United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 26, 2016
Executive Summary: Once the United States pulls out of Asia, confrontation between the US and Mainland China is expected to ease. Taiwan will feel less pressure to choose sides. This is a turning point. Taiwan can use this to review its one-sided foreign policy and adopt a Taiwan-centric rebalancing policy. The crux of the problem is the DPP government's anti-Mainland attitude. It lacks the courage to face reality. Since May, the Tsai government has repeatedly misjudged the international situation. It shows no signs of change. As a result, it can only paint itself further into a corner. Think about it. How can a government that pointedly ignores Mainland China, Asia's largest economy, possibly champion Asian co-operation?
Full Text Below:
Donald Trump has publicly announced that he will pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) on the very day he takes office. Shinzo Abe, who was still rushing about, could not conceal his dismay. A TPP without the US is meaningless. Tsai Ing-wen, who was attending the Asia-Pacific Chamber of Commerce, used the opportunity to urge Asian nations to follow through on economic integration. Her words were pretty. But does the president really think anyone will respond?
Trump's personnel appointments show that for the next four years the United States will be under the sway of the far right. For the world at large, Trump's announcement that he will pull the US out of the TPP, signaled the beginning of America's "new isolationism". The global trade order will be seriously impacted. For Taiwan in particular, heavily reliant on exports to the United States, restarting an economy that has been stalled for years will be harder than ever.
The TPP was the single-handed creation of the United States. Its purpose was to counter Mainland China's RCEP. This cross border economic agreement was originally between New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, and Brunei. It was later expanded, becoming a TPP with 12 member nations. The TPP was more a strategic goal than an economic partnership. Obama's Asian Rebalancing strategy forced nations on both sides of the Pacific to choose sides. When the US retreated, Malaysia and Vietnam jumped ship and returned to the RCEP. Only Japan drew its sword and looked around with alarm. Taiwan was even more embarrassed. For years it waited patiently for the second round, hoping to join. Now its dream has been shattered. Where will it go from here?
Japan is obsessed with the TPP. It desperately wants to ally with the United States to contain Mainland China. It wants TPP to cement the relationship between the two nations. Abenomics sees TPP as part of its economic strategy. It wants to use trade liberalization to promote economic restructuring. But the TPP has run aground. This will greatly diminish Abe's economic power. It will also undermine the US-Japan strategic partnership. Japan will be the biggest victim of the US withdrawal from the TPP.
The TPP was originally a set of economic “rules of the game” for small nations. It set a high threshold. It imposed high standards. It removed all tariff barriers, no exceptions. It fully liberalized financial services, telecommunications and other service industries as well. This favored small nations, but disfavored large nations. The United States sacrificed its domestic market for the sake of TPP. No wonder Trump thinks the TPP is a disaster for the United States.
Long time strategic deployment and hegemonic intervention by the United States has prevented Asia from forming its own free trade area. Now however, the US is withdrawing from the TPP. The Mainland Chinese-led RCEP will rush in to fill this vacuum. Mainland China is conducting itself in a low-keyed manner. It has declared its intent to continue Asian integration. It has stressed that the real leader of the RCEP is ASEAN. But with the United States withdrawal from the TPP, Mainland China will undoubtedly be the biggest beneficiary.
Once Trump takes office, it will be “America First”. He will not sacrifice US economic interests in order to maintain global hegemony. Instead, economic development will come first. The United States will change from military hegemonism to trade hegemonism. This will change the strategic map for global political and economic power, and determine Taiwan's fate.
What impact will an Asia without the TPP have on Taiwan? When the DPP took office, it brought cross-Strait relations to a standstill. It blindly followed in Japan's footsteps, and deliberately ignored the Mainland led RCEP and ASEAN. It bet Taiwan's foreign trade chips on the TPP. The TPP dream has now evaporated. Taiwan's sole alternative is to return to bilateral FTAs. Sadly, the DPP refuses to rethink Taiwan's development strategy based on the Big Picture. Instead, it is betting on the Taiwan-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. It has forgotten that Taiwan has failed to improve its long-term deficit relationship with Japan. Its eagerness to become an economic vassal is the main cause of Taiwan's current plight.
In fact, once the United States pulls out of Asia, confrontation between the US and Mainland China is expected to ease. Taiwan will feel less pressure to choose sides. This is a turning point. Taiwan can use this to review its one-sided foreign policy and adopt a Taiwan-centric rebalancing policy. The crux of the problem is the DPP government's anti-Mainland attitude. It lacks the courage to face reality. Since May, the Tsai government has repeatedly misjudged the international situation. It shows no signs of change. As a result, it can only paint itself further into a corner.
