China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 10, 2016
Executive Summary: The United States has just undergone an exceedingly ugly election campaign. It has elected the highly controversial Donald Trump. For many dissatisfied Americans, Trump was not necessarily better. But voting for Hillary was definitely not better. Of the two, they chose Trump. Trump may have allowed America to experience a catharsis, replete with Internet era flame wars. But as far as the rest of the world is concerned, this marks the beginning of an era of uncertainty and instability.
Full Text Below:
Donald Trump is now the 45th president of the United States. The anxiety that gripped the United States and the world prior to the election has finally ended. But even greater anxiety lies ahead. How will the United States heal its wounds? How will the world avoid falling into disarray? The challenges facing Trump have only just begun.
Trump has gone from New York's Fifth Avenue to Washington, DC's Pennsylvania Avenue. He has gone from business tycoon to the world's most powerful political leader. A year and a half ago, before he announced his candidacy, nearly all the experts thought he was a flash in the pan. Who knew he would defeat 16 other candidates within his own party and become the Republican Party challenger to the highly-connected, highly credentialed Hillary Clinton? Before the election, his poll numbers rarely exceeded those of Hillary Clinton. Nearly 70% of all respondents believed he would lose. The US mainstream media almost unanimously predicted that the United States would elect its first female president. Instead Trump became the first president of the United States never to have held public office or served in the military.
The mainstream media and experts were staggered. Voters found not just the White House in the hands of the Republican Party, but also the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Trump Era has arrived. What's next?
Trump often shocked people with his language. He put people down, only to undermine his own image. He became a rarity in United States elections. His exchanges with opponents often ended with personal attacks. The United States has long sent observers abroad to evaluate other nations' elections. Who knew this time the United States would become the object of foreign observation and evaluation? If Trump fails to change his “enfant terrible” manner, he will continue undermining the image of the United States.
Fortunately in his victory speech, he began to use more elegant rhetoric to refer to his opponents. He stressed the need for humility, gratitude, and unity. He began to heal the nation's wounds. Nevertheless many of his policies remain chaotic and unclear. For example, he advocates the abolition of Obamacare. But tens of millions of low-income families in the United States depend on Obamacare. Can he really end it? Some of his political proposals are highly unusual. He would build a wall along the United States Mexico border to stop the inflow of illegal immigrants. He would withdraw US military protection for Japan. He would review and even terminate agreements with foreign countries. Just what the future holds has become a matter of concern.
Take the reassessment of military alliances for example. If Japan is worried about its own security, it may begin large-scale rearmament. This could lead to an arms race in Northeast Asia. Is this something the United States wants to see? If the THAAD anti-missile system is re-evaluated, how will South Korea react? Will it increase its military buildup? When faced with North Korea and Mainland China, will Japan and South Korea develop nuclear weapons? What will the world look like then?
The relationship between the United States and Mainland China is another concern. The Obama administration's "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" strategy was Hillary Clinton's brainchild. This strategy would prevent trade protectionism. Therefore it proposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) to exclude Mainland China. It would reestablish the United States' role in the Western Pacific, especially in the South China Sea, to suppress PLA military action. Under Trump, the TPP would be terminated. The "Asian-Pacific rebalancing" strategy would become unsustainable. A Trump administration and Beijing might need to reach a new consensus. Are not the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, and other nations adjusting their China policies?
Trump wants Japan and South Korea to spend more on their own defense. Will Taiwan have to spend more on national defense in the future? Trump opposes United States intervention in international affairs. How will he view the Taiwan Strait issue? He and Russian President Putin are buddy buddy. Syria and other Middle East problems may take a turn for the better. What kind of relationship will he develop with Xi Jinping? Will it be like the one President Nixon developed with Mao Zedong? How will this affect Taiwan? Taiwan cannot take these matters lightly.
Polls show that 85% of Europeans do not believe Trump will "do the right thing in international affairs". But election rhetoric does not necessarily reflect reality. Election rhetoric does not necessarily represent policy direction. When Reagan ran for president, he vowed to resume diplomatic relations with the Republic of China. But once he took office, he signed the August 17 Communiqué which did great harm to Taiwan. Bush Jr. criticized Beijing during his first campaign speech on foreign policy. He called Mainland China a "strategic competitor". But once Bush became president, he visited the Mainland China more frequently than any other president. In 2008, the United States elected Barack Obama, its first black president. He garnered considerable international praise. After taking office less than a year, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. But before his two terms were up, he has spread flames of war all over the globe. Refugees and terrorist attacks were everywhere. His halo as a peacemaker was thoroughly tarnished.
The United States has just undergone an exceedingly ugly election campaign. It has elected the highly controversial Donald Trump. For many dissatisfied Americans, Trump was not necessarily better. But voting for Hillary was definitely not better. Of the two, they chose Trump. Conservative voters in the United States are fed up with Hillary's liberalism. They look forward to the return to traditional values. They have pinned their hopes on Trump.
