United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 30, 2016
Executive Summary: The Economist Special Edition featured a Tarot card on the cover. It predicted global trends for 2017. It invoked "Planet Trump" as a metaphor for the setback he poses for globalism. The process of regional integration is confusing, disorderly, and intense. Yet Taiwan remains ignorant of the cards it holds. Tsai Ying-wen must wake up and clear her head, lest she follow in Chen Shui-bian's footsteps. She must cast off her illusions and boldly proclaim which path she intends to take. Otherwise, she will become a puppet of deep green pressure groups. The window of opportunity is closing rapidly. She had better complete her test paper, lest her Asian tiger be reduced to a sick cat.
Full Text Below:
Donald Trump wants the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). That is no longer in doubt. Taiwan is stunned. The situation is grim. If the Tsai Ing-wen government sweeps the problem under the rug and does nothing, Tsai's popularity will hit rock bottom. If she attempts to push through reforms after she has lost popular support, it will be too late.
Trump's election victory marks a dramatic reversal in global political tides. Since the end of World War II, the US has dominated global affairs. This domination is now on “Pause”. Meanwhile, Mainland China's "Chinese Dream" has begun to see the light of day. The Mainland is using a variety of means to shape the world to its liking. Trump's New Isolationism and Xi Jinping's Chinese Dream clearly indicate who is pulling back and who is moving forward.
Obama's withdrawal from the Middle East was a precursor of this strategic withdrawal. Hillary Clinton authored Obama's "Asian Rebalancing" strategy to suppress China's rise. But based on its behavior in the South China Sea, the United States' bark is worse than its bite. The TPP, its most important containment tactic, is already unsustainable.
Furthermore, during the same period, Mainland China set forth its One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. It successfully promoted its Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) project. Even Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and other US allies have joined. In the South China Sea, it has consolidated its strategic position through island building. This year, for the very first time, it hosted the G20 Summit, the most important platform for global governance.
The world has arrived at a major watershed. The Chinese Dream and the New Isolationism now stand side by side. A new bipolar world is emerging. Yet Tsai's policy remains rigidly anchored in the old world. Tsai sees only Hillary Clinton, who appears to retain the luster of global hegemony. She does not see that the colors of the US Empire have already begun to fade.
Tsai Ing-wen failed to see the signs. She bet everything on the United States. Needless to say, Trump's opposition to the TPP has impacted Taiwan.
The TPP is ostensibly an “economic agreement”. But Hillary Clinton's economic adviser John W. Holmes described it as the "Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty", as a coalition designed to contain China. Alas, the TPP has collapsed even before it could take shape. Taiwan has consequently become an economic and strategic orphan.
Following the collapse of the TPP, the global focus shifted to the Regional Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP) initiatives, both of which are dominated by Mainland China. Taiwan probably will be denied entry. Attempts to sign bilateral agreements will probably be met with frustration. Yet according to the October issue of The Economist, Tsai Ying-wen has affected a carefree manner and declared her intent to promote bilateral and multilateral economic and trade agreements. She even boasted that she would restore Taiwan to her former status as one fo the four Asian tigers.
There are two possible explanations for Tsai's attitude. First, The Tsai government is blind. It does not see that Taiwan is already in its death throes. Second, Tsai Ing-wen knows that Taiwan's condition is critical, but she remains a hostage to ideology. She wants to procrastinate, and whistle in the dark. If the Tsai government is blind, will the fate of the tourism industry and the dissolution of TransAsia Airways shock the Tsai government into awareness? If Tsai already understands the situation, then Taiwan has become a sacrificial pawn to the TPP. Must we tighten our belts, and continue to serve as the United States' starving sentinel in Asia?
Tsai Ying-wen has a responsibility to make the right decisions in the face of cold reality. The new global paradigm shows that Taiwan cannot renounce bilateral agreements. But more importantly, Taiwan must take part in RCEP and FTAAP regional integration. Such an about face is not that difficult. Tsai need only follow through on her inaugural address. She need only reaffirm that she is abiding by the Constitution, and that cross-Strait relations are not relations between different states.
Beijing's recent actions are worth noting. Xi Jinping met with Hung Hsiu-chu in Beijing early this month. In mid-May he embarrassed Ma Ying-jeou in Malaysia, when he omitted “different interpretations” from the 1992 Consensus", leaving only "one China". By contrast, he did not shut James Soong out of APEC in Peru. Before James Soong left for Lima, he declared that "both sides of the Strait belong to one China” and reiterated his “opposition to Taiwan independence". Xi praised Hung, blocked Ma, and met Soong. Beijing is probably waiting for Tsai Ing-wen to complete the unanswered questions on her test paper.
The Economist Special Edition featured a Tarot card on the cover. It predicted global trends for 2017. It invoked "Planet Trump" as a metaphor for the setback he poses for globalism. The process of regional integration is confusing, disorderly, and intense. Yet Taiwan remains ignorant of the cards it holds. Tsai Ying-wen must wake up and clear her head, lest she follow in Chen Shui-bian's footsteps. She must cast off her illusions and boldly proclaim which path she intends to take. Otherwise, she will become a puppet of deep green pressure groups. The window of opportunity is closing rapidly. She had better complete her test paper, lest her Asian tiger be reduced to a sick cat.