Think about it. How can a government that pointedly ignores Mainland China, Asia's largest economy, possibly champion Asian co-operation?
美國退出ＴＰＰ，台灣因應之道何在？
2016-11-26 聯合報
川普公開宣稱，他上任首日，就將宣布美國退出「跨太平洋戰略經濟夥伴協議」（ＴＰＰ）。對此，仍在奔走的安倍難掩失望說，一個沒有美國的ＴＰＰ即失去意義。蔡英文則藉著出席亞太工商總會的機會喊話，盼亞洲國家扮演經濟整合角色。話雖說得漂亮，但蔡總統認為空氣中將傳來什麼樣的回聲？
從川普連日任命的人事看，未來四年，美國已無法免於極右派當道的命運。對世界而言，川普宣布退出ＴＰＰ，更吹響了美國「新孤立主義」的號角，全球貿易秩序將受嚴重衝擊。對於高度倚賴對美出口的台灣而言，在低谷徘徊多年的經濟，恐怕更難有起色。
從協議本質看，ＴＰＰ是由美國一手形塑，目的是為了抗衡中國大陸引領的ＲＣＥＰ。美國把原由紐西蘭、智利、新加坡、汶萊四國組成的跨國經濟協議，擴大成擁有十二個會員國的ＴＰＰ，這即註定ＴＰＰ是一個「戰略目標」大於「經濟夥伴關係」的組織。在歐巴馬的「亞洲再平衡」大旗下，太平洋兩岸的國家不得不選邊站；但當美國勢力消褪後，馬來西亞及越南便決定跳船選擇回到ＲＣＥＰ，唯獨日本還在拔劍四顧心茫茫。更尷尬的是台灣，多年來一心一意等著爭取第二輪入會，如今目標變成泡影，我們要朝哪裡前進？
日本之所以執著於ＴＰＰ，除了為聯美抗中，更把它當成日美關係的黏著劑。安倍經濟學也把ＴＰＰ當成經濟戰略的一環，要以貿易自由化來帶動經濟結構改革。如今ＴＰＰ觸礁，不但將使安倍經濟學的威力大打折扣，美日戰略夥伴關係也勢必受到衝擊，日本將成為美國退出ＴＰＰ的最大受害者。
從協議內容看，ＴＰＰ原是小國間的經濟遊戲規則，強調高門檻的規範標準，不僅要一視同仁撤除關稅壁壘，還要全面開放金融、電信等服務產業；這對小國有利，卻對大國不利。亦即，美國其實是以犧牲國內市場來換取ＴＰＰ的主導權；也難怪，川普認為ＴＰＰ對美國將是一場災難。
長期以來，在美國的戰略部署與霸權干預下，亞洲一直無法形成自己的自由貿易區，如今美國要退出ＴＰＰ，中國引領的ＲＣＥＰ將適時填補這個真空。中國雖然在此際表現得相當低調，聲稱將持續推動「亞洲一體化」政策，也強調東協才是ＲＣＥＰ真正的主導者；但美國退出ＴＰＰ，中國無疑將是最大受益者。
可以預見的是，川普上台後，在美國利益優先下，將不會再犧牲自身經濟利益來維持其世界霸權的角色。同時，在經濟發展為先的原則下，美國將從軍事霸權主義轉為貿易霸權主義，這將改變全球政經權力版圖，也左右著台灣的命運。
一個沒有ＴＰＰ的亞洲，對台灣將產生什麼影響？民進黨上台後，不僅將兩岸關係帶入僵局，更一味追隨日本的腳步，刻意忽視中國和東協主導的ＲＣＥＰ，把台灣對外經濟的籌碼全押在ＴＰＰ。而今ＴＰＰ的美景幻滅，台灣恐怕只能走回雙邊ＦＴＡ的道路。可悲的是，民進黨不思從整體形勢重新思考台灣的發展戰略，卻轉而寄希望於「台日經濟夥伴協議」，似渾然忘了台灣對日本長期的逆差關係無能改善，卻自甘淪為經濟附庸，正是當前深陷困境的主要肇因。
事實上，美國一旦退出亞洲，美中對峙可望趨於緩和，台灣面臨選邊的壓力將會減小。這原是一個轉機，台灣可趁此檢討過去一面倒的對外政策，轉而採取以台灣為中心的「再平衡」政策。癥結在，民進黨政府在反中思維作祟下，始終缺乏面對現實的勇氣。五月以來，蔡政府面對國際情勢頻頻誤判，卻看不出它有調整的跡象；其結果，只會把自己逼到死角。
試想，一個無視亞洲最大經濟體中國存在的政府，又如何倡言亞洲共同合作呢？
No comments:
Post a Comment