Trump may have allowed America to experience a catharsis, replete with Internet era flame wars. But as far as the rest of the world is concerned, this marks the beginning of an era of uncertainty and instability.
全球進入不確定、不安定狀態
2016/11/10 中國時報
川普當選美國第45任總統，全美乃至全世界終於結束了選前的不安等待，然而，更大的不安卻橫梗在前。美國如何療傷止痛，全球如何避免陷入秩序瓦解，川普面對的考驗才剛開始。
從紐約第五大道邁向華府賓州大道，川普已從企業鉅子轉身成為全球首強領導人。1年半前他宣布參選總統，幾乎所有專家都認為只是曇花一現，不料他硬是打敗16位黨內候選人，代表共和黨挑戰人脈、政治資歷極為深厚的希拉蕊‧柯林頓。大選投票前，他的民調支持度鮮少超過希拉蕊，近7成受訪者認為他必然敗陣，美國主流媒體也幾乎一面倒認為，美國必將出現首位女總統，但他硬是成為美國歷來第一位從未服行公職或軍職的總統。
在主流媒體與專家的錯愕聲中，選民發現，不止白宮落入共和黨之手，參議院、眾議院的多數黨地位也悉數由共和黨繼續掌控。「川普時代」就此來臨，這將是一個什麼樣的景象？
川普常作驚人之語，卻常是損人之語，往往反傷自己的形象，也成為美國選舉的異數。他與對手的相互批判，最終流於人身攻擊。從來美國派員赴外國觀察、品評選舉，沒想到這回美國成了被外國觀察、品評的對象。他放言無忌的習性若不改，勢將繼續傷害美國的形象。
還好，勝選演說中，他一開始就使用優雅詞藻讚揚對手，並強調謙卑、感恩、團結，開始彌平傷痕。然而他的若干政策走向如何卻依然混沌未明。例如他主張取消歐記健保制度，可是數千萬美國低收入戶因為歐巴馬才享有的健保，真的就此終結？尤其他某些大異於美國政治傳統的主張，例如在美、墨邊境築起高牆，以阻絕非法移民；撤除美國對日本的軍事保護；重新檢視、甚至不惜廢除與外國的協定等等，未來究竟如何發展，令人關注。
以重估軍事同盟關係一事為例，如果日本對自身安全感到疑慮，可能因此更大規模地重建軍備，勢將引起東北亞軍事競賽，這是美國樂見的嗎？如果重估「薩德」反飛彈系統，南韓會如何反應，是否也將加強建軍？獨自面對北韓及中國大陸，日、韓會不會發展核武？屆時世局又是什麼模樣？
美國與中國大陸之間的關係是另一個疑慮重點。歐巴馬政府的「亞太再平衡」戰略是希拉蕊設計的，在這個戰略下，經濟方面要預防貿易保護主義，因此推出《跨太平洋夥伴協定》（TPP），把中國大陸排除在外；在安全上要重振美國在西太平洋，尤其在南海的角色，壓制共軍的行動。如今川普當政，TPP就此結束，「亞太再平衡」難以為繼。川普新政府與北京之間可能必須找到新妥協點，君不見菲律賓、馬來西亞、泰國等國都在調整中國政策嗎？
川普主張日、韓分攤更多軍費，準此，日後台灣是否也須花更多錢於國防？川普反對美國干預國際，他會怎麼看待台海議題？他與俄羅斯總統普丁惺惺相惜，敘利亞等中東難題可能因此有轉機；他會與習近平發展出什麼樣的關係，會不會像尼克森總統與毛澤東之間那樣？這對台灣又有什麼影響？台灣不可掉以輕心。
民調顯示，85%的歐洲人不相信川普會「在國際事務方面做正確的事」。然而選戰印象未必反映真實，選戰語言更不能代表政策走向。雷根競選總統時說要與中華民國復交，豈料上台後卻簽署了對台灣傷害至大的《八一七公報》。小布希競選時的首次外交演說就批評北京政權，並說中國大陸是美國的「戰略競爭者」，然而小布希後來竟然成了訪問大陸最頻繁的美國總統。2008年，美國選出首位黑人總統歐巴馬，備受國際讚揚，上任才不到1年就獲得諾貝爾和平獎，但兩任未完，全球烽火四起，難民、恐攻事件頻傳，和平光環消磨殆盡。
美國經歷醜陋不堪的選戰，選出備受爭議的川普。然而對很多不滿現狀的美國人而言，川普也許意味著「不一定會更好」，但若投給希拉蕊，意味著「一定不會更好」，兩相權衡，還是川普吧。對美國保守派選民而言，他們厭倦了希拉蕊代表的自由派，他們企盼重歸傳統價值，川普是希望之所寄。
川普也許宣洩了網路時代美國「幹譙」的宣洩，但對世界而言，卻是不確定、不安定的開始。
No comments:
Post a Comment