The 2009 Elections, A Knock-Off of the 2008 Election?

The 2009 Elections, A Knock-Off of the 2008 Election?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 15, 2009


Less than eight months from now the counties and municipalities will be holding local elections. It now appears that the year end County and Municipality Elections will be a facsimile of last year's Presidential Election. This tells us that for the past year the entire island has remained mired in the political morass of the Presidential Election, unable to go beyond it, unable to extricate itself.

The major issues in this year's County and Municipal Elections are, for the most part, identical to last year's Presidential Election.

One. During last year's Presidential Election, the Democratic Progressive Party engaged in serious infighting over whether to "Support Chen Shui-bian" or "Dump Chen Shui-bian." This year the infighting is worse. During last year's Presidential Election, Frank Hsieh tried to distance himself from Ah-Bian, but couldn't quite pull it off. Although Ah-Bian had already been marginalized, the two sides maintained their decorum. This year however, Chen Shui-bian has already opened fire on "Tsai, Su, Hsieh, Wu" (Tsai Ing-wen, Su Tseng-tsang, Frank Hsieh, and Wu Nai-jen). He has also declared Tainan County the epicenter of his Shock and Awe campaign. Chen Tang-shan asked, "How can a political party dominated by heartless people transform the nation into a society with heart?" That the tense atmosphere has yet to ease comes as no surprise. This year's Democratic Progressive Party in-fighting may well be worse than last year's.

Two. During last year's Presidential Election, the Frank Hsieh/Su Tseng-chang election team's final campaign theme was the accusation that the KMT was creating a "One China Market," in which "Taiwan men will be unable to find work. Taiwan women will be unable to find husbands. Taiwan children will end up as child labor in Heilongjiang." This year, given the fourth Chiang/Chen Summit in the second half of the year, the DPP will probably rail against ECFA. Therefore it is certain to become the theme of the County and Municipal Elections. In which case the County and Municipal Election campaigns will heat up whether one wants them to or not. The final card is bound to be the tired old accusation that the KMT is "pro-Beijing" and "selling out Taiwan."

Last year's Presidential Election campaign was two intertwined themes. The first was whether to "Support Chen Shui-bian" or "Dump Chen Shui-bian," and "Who is selling out Taiwan?" The year end County and Municipal Elections will revisit these themes and intensify them. DPP infighting over whether to "Support Chen Shui-bian" or "Dump Chen Shui-bian" will intensify. Now that ECFA is on the table, allegations that the KMT is "selling out Taiwan" are even less likely to end.

This means that Ma Ying-jeou's attempt to use his landslide victory at the polls last year to educate or win over those who oppose him has failed. At least his hope of changing the Democratic Progressive Party has been dashed. Meanwhile, ever since the Democratic Progressive Party's debacle in 2008, it has sought to extricate itself from endless controversies over whether to "Support Chen Shui-bian" or "Dump Chen Shui-bian." It has sought to transcend its past positions on cross-Strait policy and national identity. But for the time being its hopes have also been dashed.

For both the Pan Blue and Pan Green camps, the 2008 Presidential Election was a rare historical opportunity. It initially seemed that Ma Ying-jeou might be able to use his victory at the polls to reunite a divided nation, and that Tsai Ing-wen might have been able to use the DPP's defeat to faciliate the party's transformation. Now it appears both have failed. Otherwise, why is the year end election turning into a knock-off of last year's Presidential Election?

Tsai Ing-wen's methods suggest that she will not retreat from her decision to "Dump Chen Shui-bian." She finds herself in a "Do or Die" situation. Therefore she must intensify her rhetoric on issues such as ECFA. If she wants to maintain control over a "Democratic Progressive Party without Chen Shui-bian," she must play issues such as "sovereignty" and "Taiwan-centric thought" and ECFA for all they are worth. She must assure Pan Green supporters that although the DPP is no longer the party of Chen Shui-bian, it remains the party of Taiwan independence. If Tsai Ing-wen fails to persuade its supporters, she will not be able to dump Chen Shui-bian. But if Tsai Ing-wen treats supporting Taiwan independence as a substitute for supporting Chen Shui-bian, and denounces ECFA as "selling out Taiwan," the Democratic Progressive Party will paint itself into a corner.

As for Ma Ying-jeou, he failed to make take proper advantage of his 2008 election victory. He retreated from the frontlines. He refused to assume the party chairmanship. Not only did he fail to seize the opportunity, he drove his own ratings and his party's ratings so low they became an embarrassment. He relieved the Democratic Progressive Party of external pressure to reform. He ensured that the Pan Blue and Pan Green camps would remain mired in a McCarthyite struggle over "Who is pro-China?" and "Who is selling out Taiwan?" In 2008, the public mood and political circumstances presented Ma Ying-jeou with the perfect opportunity to do the right thing. But Ma Ying-jeou failed to live up to the public's expectations, and missed a rare historical opportunity.

