關係，顯示在蔡政府拒不承認九二共識背景下，大陸不會恢復兩岸官方接觸。

顯而易見，大陸運用兩手策略，一方面盡可能爭取台灣民心，另一方面堅定原則立場不動搖，這也為我們理解當下兩岸關係走向提供了重要參考。

對蔡政府而言，目前兩岸的僵局在事務性問題的層級上還是有化解的可能。一方面，蔡總統已經宣示會按照《中華民國憲法》和《兩岸人民關係條例》來處理兩岸事務，另一方面大陸也不排斥台灣各黨派人士與大陸協商處理經貿領域和國際參與的議題。此番宋楚瑜在與習近平會面之際，也提出要求大陸重申兩岸經貿往來政策持續，以及持續照顧台灣中小企業。

這意味著宋楚瑜即便作為蔡總統的代表，但只要他個人表示認同兩岸同屬一個中國，大陸也願意傾聽他的意見，換句話說，未來兩岸事務性問題需要協商處理時，蔡總統也可以藉助宋楚瑜的個人關係來加以處理，台灣也可在國民黨外多了其他溝通管道，兩岸之間面臨的諸多事務性問題也有了化解的可能，這在兩岸官方互動陷入僵局之際，不啻為一項正面訊息。

但兩岸政治僵局仍未出現解決的曙光。習近平今年已經先後通過洪習會和紀念孫中山先生誕辰150周年大會的講話，向台灣發出明確的政治訊號，即大陸有堅定的決心反對任何形式的台獨，兩岸僵局化解的唯一可能在於承認九二共識，以及正確處理兩岸關係的定位。這就意味著，蔡總統若想要真正實現兩岸官方互動的重啟，特別是實現兩岸關係的正常化，恐怕還是需要正面處理兩岸關係的基本性質問題，也就是兩岸同屬一個中國、兩岸非國與國關係。若是蔡總統繼續在此問題上採取模糊態度，自然不必有任何幻想兩岸關係會得到根本性的改善。宋習會的正面意義僅止於個人關係和事務層級，不會再有其他的外溢效應。沒有官方交往，只有民間交流，對希望維持現狀的民進黨政府只是一種「不完整現狀」的維持。

習近平自上任以來接連提出「兩岸一家親」和中華民族偉大復興理念，希望兩岸共同攜手振興中華，在與洪秀柱會面及孫中山150周年紀念大會上又有了進一步論述。在這一理念指導下，大陸從來都不排斥，或者說一直都在積極推動兩岸民間互動，大陸官方也在努力採取措施，為台灣民眾在大陸的生活和工作創造更加便利的條件。這些無疑都是大陸對台灣釋放的善意，也是台灣人民在兩岸關係中的機遇所在。宋習會更進一步表明大陸改善兩岸關係的誠意以及處理兩岸互動的高度靈活性，對此蔡總統應有清楚的認知。這清楚表明，大陸在立場堅定之餘，也對改善兩岸關係有高度期待，如何抉擇存乎蔡英文總統的一念之間。

蔡總統除非重新思考兩岸關係和平發展對台灣的重要作用，放下「親美疏中」不切實際的戰略幻想，在此基礎上，以正面態度回應大陸的核心關切，兩岸政治僵局才有化解的可能。

不此之圖，坐視「不完整的現狀」持續下去，對台灣而言就是「溫水煮青蛙」的結局。