做了棄卒，還要當饑餓哨兵？
2016-11-30 聯合報
川普要退出「跨太平洋夥伴協定（ＴＰＰ）」，已無懸念，台灣頓失所依。形勢嚴峻，蔡英文的政府若僅故作鎮靜，仍毫無作為，她的聲望恐將一路探底，而當她失去民心，再作任何變革，亦都將藥石罔效。
川普當選是世界浪潮反轉的戲劇性一幕，美國從二戰末期開始主導世局的全球主義，在這一刻突然劃上休止符；而中國大陸卻欲迎向其「中國夢」黎明前的微光，用不同的倡議，嘗試塑造這個世界。川普的新孤立主義，與習近平的「中國夢」，鮮明地呈現了彼消此長的情狀。
美國從歐巴馬中東撤軍就預示了這個戰略收縮的趨勢。希拉蕊．柯林頓雖替歐巴馬制定了「亞洲再平衡」戰略，以遏制中國崛起，但從南海較量中可看出，美國已是色厲內荏，ＴＰＰ就是其遏制手段的主角，如今卻難以為繼。
況且，同一期間，中國大陸提出一帶一路倡議，成功推動亞投行，連英法德義等美國盟友都集體加入，南海造島穩步形成戰略固守；今年更首次舉辦全球治理最重要的平台Ｇ20峰會。
世界正走上一個重大的分水嶺，當「中國夢」與「新孤立主義」並存，一個新的兩極體系的世界將逐步成形；但蔡英文的政策卻還僵固地留守在舊世界裡，只注目於柯林頓身上儼然還在閃爍的世界霸權餘暉，卻看不見美利堅帝國已經嚴重褪色。
當蔡英文誤讀了趨勢又單邊押寶美國，當然就造成了川普反ＴＰＰ主張一夕成真對台灣的衝擊效應。這個曾被柯林頓經濟顧問霍爾邁茨形容為「亞洲版北大西洋公約」的經濟協定，其實是一個包圍與遏制中國的聯盟，當它未成形即告瓦解，台灣頃刻成了經濟與戰略上的國際孤兒。
ＴＰＰ瓦解後，全球目光轉向「區域全面經濟夥伴協定（ＲＣＥＰ）」以及倡議中的「亞太自由貿易區（ＦＴＡＡＰ）」，兩者都由中國大陸主導，台灣恐皆不得其門而入；至若洽簽雙邊協定之路，也恐更加坎坷。蔡英文竟猶一派輕鬆狀，宣稱要推動雙邊與多邊經貿協定，甚至早在十月交給英國《經濟學人》有關明年趨勢的專文裡，夸言要把台灣再變為猛虎。
這等情境可有兩解：其一，蔡政府已如盲瞽，看不見台灣面臨危殆之境；其二，蔡英文雖知台灣已體弱病虛，卻被意識形態挾制，觀望瞻顧，但求拖延，走在暗夜裡，只好吹哨壯膽。若是前者，從觀光慘業到興航解散所揭露的經濟真相，能否搖醒昏睡的蔡政府？若是後者，則試問，難道台灣成了ＴＰＰ的棄卒後，還要勒緊褲帶，無怨無悔地繼續在亞洲充當美國的饑餓哨兵？
作為執政者，蔡英文的職責是面對冷酷的現實作出正確的決策。全球的新格局已經揭示，台灣不能放棄雙邊協定，但更須全力尋求加入ＲＣＥＰ與ＦＴＡＡＰ的區域整合。這個轉身對蔡英文而言，其實並不真的那麼困難，只要在她就職演說基礎上往前一步，表明依據憲法，兩岸並非兩國關係即可。
北京近期幾個動作值得注意。習近平月初在北京接見了洪秀柱，月中卻讓馬英九在馬來西亞碰了一鼻子灰，儼然是要從「九二共識」中剔除「各表」，只留「一中」；但同時間，則未對蔡英文派往秘魯ＡＰＥＣ的宋楚瑜橫加干預，而宋楚瑜行前複誦「兩岸一中、反對台獨」卻留下一些線索。捧洪、卡馬、會宋，北京應是在看蔡英文何時填上那份「未完成的答卷」。
《經濟學人》專刊封面以塔羅牌為背景，占卜二○一七全球趨勢，其中「川普星球」隱喻著一個全球治理的黯淡開端。區域整合進程撲朔迷離，無序博弈更形激烈，台灣卻不自知手上只剩什麼牌。蔡英文必須清醒地認知，若不想步陳水扁後塵，就必須拋棄虛幻主張，大膽更張路線，否則因循泄沓以致失機僨事，她將淪為深綠裹脅的政治傀儡。機會之窗稍縱即逝，莫待答卷收走，猛虎餓成病貓。
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