In democratic politics, every election constitutes "extra innings." Therefore going into extra innings is a matter of course. As long as each election helps unify the nation and achieve consensus, it can advance constitutional rule. Today however, the 2009 elections, remain mired in mud-slinging over how to deal with Chen Shui-bian and "Who is selling out Taiwan?" We would like to ask Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen, haven't you let down your nation and your fellow citizens?

二○○九選舉是二○○八大選的山寨版？
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.04.15 06:09 am

只剩不到八個月，縣市選舉就要投票。如今看來，年底的縣市選舉，在選戰議題的大結構上，很明顯地竟然仍是去年總統大選的複製與延續；這顯示，一年多來，整個國家仍然深陷於總統大選當時想要跳脫的政治泥淖中，無以超越，不能自拔。

今年縣市選舉與去年總統大選，在選戰議題的大結構上，有兩大雷同：

一、去年總統大選，民進黨陷於「挺扁／去扁」的嚴重內鬥；今年亦然，尚且變本加厲。去年總統大選，謝長廷奮力與扁切割而不可得；最後雖在大體上已將扁邊緣化，然雙方尚未撕破臉。但今年陳水扁已與「蔡蘇謝吳」公然反目，又宣布台南縣是「震央」，陳唐山更質問：「一群無情無義的人把持的政黨，如何帶領國家成為一個有情有義的社會？」此種氛圍倘未及時緩解，可以預估，今年的民進黨內鬥，或將更甚於去年。

二、去年總統大選，謝蘇配最後主打的議題是「一中市場」、「查甫找無工／查某找無尪」；今年則ＥＣＦＡ可望成為下半年江陳四次會的議題，因而亦必將成為縣市選舉的主題。如此一來，縣市選舉的選戰議題的高度與熱度，也就想低也低不下來了；最後勢必又以「是否向中國傾斜」大打泥巴仗，再度上演「賣台集團」的老戲碼。

也就是說，去年總統大選選戰議題的大結構，是以「挺扁／去扁」與「賣台集團」為兩條像麻花一般交纏在一起的主軸構成；今年底的縣市選舉，這根麻花非但將全盤拷貝複製出爐，而且可能變本加厲；亦即，民進黨「挺扁／去扁」將鬥得更兇，而ＥＣＦＡ既是已端上檯面的案子，「賣台集團」的惡戰當然更是難以善罷甘休。

此一情勢顯示：去年總統大選以來，馬英九想要藉其高得票率來同化、教化或感化其反對者的期望，迄未實現，至少在他想要改變民進黨這一方面已告落空；相對而言，民進黨自二○○八大敗後，原本期待能跳出「挺扁／去扁」的泥淖，並在兩岸政策及國家認同上有所自我超越及昇華，如今也已不存任何希望。

二○○八總統大選，對藍綠陣營而言，可謂皆曾是極為難得的歷史機遇。原本想像，馬英九可乘勝整合這個破碎的國家，而蔡英文亦可就此帶動民進黨轉型；但如今看來，二人至少到現在皆是失敗者。否則，年底選舉的議題架構，怎麼儼然竟是去年大選的複刻版或山寨版？

觀察蔡英文現今的手法，她在「去扁」上可能不會退讓，且也似已一退即無死所；因而，她相對地在ＥＣＦＡ之類的議題上，勢須升高戰火。也就是說，她若想要操作一個「沒有陳水扁的民進黨」，她就要更加升高關於「主權／台灣主體性」如ＥＣＦＡ的議題，使民進黨在綠色支持者心目中，仍可保有曖曖昧昧的一個「沒有陳水扁的台獨黨」的形象。倘若蔡英文不能給綠色選民留下如此印象，她就更不可能切割陳水扁；但是，倘若蔡英文欲以「挺獨」交換「去扁」，又把ＥＣＦＡ唱成「賣台集團」的戲碼，則民進黨恐就再也轉型無望了。

至於馬英九，未能在第一時間準確操持二○○八勝選的優勢，自縛於「第一線／第二線」及「兼不兼黨主席」的框架中，非但失去先機，使自己及國民黨的民意支持度趨至難堪的地步，也使民進黨失去了轉型的外部壓力，遂亦使藍綠鬥爭仍陷於「向中傾斜／賣台集團」的紅帽子大戰之中。二○○八年，民意與時局運勢都曾給了馬英九極佳條件，但馬英九辜負及錯失了這場難得的歷史機遇。

在民主政治中，每一場選舉，都是「延長賽」。所以，一場接一場的延長賽，是理所當然；但只要每場選舉，在國家整合及政策共識上能有所精進昇華，即是民主憲政的成長與成就。如今，二○○九的選舉，卻仍陷於「陳水扁」及「賣台集團」兩個二○○八年留下來的大泥淖中，請問馬英九與蔡英文，你們如何對得起國家與人民？